Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
84 79 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 2 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Guidance
A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.
Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 84 (likely 79 to 88, high confidence), from 90 claims: 90 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Jeff Bezos's claims
137 claims · page 2 of 2
“We didn’t expect this-25 million customers and $2 billion in sales.”
Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder and CEO, interviewed 2 April 2001 TBT 2001: Jeff Bezos Shares His Cyberspace Odyssey With TWICE (TWICE)
Amazon reached 25 million customers and $2 billion in sales, which it had not expected.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2 April 2001 (the shareholder letter for fiscal 2000). Use Amazon's own published figures for the period the letter refers to. 'Didn't expect' is Bezos's own report of his state of mind and is not tested. Only the figures are tested. True: around the time of the statement, Amazon's reported cumulative customer accounts were about 25 million (roughly 23 to 27 million) and its annual net sales were about $2 billion (roughly $1.8 to $2.2 billion, or the letter clearly refers to a year whose sales were about $2 billion). Mostly true: both figures are approximately right, but one is off by a little more than that (for example, sales of about $2.5 billion described as '$2 billion'), or the letter's reference period differs slightly. Mixed: one figure matches and the other is clearly wrong. Mostly false: the figures are well off but are a distorted version of a real figure, such as a figure from a different year presented as current. False: Amazon's records show customer and sales figures far from 25 million and $2 billion for any period the statement could refer to.
Evidence
- Jeff Bezos' 2000 letter to shareholders Seattle Times (archive) · 14 April 2001
“We served 20 million customers in 2000, up from 14 million in 1999.”
- Jeff Bezos' 2000 letter to shareholders Seattle Times (archive) · 14 April 2001
“Sales grew to $2.76 billion in 2000 from $1.64 billion in 1999.”
- Amazon.com Third-quarter Sales Up 79% Year-Over-Year; Electronics Store Becomes Second-Largest Business At Amazon.com, Surpassing Music Amazon.com · 24 October 2000 Own record
“Amazon.com worldwide cumulative customer accounts increased by over 2.8 million during the quarter to over 25 million as of September 30, 2000.”
Reasoning
The customer figure holds up: Amazon's Q3 2000 release reported more than 25 million cumulative customer accounts as of September 30, 2000 [E3]. The sales figure does not. The fiscal 2000 letter reports sales of $2.76 billion in 2000 and $1.64 billion in 1999 [E2]. Neither year falls in the $1.8–2.2 billion range, and $2.76 billion is further from $2 billion than the 'mostly true' example of $2.5 billion. One figure matches and the other is clearly off, so the claim resolves as mixed.
Cite this claim
Jeff Bezos, “Amazon reached 25 million customers and $2 billion in sales, which it had not expected.” (said 2 April 2001). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_083b3e08564f, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_083b3e08564f
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Jeff Bezos? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.