Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
75 61 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 2 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 75 (likely 61 to 88, low confidence), from 12 claims: 12 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Jim Cramer's claims
30 claims
“we have gotten multiple rallies and selloffs since May of 2000, and the pattern is not changing.”
Jim Cramer, on his RealMoney radio show 15 August 2006 RealMoney Radio: Wait Till Tomorrow (TheStreet)
The stock market has had multiple rallies and selloffs since May 2000, and that pattern is not changing.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2006-08-15. The main factual part is that the market had had multiple rallies and selloffs between May 2000 and August 2006. "The pattern is not changing" is a characterisation of the trend up to that date. True: index data (S&P 500 or Nasdaq) show several distinct rallies and selloffs in that period, for example the 2000-2002 bear market, the 2003 rally and the May-June 2006 selloff, and nothing in mid-2006 marks a clear break from that pattern. Mostly true: the pattern holds, but the start date or the characterisation is slightly off. Mixed: the rallies and selloffs occurred, but in mid-2006 the market was in a clearly different regime, for example a steady sustained trend. Mostly false: the market moved largely in one direction over the period, with only minor reversals. False: no multiple rallies and selloffs occurred.
Evidence
- Stocks Are Rallying. Does That Mean the Bear Market Is Ending? Money · 20 July 2022
“Look at the dot-com bust. Between the S&P 500's peak in March 2000 to its low in October 2002, the index lost 49% — but along the way it saw 11 different rallies of 5% or more, according to Bespoke.”
- S&P 500 Historical Prices by Month multpl.com
“| Oct 1, 2002 | 854.63 |”
- 2QTR06 Paul L. Comstock Partners · June 2006
“a rally during the closing days of June masks the full breadth of the sell off.”
- August 2006 Crossing Wall Street Crossing Wall Street (Eddy Elfenbein) · 28 August 2006
“The S&P 500 is poised for its highest close of the summer.”
Reasoning
E1 cites Bespoke: during the S&P 500's fall from March 2000 to October 2002, the index had 11 separate rallies of 5% or more, so it rose and fell repeatedly in the early part of the period. E3, a newsletter from mid-2006, describes a selloff in the second quarter of 2006 and a rally in the closing days of June. E4 shows the S&P 500 near its summer high in late August 2006. Nothing in the evidence points to a clear change of regime by mid-2006. However, none of the items documents the 2003 recovery, and E2 is only a single monthly price, so the evidence for the whole period is incomplete. That gap means parts of the period, such as 2003, are not documented by the evidence, though nothing in the evidence shows the start date or the characterisation to be off.
Cite this claim
Jim Cramer, “The stock market has had multiple rallies and selloffs since May 2000, and that pattern is not changing.” (said 15 August 2006). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_9344c5378844, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9344c5378844
Claims without a verdict
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