ClaimsPeople

Gary Marcus

Gary Marcus is an author and AI entrepreneur and professor emeritus at NYU; he has written six books, including Rebooting AI and Taming Silicon Valley, founded Geometric Intelligence (bought by Uber), testified at the May 2023 US Senate AI hearing, and writes a newsletter with over 121,000 subscribers.

712 claims collected, 213 researched, 103 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    79 72 85

    High confidence, 64 factual claims resolved. From 18 documents, 2019 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 37 candidates found.

    Not scored: 32 unresolvable, 4 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    80 72 88

    Medium confidence, 38 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2019 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 37 candidates found.

    Not scored: 60 unresolvable. 13 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 1 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 79 (likely 74 to 84, high confidence), from 102 claims: 64 factual claims, 38 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Gary Marcus's claims

2 claims

2 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Delivered on time Promise 30 Mar 2023 Gary Marcus will speak at TED about short-term and long-term AI risk and what to do about it, in about two weeks from 2023-03-30. Promise · 30 Mar 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 17 Oct 2021 Gary Marcus will give a talk at the AGI21 conference on 2021-10-18. Promise · 17 Oct 2021 Their own work or organisation
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Gary Marcus

Open its page

Promise Their own work or organisation

“In a couple weeks, I will be speaking at TED, discussing A(G)I risk—both short term and long – and what to do about it.”

Gary Marcus, Substack author 30 March 2023 The Open Letter Controversy (Marcus on AI)

Gary Marcus will speak at TED about short-term and long-term AI risk and what to do about it, in about two weeks from 2023-03-30.

Delivered on time The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

The promise is that Gary Marcus would speak at TED about short-term and long-term AI risk and what to do about it, by the end of April 2023. True: TED's site, a TED video, or contemporaneous reports show Marcus gave a TED talk by 2023-04-30 that discusses AI risks and proposed responses, such as regulation or governance. Mostly true: he gave the TED talk on time about AI risk and remedies, but it clearly covered only short-term or only long-term risk. Mostly false: he spoke at TED only after April 2023, or appeared on time but not on AI risk. False: positive evidence shows he did not speak at TED in that period, for example the TED 2023 programme or reports showing his talk was cancelled.

Evidence

  1. The astounding new era of AI: Notes on Session 2 of TED2023 TED (blog.ted.com) · 18 April 2023
    “When and where: Tuesday, April 18, 2023, at the Vancouver Convention Centre in Vancouver, BC, Canada”
  2. The astounding new era of AI: Notes on Session 2 of TED2023 TED (blog.ted.com) · 18 April 2023
    “Speakers: Greg Brockman, Yejin Choi, Gary Marcus, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Alexandr Wang, Sal Khan”
  3. Gary Marcus: The urgent risks of runaway AI — and what to do about them TED Conferences · 12 May 2023
    “He advocates for an urgent reevaluation of whether we're building reliable systems (or misinformation machines), explores the failures of today's AI and calls for a global, nonprofit organization to regulate the tech for the sake of democracy and our collective future.”
  4. Scientists, governments, and corporations urgently need to work together to mitigate AI risk Gary Marcus (Substack) · 1 May 2023 Own record
    “And independently made each of these points a little less than two weeks ago, when I spoke at TED. (Rumor has it that my talk will be released in the next couple weeks.)”

Reasoning

TED's blog lists Gary Marcus as a speaker in Session 2 of TED2023, held on April 18, 2023 in Vancouver (E1, E2). That is about two and a half weeks after the claim and well before the April 30 deadline. TED's published talk page, titled "The urgent risks of runaway AI — and what to do about them", says he covered the failures of today's AI and misinformation and called for a global nonprofit body to regulate the technology (E3). Together these show a talk on AI risks, with proposed responses such as a global regulatory organisation, given before the deadline [E1][E2][E3].

Cite this claim

Gary Marcus, “Gary Marcus will speak at TED about short-term and long-term AI risk and what to do about it, in about two weeks from 2023-03-30.” (said 30 March 2023). Verdict: delivered on time. Reliability API, claim c_c85d5c96b6c0, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c85d5c96b6c0

Claims without a verdict

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