ClaimsPeople

Gary Marcus

Gary Marcus is an author and AI entrepreneur and professor emeritus at NYU; he has written six books, including Rebooting AI and Taming Silicon Valley, founded Geometric Intelligence (bought by Uber), testified at the May 2023 US Senate AI hearing, and writes a newsletter with over 121,000 subscribers.

712 claims collected, 213 researched, 103 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    79 72 85

    High confidence, 64 factual claims resolved. From 18 documents, 2019 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 37 candidates found.

    Not scored: 32 unresolvable, 4 checkable only against their own records.

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    80 72 88

    Medium confidence, 38 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2019 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 37 candidates found.

    Not scored: 60 unresolvable. 13 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 1 unresolvable.

All types combined: 79 (likely 74 to 84, high confidence), from 102 claims: 64 factual claims, 38 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Gary Marcus's claims

64 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's latest account called attacks "interactions" and only partially disclosed what happened. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's software attacked Australian government servers. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Factual 25 Sep 2026 OpenAI's software attacked a German web server. Factual · 25 Sep 2026 AI safety and alignment
Mixed Factual 2 Jun 2026 Companies like Anthropic are ending their all-you-can-eat pricing, which will make many customers think twice. Factual · 2 Jun 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2 Jun 2026 More reports have recently come out questioning the return on investment of AI for corporate customers. Factual · 2 Jun 2026 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 2 Jun 2026 AI companies are building essentially the same technical solution with essentially the same data, so there is no moat. Factual · 2 Jun 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2026 Reviews by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownlee of one early humanoid robot prototype were damning. Factual · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual Jan 2026 Many would agree the AI field has reached a point of diminishing returns from scaling, and faith in scaling as a route to AGI has dissipated. Factual · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual Jan 2026 AGI did not materialize in 2025, contrary to predictions by Elon Musk and others, and GPT-5 was underwhelming and did not solve hallucinations. Factual · Jan 2026 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Factual Jan 2026 AI agents did not turn out to be reliable in 2025. Factual · Jan 2026 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 1 Jan 2025 As of end 2024, AI model makers have very little moat, with many similar models and a price war. Factual · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 1 Jan 2025 OpenAI has returned no profits, does not expect profits until at least 2029, has a burn rate in the billions, and lacks a clear technical moat. Factual · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2025 People put instructions in LLM system prompts but cannot get the systems to follow them. Factual · 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Factual 2025 LLMs, which are not AGI, are already eliminating some human work. Factual · 2025 AI, the economy and work
Mixed Factual 2025 Current AI systems lack the knowledge graph needed to handle easy facts like those on the first page of Wikipedia. Factual · 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 2025 Bolting extra components onto an LLM and scaling it up has so far not produced human-level AGI. Factual · 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 9 Nov 2024 Gary Marcus has for years warned that AI scaling by adding data and compute without architectural changes would not continue forever. Factual · 9 Nov 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 31 Mar 2024 In early August 2023 Gary Marcus wrote a piece titled 'What if Generative AI turned out to be a Dud', which was picked up by the Financial Times and other outlets. Factual · 31 Mar 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 31 Mar 2024 Current-sized LLMs are expensive and not reliable enough for many jobs. Factual · 31 Mar 2024 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 31 Mar 2024 Hallucinations are inherent to how LLMs make predictions. Factual · 31 Mar 2024 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 31 Mar 2024 Marcus cited a statistic from a Wall Street Journal piece, "$50B in, $3B out", and said it was obviously not sustainable. Factual · 31 Mar 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Feb 2024 After Sora's February 2024 announcement, Marcus predicted its physics troubles would persist, and they have. Factual · Feb 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 26 Oct 2023 Some people, such as Marc Andreessen, are denying that there is any AI risk, long term or short term, and trying to turn whether to pursue AI safety into a debate. Factual · 26 Oct 2023 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 26 Oct 2023 Bengio et al.'s proposal states that research breakthroughs are needed to solve some of today's technical challenges in creating AI with safe and ethical objectives. Factual · 26 Oct 2023 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Factual 26 Oct 2023 A newly published technique shows that current LLMs can be jailbroken quickly and automatically. Factual · 26 Oct 2023 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Factual 26 Oct 2023 There is currently no way to guarantee that large language models won't be jailbroken into saying unethical things. Factual · 26 Oct 2023 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Factual 26 Oct 2023 Gary Marcus emphasized a CERN for AI and global AI governance in April 2023 in his TED talk and in The Economist. Factual · 26 Oct 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 30 Mar 2023 The FLI open letter called for more AI research. Factual · 30 Mar 2023 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 30 Mar 2023 The FLI open letter did not call for a ban on AI or for a permanent ban. Factual · 30 Mar 2023 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 30 Mar 2023 As of March 2023, none of the top AI labs is remotely transparent, AI governance basically doesn't exist, and there are basically no safeguards in place. Factual · 30 Mar 2023 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 24 Mar 2023 There have already been reports of contamination in GPT-4's training data. Factual · 24 Mar 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 24 Mar 2023 The OpenAI and Microsoft GPT-4 papers reveal nothing about the model's architecture or training set. Factual · 24 Mar 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 24 Mar 2023 Citing Ernie Davis, Marcus said OpenAI had begun to incorporate user experiments into its models' training corpus. Factual · 24 Mar 2023 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 24 Mar 2023 GPT-4 has not solved hallucinations, reliability or planning on complex tasks, as the paper's authors acknowledge for planning. Factual · 24 Mar 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 24 Mar 2023 Gary Marcus said that on 2023-03-23 Microsoft had put out what he called a press release masquerading as science, which claimed that GPT-4 was an early (yet still incomplete) version of an AGI system. Factual · 24 Mar 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 25 Dec 2022 ChatGPT regularly makes things up, and a fair bit of what it says is untrue. Factual · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 25 Dec 2022 ChatGPT might sound like the Star Trek computer, but for now it still cannot be trusted. Factual · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 25 Dec 2022 ChatGPT can write about anything but is easily confused. Factual · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual Dec 2022 AI-generated misinformation became increasingly widespread, as Marcus warned in December 2022, but its effects have so far been less than he feared. Factual · Dec 2022 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Factual Mar 2022 Gary Marcus's March 2022 article argued pure scaling would not solve hallucinations or abstraction and concluded there are serious holes in the scaling argument. Factual · Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual Mar 2022 In March 2022 Gary Marcus published an article arguing that deep learning is hitting a wall. Factual · Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 16 Nov 2021 In open-ended tasks such as driving, humans outperform AI systems. Factual · 16 Nov 2021 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 15 Nov 2021 Deep neural nets, nearly 10 years after their celebrated rebirth, are still utterly fooled by images like the one shown. Factual · 15 Nov 2021 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 1 Nov 2021 Aaron Beck, developer of cognitive therapy, has died. Factual · 1 Nov 2021 Other
Mostly true Factual 12 May 2021 Biological brains have a high degree of precise internal structure that artificial neural networks lack. Factual · 12 May 2021 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 8 May 2021 Covid-19 is transmitted through the air (airborne). Factual · 8 May 2021 Biosecurity
Resolved true Factual 17 Apr 2021 Garry Kasparov beat Gary Marcus at a chess exhibition. Factual · 17 Apr 2021 Other
Resolved true Factual 13 Apr 2021 Gary Marcus published a 1999 Science article on infant rule learning. Factual · 13 Apr 2021 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 28 Oct 2020 As of 2020 there is no off-the-shelf software platform for building a domestic robot comparable to a game engine for building video games. Factual · 28 Oct 2020 Technology
Resolved true Factual 12 May 2020 When the environment changes, as during the pandemic, many AI models start to break. Factual · 12 May 2020 AI capabilities
Mostly false Factual 4 May 2020 Published numbers for flu deaths are likely overestimates. Factual · 4 May 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Factual 30 Apr 2020 A piece on common sense in AI by John Pavlus includes some chortling and skepticism from Gary Marcus. Factual · 30 Apr 2020 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 14 Nov 2019 Gary Marcus wrote a book called The Birth of the Mind about how a small number of genes builds a complex brain. Factual · 14 Nov 2019 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 14 Nov 2019 Cyc is not an end-to-end system. Factual · 14 Nov 2019 AI capabilities
Mixed Factual 14 Nov 2019 AI currently lacks a way of building reusable skills. Factual · 14 Nov 2019 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 14 Nov 2019 AlphaGo is a hybrid system that uses deep learning for pattern recognition and Monte Carlo tree search, a symbolic operation, to search possibilities. Factual · 14 Nov 2019 AI capabilities
Resolved true Factual 20 Sep 2019 Driverless cars that are not actually reliable can be easily fooled. Factual · 20 Sep 2019 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 20 Sep 2019 Biological cognition involves many different mechanisms, working on different principles, that reinforce and counter-balance each other. Factual · 20 Sep 2019 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 20 Sep 2019 Deep learning does more than linear regression but is a more sophisticated form of statistical correlation. Factual · 20 Sep 2019 AI capabilities
Mostly true Factual 20 Sep 2019 Bad AI is leading to fatalities and undermining democracy. Factual · 20 Sep 2019 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 16 Feb 2019 The system has no idea that a unicorn has one horn and asserts that it has four. Factual · 16 Feb 2019 AI capabilities
Mostly false Factual 17 Jan 2019 According to Giuliani's disclosure on 2019-01-17, every tweet and statement like the one referenced was a lie, and Trump's campaign colluded. Factual · 17 Jan 2019 Other
Mostly false Factual 17 Jan 2019 A linked report confirms that Donald Trump took talking points from Vladimir Putin. Factual · 17 Jan 2019 Other
Resolved true Factual 2 Jan 2019 Gary Marcus posted "Deep Learning: A Critical Appraisal" on 2018-01-02, asking whether deep learning might be approaching a wall and be just one tool among many needed for AGI. Factual · 2 Jan 2019 AI capabilities
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Gary Marcus

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Factual AI safety and alignment

“We have no way of guaranteeing that large language models won’t be jailbroken into saying unethical things.”

Gary Marcus, author of Marcus on AI 26 October 2023 A CERN for AI and the Global Governance of AI (Marcus on AI)

There is currently no way to guarantee that large language models won't be jailbroken into saying unethical things.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2023-10-26. True: the evidence from that time shows that no technique existed that provably or reliably stopped LLMs from being jailbroken into producing harmful or unethical output, and that jailbreaks of leading models were being shown routinely (e.g. the universal adversarial suffixes reported in 2023). Mostly true: the core claim holds, with only minor caveats such as narrow formal guarantees for small or restricted settings. Mixed: some methods offered strong but not complete protection, so whether a 'guarantee' existed was genuinely disputed. Mostly false: robust defences were broadly accepted as effective, and the claim overstates the remaining gaps. False: a method that guarantees protection against jailbreaks was established and accepted by then.

Evidence

  1. Researchers Discover New Vulnerability in Large Language Models Carnegie Mellon University (News) · 28 July 2023
    ““Right now, we simply don’t have a convincing way to stop this from happening, so the next step is to figure out how to fix these models,” Fredrikson said.”
  2. Researchers Discover New Vulnerability in Large Language Models Carnegie Mellon University (News) · 28 July 2023
    “By training the attack suffix on multiple prompts and models, the researchers have also induced objectionable content in public interfaces like Google Bard and Claud and in open-source LLMs such as Llama 2 Chat, Pythia, Falcon and others.”
  3. Jailbroken: How Does LLM Safety Training Fail? arXiv (authors from academic institutions) · 13 April 2023
    “We find that vulnerabilities persist despite the extensive red-teaming and safety-training efforts behind these models. Notably, new attacks utilizing our failure modes succeed on every prompt in a collection of unsafe requests from the models’ red-teaming evaluation sets”
  4. AI Safety Newsletter #17 Center for AI Safety · 1 August 2023
    “and the companies have taken preliminary measures to mitigate the attacks. But no robust defenses are currently known, necessitating two key responses to the threat of adversarial attacks.”

Reasoning

In July 2023, CMU researchers reported universal adversarial suffixes that drew objectionable content from Bard, Claude, Llama 2 Chat and other models. One of them said there was no convincing way to stop such attacks (E1, E2). An academic paper found that jailbreaks still worked despite extensive red-teaming and safety training (E3). The Center for AI Safety wrote in August 2023 that no robust defences were known (E4). Together, these independent sources show that as of October 2023 no method could guarantee protection against jailbreaks, and that leading models were being jailbroken routinely.

Cite this claim

Gary Marcus, “There is currently no way to guarantee that large language models won't be jailbroken into saying unethical things.” (said 26 October 2023). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_eeee4d06cd37, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_eeee4d06cd37

Claims without a verdict

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