Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
84 79 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 2 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Guidance
A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.
Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 84 (likely 79 to 88, high confidence), from 90 claims: 90 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Jeff Bezos's claims
35 claims
“No customer ever asked Amazon to create the Prime membership program, but it sure turns out they wanted it, and I could give you many such examples.”
Jeff Bezos, Amazon CEO, shareholder letter 17 April 2017 Jeff Bezos' 2016 Letter to Amazon Shareholders (About Amazon)
No customer asked Amazon to create the Prime membership program, yet customers turned out to want it.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of April 2017. True: accounts of how Prime was created show that the membership program came from inside Amazon and not from customer requests for such a program, and that Prime was widely adopted (for example, strong membership growth by 2017). Requests for free or fast shipping in general do not count as requests for a membership program. Mostly true: the idea came from inside Amazon and customers adopted it, with a minor qualification, for example Prime built on earlier shipping offers. Mixed: the evidence shows customers or partners proposed something close to a paid shipping membership, or adoption was modest. Mostly false: credible accounts show that customer demand for this kind of program directly drove Prime's creation. False: the evidence shows customers explicitly requested a membership program like Prime, or that customers did not want it.
Evidence
- 10 years later, Amazon celebrates Prime’s triumph The Seattle Times · 2 February 2015
“Prime started when an Amazon engineer named Charlie Ward pitched the idea in a digital employee-suggestion box.”
- The making of Amazon Prime, the internet’s most successful and devastating membership program Vox (Recode) · 3 May 2019
“Jeff said, “Well, hey, it looks like Super Saver Shipping is working really well for us. Can you bring me some similar ideas for faster shipping?” That was the first time, sometime in October 2004, that the idea kind of surfaced.”
- 10 years later, Amazon celebrates Prime’s triumph The Seattle Times · 2 February 2015
“He noted that the $99-a-year service, which offers shipping on millions of products at no additional cost, boosted its worldwide paid membership 53 percent last year”
- Inside Amazon Prime’s ‘explosive’ growth: 10 million members and profitable GeekWire · 12 March 2013
“The $79/year Amazon Prime subscription service has experienced rapid growth since late 2011, reaching an estimated 10 million members as of the end of 2012, with the potential to reach 25 million members by 2017.”
Reasoning
Two independent accounts say Prime came from inside Amazon. E1 says an engineer, Charlie Ward, pitched it through an employee suggestion box, and E2 says Bezos asked staff in October 2004 for faster-shipping ideas. Neither mentions customers asking for a membership program. Adoption was strong: E4 cites an estimate of about 10 million members by the end of 2012, and E3 reports that worldwide paid membership grew 53 percent in 2014. The one qualification is that E2 shows Prime grew out of the earlier Super Saver Shipping offer, which matches the criteria's example for "mostly true".
Cite this claim
Jeff Bezos, “No customer asked Amazon to create the Prime membership program, yet customers turned out to want it.” (said 17 April 2017). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_ea7aaa56cd25, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ea7aaa56cd25
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Jeff Bezos? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.