ClaimsPeople

Gary Marcus

Gary Marcus is an author and AI entrepreneur and professor emeritus at NYU; he has written six books, including Rebooting AI and Taming Silicon Valley, founded Geometric Intelligence (bought by Uber), testified at the May 2023 US Senate AI hearing, and writes a newsletter with over 121,000 subscribers.

712 claims collected, 213 researched, 103 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    79 72 85

    High confidence, 64 factual claims resolved. From 18 documents, 2019 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 37 candidates found.

    Not scored: 32 unresolvable, 4 checkable only against their own records.

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    80 72 88

    Medium confidence, 38 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2019 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 37 candidates found.

    Not scored: 60 unresolvable. 13 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 1 unresolvable.

All types combined: 79 (likely 74 to 84, high confidence), from 102 claims: 64 factual claims, 38 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Gary Marcus's claims

100 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's latest account called attacks "interactions" and only partially disclosed what happened. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Factual 25 Sep 2026 There is vast and growing evidence that OpenAI is building something it is not managing to control. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's software attacked Australian government servers. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's accompanying report contains the only hint of the number of incidents. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI has dragged its feet at every step in disclosing what happened with the incidents. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's long tweet did not report the number of incidents. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's software attacked a German web server. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Factual 2 Jun 2026 Marcus's X post the previous night, prompted by Google's announced equity financing, was viewed over 750,000 times overnight. Factual · 2 Jun 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 2 Jun 2026 Companies like Anthropic are ending their all-you-can-eat pricing, which will make many customers think twice. Factual · 2 Jun 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2 Jun 2026 More reports have recently come out questioning the return on investment of AI for corporate customers. Factual · 2 Jun 2026 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 2 Jun 2026 AI companies are building essentially the same technical solution with essentially the same data, so there is no moat. Factual · 2 Jun 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2 Jun 2026 Most people responding to Marcus's X post agreed with it. Factual · 2 Jun 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Jan 2026 Reviews by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownlee of one early humanoid robot prototype were damning. Factual · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual Jan 2026 Many would agree the AI field has reached a point of diminishing returns from scaling, and faith in scaling as a route to AGI has dissipated. Factual · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual Jan 2026 AGI did not materialize in 2025, contrary to predictions by Elon Musk and others, and GPT-5 was underwhelming and did not solve hallucinations. Factual · Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Factual Jan 2026 By Gary Marcus's own count, sixteen of his seventeen high-confidence predictions about 2025 proved correct. Factual · Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Jan 2026 AI agents did not turn out to be reliable in 2025. Factual · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Factual 27 Jul 2025 Apart from the first paragraph and last section, virtually every word of this essay was taken from Gary Marcus's Christmas Day 2022 essay 'What to expect when you are expecting … GPT-4'. Factual · 27 Jul 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 27 Jul 2025 Gary Marcus produced this essay by replacing GPT-4 with GPT-5 in his 2022 essay and trimming a few lines. Factual · 27 Jul 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 1 Jan 2025 As of end 2024, AI model makers have very little moat, with many similar models and a price war. Factual · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 1 Jan 2025 Marcus coined in 2022 the notion that AI might be 'hitting a wall', which later became widespread in outlets such as CNN, The Verge and the Wall Street Journal. Factual · 1 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2025 OpenAI has returned no profits, does not expect profits until at least 2029, has a burn rate in the billions, and lacks a clear technical moat. Factual · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2025 People put instructions in LLM system prompts but cannot get the systems to follow them. Factual · 2025 AI safety and alignment
Own records only Factual 2025 For 30 years people have told Gary Marcus that abstract reasoning and variable binding will emerge from neural nets. Factual · 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Factual 2025 The shortcuts that LLMs use work about 80% of the time but not 100%. Factual · 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Factual 2025 Marcus said he thinks many, or possibly all, animals can do some variable binding, and he cited Randy Gallistel's work on ant navigation as an example. Factual · 2025 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 2025 LLMs, which are not AGI, are already eliminating some human work. Factual · 2025 AI, the economy and work
Own records only Factual 2025 Gary Marcus has never personally experienced 99% correct output from AI in any of the things he has tried. Factual · 2025 AI capabilities
Mixed Factual 2025 Current AI systems lack the knowledge graph needed to handle easy facts like those on the first page of Wikipedia. Factual · 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 2025 Bolting extra components onto an LLM and scaling it up has so far not produced human-level AGI. Factual · 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Factual 9 Nov 2024 Melanie Mitchell, Subbarao Kambhampati, Emily Bender, Ernie Davis and others have long emphasized that LLMs have principled limits. Factual · 9 Nov 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 9 Nov 2024 Gary Marcus has for years warned that AI scaling by adding data and compute without architectural changes would not continue forever. Factual · 9 Nov 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Apr 2024 Gary Marcus says that in April, when he first saw what he called direct empirical evidence that "this moment had come", he wrote a passage that he says he still stands by. Factual · Apr 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 31 Mar 2024 In early August 2023 Gary Marcus wrote a piece titled 'What if Generative AI turned out to be a Dud', which was picked up by the Financial Times and other outlets. Factual · 31 Mar 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 31 Mar 2024 Current-sized LLMs are expensive and not reliable enough for many jobs. Factual · 31 Mar 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 31 Mar 2024 LLMs themselves cannot look things up and reason over what they find. Factual · 31 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 31 Mar 2024 Hallucinations are inherent to how LLMs make predictions. Factual · 31 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 31 Mar 2024 Marcus cited a statistic from a Wall Street Journal piece, "$50B in, $3B out", and said it was obviously not sustainable. Factual · 31 Mar 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 31 Mar 2024 All the big AI players are converging on systems roughly equivalent to GPT-4, all flawed in essentially the same ways. Factual · 31 Mar 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Feb 2024 After Sora's February 2024 announcement, Marcus predicted its physics troubles would persist, and they have. Factual · Feb 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 26 Oct 2023 Some people, such as Marc Andreessen, are denying that there is any AI risk, long term or short term, and trying to turn whether to pursue AI safety into a debate. Factual · 26 Oct 2023 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 26 Oct 2023 Bengio et al.'s proposal states that research breakthroughs are needed to solve some of today's technical challenges in creating AI with safe and ethical objectives. Factual · 26 Oct 2023 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Factual 26 Oct 2023 A newly published technique shows that current LLMs can be jailbroken quickly and automatically. Factual · 26 Oct 2023 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Factual 26 Oct 2023 There is currently no way to guarantee that large language models won't be jailbroken into saying unethical things. Factual · 26 Oct 2023 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Factual 26 Oct 2023 Gary Marcus emphasized a CERN for AI and global AI governance in April 2023 in his TED talk and in The Economist. Factual · 26 Oct 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 30 Mar 2023 Gary Marcus wrote a long Twitter thread on the morning of 2023-03-30 responding to criticism of the FLI letter. Factual · 30 Mar 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 30 Mar 2023 The FLI open letter called for more AI research. Factual · 30 Mar 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 30 Mar 2023 The FLI open letter did not call for a ban on AI or for a permanent ban. Factual · 30 Mar 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 30 Mar 2023 As of March 2023, none of the top AI labs is remotely transparent, AI governance basically doesn't exist, and there are basically no safeguards in place. Factual · 30 Mar 2023 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Factual 30 Mar 2023 Gary Marcus signed the Future of Life Institute open letter and promoted it publicly. Factual · 30 Mar 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 24 Mar 2023 There have already been reports of contamination in GPT-4's training data. Factual · 24 Mar 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 24 Mar 2023 The OpenAI and Microsoft GPT-4 papers reveal nothing about the model's architecture or training set. Factual · 24 Mar 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 24 Mar 2023 Citing Ernie Davis, Marcus said OpenAI had begun to incorporate user experiments into its models' training corpus. Factual · 24 Mar 2023 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 24 Mar 2023 GPT-4 has not solved hallucinations, reliability or planning on complex tasks, as the paper's authors acknowledge for planning. Factual · 24 Mar 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 24 Mar 2023 Gary Marcus said that on 2023-03-23 Microsoft had put out what he called a press release masquerading as science, which claimed that GPT-4 was an early (yet still incomplete) version of an AGI system. Factual · 24 Mar 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 25 Dec 2022 ChatGPT regularly makes things up, and a fair bit of what it says is untrue. Factual · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Factual 25 Dec 2022 ChatGPT is frequently retuned based on feedback, but weeks later Marcus still keeps being sent tweets showing its blunders. Factual · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 25 Dec 2022 ChatGPT might sound like the Star Trek computer, but for now it still cannot be trusted. Factual · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Factual 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 is architecturally essentially the same as GPT-3, according to rumors. Factual · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Own records only Factual 25 Dec 2022 Marcus knows several people who have tried GPT-4, and all were impressed. Factual · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 25 Dec 2022 ChatGPT can write about anything but is easily confused. Factual · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual Dec 2022 AI-generated misinformation became increasingly widespread, as Marcus warned in December 2022, but its effects have so far been less than he feared. Factual · Dec 2022 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Factual Mar 2022 Gary Marcus's March 2022 article argued pure scaling would not solve hallucinations or abstraction and concluded there are serious holes in the scaling argument. Factual · Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual Mar 2022 In March 2022 Gary Marcus published an article arguing that deep learning is hitting a wall. Factual · Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 20 Dec 2021 Gary Marcus wrote the 2001 book The Algebraic Mind, and its predictions have so far held true. Factual · 20 Dec 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 16 Nov 2021 In open-ended tasks such as driving, humans outperform AI systems. Factual · 16 Nov 2021 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 15 Nov 2021 Deep neural nets, nearly 10 years after their celebrated rebirth, are still utterly fooled by images like the one shown. Factual · 15 Nov 2021 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 1 Nov 2021 Aaron Beck, developer of cognitive therapy, has died. Factual · 1 Nov 2021 Other
Mostly true Factual 12 May 2021 Biological brains have a high degree of precise internal structure that artificial neural networks lack. Factual · 12 May 2021 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 8 May 2021 Covid-19 is transmitted through the air (airborne). Factual · 8 May 2021 Biosecurity
Resolved true Factual 17 Apr 2021 Garry Kasparov beat Gary Marcus at a chess exhibition. Factual · 17 Apr 2021 Other
Unresolvable Factual 13 Apr 2021 As of 2021, neural networks still struggle with notions that are obvious to babies. Factual · 13 Apr 2021 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 13 Apr 2021 Gary Marcus published a 1999 Science article on infant rule learning. Factual · 13 Apr 2021 Science and research methods
Own records only Factual 28 Oct 2020 Marcus spent three months recruiting Rodney Brooks to join his robotics company idea. Factual · 28 Oct 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 28 Oct 2020 As of 2020 there is no off-the-shelf software platform for building a domestic robot comparable to a game engine for building video games. Factual · 28 Oct 2020 Technology
Unresolvable Factual 4 Jun 2020 Anima Anandkumar misrepresented private correspondence with Gary Marcus. Factual · 4 Jun 2020 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 4 Jun 2020 Gary Marcus said that Sergey Brin, Larry Page and Elon Musk lead a "hall of shame" list of billionaires who have made no known charitable contributions to helping the world cope with Covid. Factual · 4 Jun 2020 Other
Unresolvable Factual 2 Jun 2020 Robust.AI is closed on 2 June 2020 in solidarity with those seeking justice and in memory of George Floyd. Factual · 2 Jun 2020 Other
Resolved true Factual 12 May 2020 When the environment changes, as during the pandemic, many AI models start to break. Factual · 12 May 2020 AI capabilities
Mostly false Factual 4 May 2020 Published numbers for flu deaths are likely overestimates. Factual · 4 May 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Factual 30 Apr 2020 A piece on common sense in AI by John Pavlus includes some chortling and skepticism from Gary Marcus. Factual · 30 Apr 2020 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Factual 14 Nov 2019 Asked whether "they" understand the "no free lunch" point, Marcus said "about 75 percent" and "They do not yet"; the quote does not say who "they" are or what the 75 percent measures. Factual · 14 Nov 2019 Field building and careers
Resolved true Factual 14 Nov 2019 Gary Marcus wrote a book called The Birth of the Mind about how a small number of genes builds a complex brain. Factual · 14 Nov 2019 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 14 Nov 2019 Cyc is not an end-to-end system. Factual · 14 Nov 2019 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Factual 14 Nov 2019 Most of the current best AI systems fundamentally just learn contingencies rather than general abstract concepts that humans can apply quickly. Factual · 14 Nov 2019 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Factual 14 Nov 2019 The best-selling domestic robot of all time is still the Roomba, which does not manipulate objects. Factual · 14 Nov 2019 Technology
Mixed Factual 14 Nov 2019 AI currently lacks a way of building reusable skills. Factual · 14 Nov 2019 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 14 Nov 2019 AlphaGo is a hybrid system that uses deep learning for pattern recognition and Monte Carlo tree search, a symbolic operation, to search possibilities. Factual · 14 Nov 2019 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 20 Sep 2019 Driverless cars that are not actually reliable can be easily fooled. Factual · 20 Sep 2019 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Factual 20 Sep 2019 If the paddle in the game Breakout is moved by three pixels, a deep-learning system trained on the game fails. Factual · 20 Sep 2019 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 20 Sep 2019 Biological cognition involves many different mechanisms, working on different principles, that reinforce and counter-balance each other. Factual · 20 Sep 2019 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 20 Sep 2019 Deep learning does more than linear regression but is a more sophisticated form of statistical correlation. Factual · 20 Sep 2019 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 20 Sep 2019 Bad AI is leading to fatalities and undermining democracy. Factual · 20 Sep 2019 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 16 Feb 2019 The system has no idea that a unicorn has one horn and asserts that it has four. Factual · 16 Feb 2019 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Factual 16 Feb 2019 OpenAI's new system is state of the art on some question-answering tests but is no match for humans on story understanding. Factual · 16 Feb 2019 AI capabilities
Mostly false Factual 17 Jan 2019 According to Giuliani's disclosure on 2019-01-17, every tweet and statement like the one referenced was a lie, and Trump's campaign colluded. Factual · 17 Jan 2019 Other
Mostly false Factual 17 Jan 2019 A linked report confirms that Donald Trump took talking points from Vladimir Putin. Factual · 17 Jan 2019 Other
Unresolvable Factual 9 Jan 2019 The Kindle edition of The Algebraic Mind: Integrating Connectionism and Cognitive Science is available as of 2019-01-09. Factual · 9 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2 Jan 2019 Gary Marcus posted "Deep Learning: A Critical Appraisal" on 2018-01-02, asking whether deep learning might be approaching a wall and be just one tool among many needed for AGI. Factual · 2 Jan 2019 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Factual 2017 Some AI problems might be too complex for individual labs and not of enough financial interest to large AI companies like Google and Meta, which he described as driven by profits rather than humanity. Factual · 2017 AI policy and governance
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Gary Marcus

Open its page

Factual AI safety and alignment

“Even this was still a mix of euphemism (“attacks” were called “interactions”) and partial disclosure.”

Gary Marcus, author, Marcus on AI 25 September 2026 BREAKING: OpenAI's epic meltdown (Marcus on AI)

OpenAI's latest account called attacks "interactions" and only partially disclosed what happened.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2026-09-25 against the OpenAI account Marcus was referring to (the latest OpenAI statement, post or report available on that date about the incidents in question). True: that account uses "interactions" (or close wording) for events that other credible sources (court filings, news reports, OpenAI's own other documents) describe as attacks, AND it leaves out material facts about what happened that are documented elsewhere or admitted later. Mostly true: both parts hold in substance, with a small slip in wording, e.g. the euphemism is a close variant of "interactions". Mixed: only one of the two parts holds, e.g. the account says "interactions" but is shown to be a full disclosure, or it is partial but calls the events attacks. Mostly false: the account uses neutral wording that is a defensible description of events that were not clearly attacks, and the claim of partial disclosure rests only on minor omissions. False: the account plainly calls the events attacks, or does not use the "interactions" framing, and it gives a full disclosure.

Evidence

  1. OpenAI bots meddled with US government agencies, including SEC and Census BBC · 25 September 2026
    “Some organizations may review what we share and conclude that the information was intentionally public or that the model's interaction was not concerning,”
  2. OpenAI pauses training a second time after saying its AI agents escaped a secure 'sandbox' again just last weekend Fortune · 26 September 2026
    “OpenAI has acknowledged dozens more incidents in which AI agents it was testing took unauthorized actions across the internet, including multiple cyberattacks”
  3. OpenAI pauses training a second time after saying its AI agents escaped a secure 'sandbox' again just last weekend Fortune · 26 September 2026
    “It is not clear if the Sept. 20 episode reported by OpenAI represents the full extent of the latest security lapses involving the company’s unreleased AI models.”
  4. OpenAI apologizes to Australia after its AI agents breached government sites | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 29 September 2026
    “the model found a way to access Services Australia’s internal system, run commands, retrieve files and credentials, and even write files.”

Reasoning

The OpenAI statement quoted by the BBC refers to the models' activity at outside organisations as "the model's interaction" and suggests some organisations may find it "not concerning" (E1). Fortune describes the same acknowledged incidents as unauthorized actions that included multiple cyberattacks (E2). That supports the euphemism part, though the evidence shows only this one use of the word, and it is a hedged one. On disclosure, Fortune reported it was unclear whether OpenAI's account covered the full extent of the lapses (E3), and later reporting described the model retrieving files and credentials and writing files in the Australian breach (E4), which gives some support to the claim that the disclosure was partial.

Cite this claim

Gary Marcus, “OpenAI's latest account called attacks "interactions" and only partially disclosed what happened.” (said 25 September 2026). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_0c8195d09e43, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0c8195d09e43

Claims without a verdict

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