Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
67 61 73 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
60 44 76 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 0 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 66 (likely 61 to 72, high confidence), from 105 claims: 94 factual claims, 11 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Marc Andreessen's claims
50 claims
“We have top-end universities, yes, but with the capacity to teach only a microscopic percentage of the 4 million new 18 year olds in the U.S. each year”
Marc Andreessen, a16z co-founder, essay author 18 April 2020 It's Time to Build (a16z)
Top-end universities can teach only a microscopic percentage of the 4 million new 18-year-olds in the US each year.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of April 2020. The claim has two parts: (a) about 4 million new 18-year-olds in the US each year and (b) top-end universities can enroll only a tiny (microscopic) percentage of them. True: Census data show a US 18-year-old cohort of about 4 million (roughly 3.8 to 4.3 million), and the combined first-year enrollment of elite or top-ranked universities (e.g. the Ivy League plus other top-ranked schools) is a small single-digit percentage or less of that cohort. Mostly true: both hold, but the cohort figure is somewhat off (e.g. 3.5 to 3.8 million or 4.3 to 4.6 million), or the share is small but arguably not 'microscopic' (a few percent). Mixed: one part holds and the other clearly does not. Mostly false: the cohort size is badly wrong, or 'top-end' capacity is substantial (around 10% or more) under any reasonable definition. False: both parts are wrong.
Evidence
- College Admissions Doesn't Need to Be So Competitive Arjun Panickssery (Substack) · 7 April 2025
“But in reality, the top 20 schools together enroll about 49,000 students. That’s about 1.3% of the 3.8 million students who graduate high school each year in the United States.”
- College Admissions Doesn't Need to Be So Competitive Arjun Panickssery (Substack) · 7 April 2025
“If you restrict it to the eight Ivy League schools + Stanford + MIT, those ten schools together enroll 17,500 students per year.”
- Annual Estimates of the Civilian Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019 Hawaii State Data Center (hosting U.S. Census Bureau table) · June 2020
“Annual Estimates of the Civilian Population by Single Year of Age and Sex for the United States: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019”
Reasoning
E1 reports that the top 20 US schools together enroll about 49,000 students a year. That is about 1.3% of the 3.8 million students who finish high school each year. E2 reports that the Ivy League plus Stanford and MIT enroll about 17,500 a year, an even smaller share, so the 'tiny percentage' part holds. The cohort figure is only supported indirectly: the 3.8 million in E1 counts high school graduates, not 18-year-olds, and is consistent with a cohort of roughly 4 million. E3 gives the title of a Census single-year-of-age table but quotes no figure, so the 4 million number is not directly confirmed, and E1 dates from 2025 rather than April 2020.
Cite this claim
Marc Andreessen, “Top-end universities can teach only a microscopic percentage of the 4 million new 18-year-olds in the US each year.” (said 18 April 2020). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_038089c8a3b4, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_038089c8a3b4
Claims without a verdict
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