Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
84 79 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 2 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Guidance
A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.
Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 84 (likely 79 to 88, high confidence), from 90 claims: 90 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Jeff Bezos's claims
1 claim
| Verdict | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved false | Factual | 1999 | Amazon.com's music store became the leading online music retailer in its first full quarter. Factual · 1999 | Economics and markets |
“Our first major product expansion, the Amazon.com music store, became the leading online music retailer in its first full quarter.”
Jeff Bezos, founder and CEO, Amazon.com 1999 Letter to Shareholders (1998) (Amazon IR)
Amazon.com's music store became the leading online music retailer in its first full quarter.
Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of the 1998 letter (published 1999). True: industry data or contemporaneous reports (e.g., Media Metrix or press coverage) show that Amazon's music store, launched in June 1998, led online music retail (ahead of CDnow and N2K) by sales or a similar measure in its first full quarter (Q3 1998). Mostly true: it became the leader on a reasonable measure, with a minor slip in timing or measure (e.g., by Q4 rather than Q3, or by traffic rather than sales). Mixed: it led on one measure and trailed on others. Mostly false: it became a leading but not the top retailer in that quarter, or reached the top only later. False: it clearly trailed competitors in that period.
Evidence
- Competitors Gang Up On Amazon CBS News · 7 October 1998
“Meanwhile, CDnow and N2K are selling more CDs than is Amazon.com, which just got into the music business a few months ago.”
- IT’S TWO-PART HARMONY FOR ONLINE MUSIC RETAILERS New York Daily News · 26 October 1998
“the merger of the top two Net music retailers”
Reasoning
E1 is a CBS News report from 7 October 1998, just after Q3 1998, Amazon's first full quarter selling music. It states that CDnow and N2K were selling more CDs than Amazon.com, which had entered the music business only a few months earlier. E2, from late October 1998, describes a pending merger as joining "the top two Net music retailers". The quote does not name the two companies, but it fits E1's account that two other retailers led the market. E1 reports that CDnow and N2K were selling more CDs than Amazon.com in early October 1998, which meets the criteria for false; E2 refers to a merger of "the top two Net music retailers" without naming them in the quoted text.
Cite this claim
Jeff Bezos, “Amazon.com's music store became the leading online music retailer in its first full quarter.” (said 1999). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_39ca03be1525, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_39ca03be1525
Claims without a verdict
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