Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
84 79 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 2 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Guidance
A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.
Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 84 (likely 79 to 88, high confidence), from 90 claims: 90 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Jeff Bezos's claims
35 claims
“The compound annual growth rate for our first-party business in that time period is 25%.”
Jeff Bezos, Amazon CEO, shareholder letter 11 April 2019 Here's Jeff Bezos' annual shareholder letter (CNBC)
Amazon's first-party business grew at a compound annual rate of 25% from 1999 to 2018, from $1.6 billion to $117 billion.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Use Amazon's reported first-party sales for 1999 and 2018. Count as first-party the online-store/product sales the company itself reported, as Bezos's 2018 shareholder letter used the term. Compute the compound annual growth rate over the 19 years. True: the reported start and end figures are about $1.6B and about $117B (each within ~5%), and the CAGR rounds to 25% (24.5%–25.5%). Mostly true: the CAGR is 23.5%–26.5%, or one endpoint figure is slightly off (within ~10%) and the 25% rate still holds roughly. Mixed: the CAGR is 22%–28%, or the endpoints are materially wrong but the rate is roughly right. Mostly false: the CAGR is 20%–30%, or the figures measure something other than first-party sales and are presented as first-party. False: the CAGR is outside 20%–30%, or the endpoint figures are wrong outright.
Evidence
- Document 1 - file: amzn-20181231x10k.htm - SEC.gov U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2018)
“Net sales include product and service sales. Product sales represent revenue from the sale of products and related shipping fees and digital media content where we record revenue gross.”
- Document 1 - file: amzn-20181231x10k.htm - SEC.gov U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2018)
“| Consolidated | $ | 135,987 | | | $ | 177,866 | | | $ | 232,887 | |”
- AMZN-2018.12.31-EX99.1_013119_wdesk_1230PM Amazon.com, Inc. (Business Wire press release) · 31 January 2019
“Includes product sales and digital media content where we record revenue gross.”
- 0000891020-00-000151.txt U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Amazon.com, Inc. registration statement/prospectus filing, 2000) · 2000
“Net sales for the quarter ended December 31, 1999 were $676 million, an increase of 167% over net sales of $253 million for the fourth quarter of 1998.”
- Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal year ended December 31, 2018 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Amazon.com, Inc.) · 31 January 2019
“| | 2016 | | 2017 | | 2018 | | Net Sales: | | | | | | | Online stores (1) | $ | 91,431 | | | $ | 108,354 | | | $ | 122,987 | |”
- AMAZON.COM ANNOUNCES FOURTH QUARTER SALES UP 20% TO $72.4 BILLION Amazon.com, Inc. (via Business Wire) · 31 January 2019
“Third-party sales are growing faster than first-party sales, and nearly 200,000 small and medium-sized businesses surpassed $100,000 in sales in Amazon’s stores in 2018.”
- Amazon Gross Merchandise Volume $277 Billion in 2018 Marketplace Pulse · 12 April 2019
“$160 billion is how much third-party sellers sold on Amazon in 2018. An estimated $30 billion more than they did in 2017. Amazon’s first-party sales amounted to $117 billion.”
- Amazon.com Announces Profitability In U.S.-Based Book Sales, Financial Results for Fourth Quarter 1999 Amazon.com, Inc. (BUSINESS WIRE release) · 2 February 2000 Own record
“Net sales for all of 1999 were $1.64 billion, a 169 percent increase over net sales of $610 million reported for all of 1998.”
- As 3rd-party sellers take over, Amazon's own market share loses 10 points Retail Dive · 14 June 2019
“"The compound annual growth rate for our first-party business in that time period is 25%," he also wrote of the 1999-2018 timeline.”
Reasoning
Amazon's own Q4 1999 release gives full-year 1999 net sales of $1.64 billion (E9), which matches the ~$1.6B starting figure. For 2018, Marketplace Pulse reports first-party sales of $117 billion (E8). The 2018 10-K's closest official line is online stores net sales of $122,987 million (E5), which is about 5% above $117B. The growth rate holds with either end figure: $1.64B to $117B over 19 years is about 25.2% a year, and $1.64B to $123B is about 25.5%. Because the official 2018 figure is slightly off from $117B and the 1999 figure is total net sales rather than a separately reported first-party line, the verdict is mostly true rather than true.
Cite this claim
Jeff Bezos, “Amazon's first-party business grew at a compound annual rate of 25% from 1999 to 2018, from $1.6 billion to $117 billion.” (said 11 April 2019). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_d4cbdbf93c57, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d4cbdbf93c57
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Jeff Bezos? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.