Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
84 79 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Insufficient record: 2 predictions resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
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Guidance
A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.
Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 84 (likely 79 to 88, high confidence), from 90 claims: 90 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Jeff Bezos's claims
35 claims
“But in that same time, third-party sales have grown from $0.1 billion to $160 billion”
Jeff Bezos, Amazon CEO, shareholder letter April 2019 2018 Letter to Shareholders (Amazon IR)
Third-party sales on Amazon grew from $0.1 billion to $160 billion over the period discussed, a compound annual growth rate of 52%.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Identify the period the letter covers (from 1999 to 2018). True: Amazon's figures show third-party sales of about $0.1 billion at the start of the period and about $160 billion at the end, and the compound annual growth rate implied by those figures and years is about 52% (within about 1 percentage point). Mostly true: both sales figures are right, but the stated growth rate is off by a few percentage points, or the period is described slightly differently. Mixed: one sales figure is right and the other is materially wrong, or the growth rate is far off. Mostly false: the figures mix incompatible measures (for example, gross merchandise volume against revenue), giving a misleading picture. False: Amazon's records show third-party sales figures far from those stated.
Evidence
- Amazon Gross Merchandise Volume $277 Billion in 2018 Marketplace Pulse · 12 April 2019
“In 1999 sellers on Amazon did $100 million in sales, in 2018 sellers on Amazon did $160 billion in sales.”
- [PDF] Statement of Nate Sutton Associate General Counsel, Competition U.S. House Committee on the Judiciary (testimony of Amazon.com, Inc. representative) · 16 July 2019 Own record
“Since 1999, the gross physical merchandise sales of third-party sellers in Amazon’s stores—primarily comprised of small and medium-sized businesses—have grown from $0.1 billion to $160 billion in 2018.”
- As 3rd-party sellers take over, Amazon's own market share loses 10 points Retail Dive · 14 June 2019
“[Amazon's Gross Merchandise Value is] overestimated historically as well,”
Reasoning
The two sales figures check out. An independent source [E2] reports that Amazon sellers did $100 million in sales in 1999 and $160 billion in 2018. Amazon's congressional testimony [E3] gives the same figures, from $0.1 billion in 1999 to $160 billion in 2018, and says they measure third-party sellers' gross merchandise sales. The growth rate does not check out as closely: going from $0.1 billion to $160 billion over the 19 years from 1999 to 2018 works out to about 47% a year, not 52%. That gap of a few percentage points matches the "mostly true" standard; [E4]'s point that Amazon's gross merchandise value has been overestimated historically does not show the figures are wrong.
Cite this claim
Jeff Bezos, “Third-party sales on Amazon grew from $0.1 billion to $160 billion over the period discussed, a compound annual growth rate of 52%.” (said April 2019). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_aefebad2571f, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_aefebad2571f
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Jeff Bezos? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.