Jeff Bezos

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

• Factual claims

  Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

  84 79 88

  High confidence, 90 factual claims resolved. From 15 documents, 1997 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 30 candidates found.

  Not scored: 28 unresolvable, 19 checkable only against their own records.

  See the factual claims

• Predictions

  Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

  Insufficient record: 2 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.

  Not scored: 15 unresolvable, 1 checkable only against their own records. 3 more fall due later.

  Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  See the predictions

• Promises

  Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

  Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

  Not scored: 1 not yet due, 2 checkable only against their own records.

  See the promises

• Guidance

  A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

  Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.

  See the guidance

All types combined: 84 (likely 79 to 88, high confidence), from 90 claims: 90 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.