Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
84 79 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 2 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Guidance
A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.
Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 84 (likely 79 to 88, high confidence), from 90 claims: 90 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Jeff Bezos's claims
4 claims
| Verdict | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly false | Promise | 6 Oct 2025 | Blue Origin will launch its New Glenn vehicle at the end of October or the first week of November 2025, sending NASA's Escapade satellite into orbit around Mars. Promise · 6 Oct 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Factual | 20 Sep 2018 | Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket factory in Florida is a 650,000-square-foot manufacturing facility. Factual · 20 Sep 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Factual | 17 Apr 2017 | Jeff Bezos frequently uses "disagree and commit" on decisions himself. Factual · 17 Apr 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Factual | 2 Apr 2001 | Amazon's U.S. books, music and video segment showed a $125 million operating profit in Q3 2000, its second profitable quarter. Factual · 2 Apr 2001 | Economics and markets |
“That second segment is already profitable, it showed a $125 million operating profit in the third quarter last year, which was its second quarter of profitability.”
Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder and CEO, interviewed 2 April 2001 TBT 2001: Jeff Bezos Shares His Cyberspace Odyssey With TWICE (TWICE)
Amazon's U.S. books, music and video segment showed a $125 million operating profit in Q3 2000, its second profitable quarter.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
The second judge said mixed; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
True if Amazon's Q3 2000 earnings release or 10-Q shows that the U.S. Books, Music and Video (BMV) segment had a pro forma or segment operating profit of about $125 million (between $120 million and $130 million) in Q3 2000, and that this was its second profitable quarter. Mostly true if the profit figure is right but the 'second quarter' detail is slightly off, or if the figure differs by up to 10% on the stated basis. Mixed if the segment was profitable in Q3 2000 but the amount differs substantially. Mostly false if the segment was profitable but by a much smaller or larger amount and it was not its second profitable quarter. False if the segment showed an operating loss in Q3 2000. Note: the actual Q3 2000 figure may be much smaller (for example about $12.5 million); if so, the $125 million claim is false or mostly false according to the size of the gap, and the difference is not treated as a minor slip.
Evidence
- Amazon.com Third-quarter Sales Up 79% Year-Over-Year; Electronics Store Becomes Second-Largest Business At Amazon.com, Surpassing Music Amazon.com, Inc. (press release) · 24 October 2000 Own record
“Amazon.com's U.S. Books, Music and DVD/Video segment fully allocated third-quarter pro forma operating profit was $25 million, or 6% of sales, up from 0% in the same period a year ago.”
- Earnings Reports for July 26 ABC News · 26 July 2000
“The company said that its U.S. book, music and video divisionswere all profitable in the quarter, posting just over $10 millionin gross profits.”
- THE DAY AHEAD: Amazon.com's march to profits still hazy - CNET CNET · 27 April 2000
“When pinned down on an analyst conference call, Jenson did add that Amazon’s book business was profitable in the first quarter.”
Reasoning
Amazon's Q3 2000 earnings release (E1) gives the U.S. Books, Music and DVD/Video segment's fully allocated pro forma operating profit as $25 million (6% of sales), not $125 million. The segment was profitable, but the claimed figure is five times the reported one. The criteria say a gap this large is not a minor slip and should be judged false or mostly false. Independent reports show the U.S. book, music and video divisions were profitable in Q2 2000 (E2) and the book business in Q1 2000 (E3), so it is unclear whether Q3 was the segment's second profitable quarter. Because the segment did make a profit, the claim rates mostly false rather than false.
Cite this claim
Jeff Bezos, “Amazon's U.S. books, music and video segment showed a $125 million operating profit in Q3 2000, its second profitable quarter.” (said 2 April 2001). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_ed20f43f1bf6, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ed20f43f1bf6
Claims without a verdict
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