| Mixed |
Factual |
31 Mar 2026 |
The recent corporate layoffs were not caused by AI.
Factual · 31 Mar 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
31 Mar 2026 |
He said every large company is overstaffed by at least 25%, and that he thinks most large companies are overstaffed by 50% and a lot of them by 75%.
Factual · 31 Mar 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
31 Mar 2026 |
Until December (2025), AI was not good enough to do the jobs that companies are now cutting.
Factual · 31 Mar 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
31 Mar 2026 |
Fears of AI-driven mass labor displacement, based on the lump of labor fallacy, will again prove wrong.
Prediction · 31 Mar 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
31 Mar 2026 |
Essentially every large company is overstaffed.
Factual · 31 Mar 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
The price of AI is falling faster than Moore's Law.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
7 Jan 2026 |
Falling AI token prices will drive huge demand for AI.
Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
The DeepSeek model is completely open-source and anyone can download and run it.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Prediction |
7 Jan 2026 |
It is very likely that AI chips will become cheap and abundant within five years.
Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
Leading AI application companies start with one model but soon use 12, 50 or more models.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
Many of the world's best AI researchers are only 22, 23 or 24 years old.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
DeepSeek's model is on par with Claude 3.5 Sonnet, GPT-4o and Gemini on almost all benchmarks.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Prediction |
7 Jan 2026 |
With hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars being invested, the unit cost of AI companies will drop sharply over the next decade.
Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
Within 6 to 12 months of a frontier model's release, a small model with the same capabilities appears.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
7 Jan 2026 |
Andreessen said he tends to think the AI industry will be structured similarly to the computer industry, with a very small number of giant models running in huge data centers and a cascade of smaller models below.
Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
The revenue growth rate of leading AI companies is faster than that of any previous technology wave Andreessen has seen.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
7 Jan 2026 |
AI models will cascade down to very small models running on single chips embedded in every physical object.
Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
Neural networks were explored by a small group of people for about 80 years.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
Consumer AI products commonly have monthly price tiers of $200 or $300.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
In the 1980s, when Andreessen was in college, AI was a niche field and everyone thought it would never come true.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
There are 5 billion people on Earth using some version of mobile broadband Internet.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
7 Jan 2026 |
The smartest AI models will always be at the top, while small models will be greater in number.
Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
Within less than 12 months, four or five Chinese companies caught up to the frontier of the AI industry.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
Cursor, though it started by calling large models, is building its own AI model.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due |
Prediction |
7 Jan 2026 |
Andreessen said he highly doubts that the product forms people use today (as of January 2026) will be the same in five or ten years.
Prediction · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
7 Jan 2026 |
China's open-source model strategy has created global price competition in AI.
Factual · 7 Jan 2026 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
Nov 2025 |
Putting AI into physical objects that move around the world will bring closer an integrated intellectual and physical experience.
Prediction · Nov 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
Nov 2025 |
Robots with AI will be able to gather much more real-world data.
Prediction · Nov 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
Nov 2025 |
He is pretty convinced that AI models will clear the bar of human-level creativity.
Prediction · Nov 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
8 Oct 2025 |
ChatGPT is today a better doctor than your doctor, with almost a hundred percent certainty.
Factual · 8 Oct 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
8 Oct 2025 |
If AI produced hyper-acceleration of productivity, the result would be hyper-deflation of prices.
Prediction · 8 Oct 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
8 Oct 2025 |
AI-driven employment shifts will not happen at anywhere near the velocity people expect.
Prediction · 8 Oct 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mixed |
Factual |
8 Oct 2025 |
A significant percentage of U.S. jobs are licensed, unionized or civil service in a way that means they cannot literally be replaced.
Factual · 8 Oct 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
1 May 2025 |
When AI is doing everything else, venture capital may be one of the last remaining fields people still do.
Prediction · 1 May 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Own records only |
Prediction |
1 May 2025 |
Marc Andreessen says the relationship-driven work of venture capital may be literally timeless, i.e. persist indefinitely despite AI.
Prediction · 1 May 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Political donations in Silicon Valley go 90 to 99% to one party.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
The DOGE effort will turn out very different from previous government-efficiency programs.
Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Marc Andreessen popularized two memes, though he may not have invented them.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
If US debt growth is not fixed, the US will at some point enter a hyper-inflationary spiral and become like Argentina or Brazil.
Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
The Democratic Party figured out that these tech companies were very subject to being controlled.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Own records only |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Marc Andreessen has seen a newspaper columnist get a CEO fired but has not seen a CEO get a columnist fired.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Substack started from scratch and declared up front that it would be a free speech platform.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Silicon Valley voting records show it has been overwhelmingly Democratic, at least historically and for Andreessen's entire time there.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
The person Andreessen was discussing paid $500 million for the operation he says that person funds out of his own pocket.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Own records only |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Andreessen said the Twitter Files are a hundred percent representative of what he has seen at every other one of these companies, and that what happened at Twitter can be assumed to have happened at the others for the most part, certainly in terms of the kind of pressure they got.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
Andreessen said energy independence and large net energy exports are a matter of choice, and that he thinks the new Trump administration will choose to pursue them.
Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
The incoming Trump administration will do as much as it can through executive orders and then use legislation and regulatory changes for the rest.
Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Marc Andreessen is a volunteer for the Trump administration when helpful, does not make its decisions and cannot speak for it.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mixed |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
The Stanford Internet Observatory was basically funded by the federal government to be a third-party censorship operation.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Andreessen said that in 1992 he was asked to implement a nudity filter.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Technology |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
The US Constitution requires Congress to authorize money to be spent by the executive branch.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
If federal (and for state schools, state) taxpayer funding were withdrawn, universities would instantly go bankrupt.
Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Anger over online censorship probably increased enthusiasm among right-leaning voters in the recent US election.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Under the current interpretation of appropriations, a president who does not want to spend appropriated money cannot decline to spend it.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Getting Amish voters to the polls was one of the reasons Trump won the 2024 election.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Incumbent universities, through accreditation, are in complete control of who gets access to federal student loan money.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Marc Andreessen does not speak for DOGE and is not in charge of DOGE.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
The United States is the main place where the world's best and brightest foreign students get educated.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Most of the Republican Party's institutional base were Bush Republicans.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Around 2012-2013, internet companies rapidly pivoted toward social media censorship and content banning.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
Andreessen said he thinks it may be that, with the continued growth of Substack and other new platforms, a tremendous amount of previously forbidden conversations can now shift back into public view, though he did not know that everything would.
Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
Andreessen said he thinks that if taxpayers come to understand the level of crisis, the funding will evaporate.
Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
The US is adding a trillion dollars to the national debt every 100 days, and it is now passing the size of the Defense Department budget and compounding.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
The system that has been built for these people is paid for virtually 100% by taxpayer money.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Marc Andreessen said he politely declined to design the 'breast detection algorithm' he had imagined he would have to build.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Marc Andreessen has made the argument in favour of high-skilled immigration and H-1B visas many times.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Jan 2025 |
Marc Andreessen joined the Facebook board in 2007.
Factual · 26 Jan 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
26 Jan 2025 |
If the debt problem is not fixed, the US will at some point enter a hyperinflationary spiral and become like Argentina or Brazil.
Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
16 Oct 2023 |
Markets are by far the most effective way to lift vast numbers of people out of poverty, and always have been.
Factual · 16 Oct 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
16 Oct 2023 |
Technology is the only perpetual source of economic growth, since natural resource utilization has limits.
Factual · 16 Oct 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
16 Oct 2023 |
The Precautionary Principle was invented to prevent the large-scale deployment of civilian nuclear power.
Factual · 16 Oct 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
16 Oct 2023 |
The only three sources of economic growth are population growth, natural resource utilization, and technology.
Factual · 16 Oct 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
16 Oct 2023 |
Any deceleration of AI development will cost lives.
Prediction · 16 Oct 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
16 Oct 2023 |
Technology-powered productivity growth is the main driver of economic growth, wage growth, and the creation of new industries and jobs.
Factual · 16 Oct 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
16 Oct 2023 |
In a market system, society captures about 98% of the value of technological innovation, a 50:1 ratio to the innovating company's share.
Factual · 16 Oct 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Richard Nixon created a project in 1972 called Project Independence, and proposed building 1,000 new US nuclear reactors.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2 Sep 2023 |
Andreessen guessed that within a couple of years of 2023, the dominant discussion about AI would be the United States or the West versus China.
Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mixed |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
In the research literature, IQ is typically linked to outcomes with a correlation of about 0.4 to 0.5.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Own records only |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Andreessen Horowitz holds certain meetings where everyone puts their phones face down.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Ray Kurzweil kind of took that idea to the next level and applied it specifically to AI.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
The precautionary principle was developed by the German Greens in the 1970s.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly false |
Prediction |
2 Sep 2023 |
The EU may pass a law as soon as October 2023 that effectively bans AI inside the EU.
Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
That did not happen, after the President created the EPA and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which aimed to prevent it.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
2 Sep 2023 |
There will be Chinese AI systems that embody Communist ideology.
Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Chinese researchers had just published a paper on a model they built that is sort of close to GPT-4 quality.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Almost nothing is 40% causative of anything, apart from a very small number of exceptions.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
2 Sep 2023 |
AI will be one of the key technologies shaping the world for hundreds of years, amid a new Cold War dynamic between the US and China.
Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
AI development has a critical mass basically in two places in the world, the United States and China.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Andreessen said that, in his view, virtually all new technologies have historically turned out to be net positive, at least from where we sit today.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
Technology |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
2 Sep 2023 |
Vernor Vinge was probably the origin of the idea of the technological singularity, which Andreessen thought went back to the 1970s.
Factual · 2 Sep 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
The Transformer algorithm, a neural net form that works in a sort of generalized way, was a recent theoretical breakthrough.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
AI development has a critical mass basically in two places in the world, the United States and China.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
The Transformer algorithm was invented in 2017.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
As of June 2023, AI breakthroughs were happening essentially every week.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
GPT-4 has far superior crystallized intelligence to any human.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Freedom-oriented regimes will generally want to make the US bet on AI.
Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
It is entirely possible that fundamentally better neural network architectures will now be invented.
Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Authoritarian-oriented regimes will be tempted to take the Chinese path on AI.
Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
12 Jun 2023 |
People of higher intelligence are less violent and more capable of solving problems.
Factual · 12 Jun 2023 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
12 Jun 2023 |
Many countries around the world will have to make a fundamental choice between US and Chinese AI.
Prediction · 12 Jun 2023 |
AI policy and governance |