| Mostly true |
Factual |
25 Sep 2026 |
OpenAI's latest account called attacks "interactions" and only partially disclosed what happened.
Factual · 25 Sep 2026 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
25 Sep 2026 |
OpenAI's software attacked Australian government servers.
Factual · 25 Sep 2026 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
25 Sep 2026 |
OpenAI's software attacked a German web server.
Factual · 25 Sep 2026 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mixed |
Factual |
2 Jun 2026 |
Companies like Anthropic are ending their all-you-can-eat pricing, which will make many customers think twice.
Factual · 2 Jun 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2 Jun 2026 |
More reports have recently come out questioning the return on investment of AI for corporate customers.
Factual · 2 Jun 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
2 Jun 2026 |
AI companies are building essentially the same technical solution with essentially the same data, so there is no moat.
Factual · 2 Jun 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Jan 2026 |
Reviews by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownlee of one early humanoid robot prototype were damning.
Factual · Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Jan 2026 |
Many would agree the AI field has reached a point of diminishing returns from scaling, and faith in scaling as a route to AGI has dissipated.
Factual · Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Jan 2026 |
AGI did not materialize in 2025, contrary to predictions by Elon Musk and others, and GPT-5 was underwhelming and did not solve hallucinations.
Factual · Jan 2026 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Jan 2026 |
AI agents did not turn out to be reliable in 2025.
Factual · Jan 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2025 |
As of end 2024, AI model makers have very little moat, with many similar models and a price war.
Factual · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
1 Jan 2025 |
OpenAI has returned no profits, does not expect profits until at least 2029, has a burn rate in the billions, and lacks a clear technical moat.
Factual · 1 Jan 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2025 |
People put instructions in LLM system prompts but cannot get the systems to follow them.
Factual · 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
2025 |
LLMs, which are not AGI, are already eliminating some human work.
Factual · 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Mixed |
Factual |
2025 |
Current AI systems lack the knowledge graph needed to handle easy facts like those on the first page of Wikipedia.
Factual · 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
2025 |
Bolting extra components onto an LLM and scaling it up has so far not produced human-level AGI.
Factual · 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
9 Nov 2024 |
Gary Marcus has for years warned that AI scaling by adding data and compute without architectural changes would not continue forever.
Factual · 9 Nov 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
31 Mar 2024 |
In early August 2023 Gary Marcus wrote a piece titled 'What if Generative AI turned out to be a Dud', which was picked up by the Financial Times and other outlets.
Factual · 31 Mar 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
31 Mar 2024 |
Current-sized LLMs are expensive and not reliable enough for many jobs.
Factual · 31 Mar 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
31 Mar 2024 |
Hallucinations are inherent to how LLMs make predictions.
Factual · 31 Mar 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
31 Mar 2024 |
Marcus cited a statistic from a Wall Street Journal piece, "$50B in, $3B out", and said it was obviously not sustainable.
Factual · 31 Mar 2024 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
Feb 2024 |
After Sora's February 2024 announcement, Marcus predicted its physics troubles would persist, and they have.
Factual · Feb 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Oct 2023 |
Some people, such as Marc Andreessen, are denying that there is any AI risk, long term or short term, and trying to turn whether to pursue AI safety into a debate.
Factual · 26 Oct 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
26 Oct 2023 |
Bengio et al.'s proposal states that research breakthroughs are needed to solve some of today's technical challenges in creating AI with safe and ethical objectives.
Factual · 26 Oct 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Oct 2023 |
A newly published technique shows that current LLMs can be jailbroken quickly and automatically.
Factual · 26 Oct 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
26 Oct 2023 |
There is currently no way to guarantee that large language models won't be jailbroken into saying unethical things.
Factual · 26 Oct 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
26 Oct 2023 |
Gary Marcus emphasized a CERN for AI and global AI governance in April 2023 in his TED talk and in The Economist.
Factual · 26 Oct 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
30 Mar 2023 |
The FLI open letter called for more AI research.
Factual · 30 Mar 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
30 Mar 2023 |
The FLI open letter did not call for a ban on AI or for a permanent ban.
Factual · 30 Mar 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
30 Mar 2023 |
As of March 2023, none of the top AI labs is remotely transparent, AI governance basically doesn't exist, and there are basically no safeguards in place.
Factual · 30 Mar 2023 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
24 Mar 2023 |
There have already been reports of contamination in GPT-4's training data.
Factual · 24 Mar 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
24 Mar 2023 |
The OpenAI and Microsoft GPT-4 papers reveal nothing about the model's architecture or training set.
Factual · 24 Mar 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
24 Mar 2023 |
Citing Ernie Davis, Marcus said OpenAI had begun to incorporate user experiments into its models' training corpus.
Factual · 24 Mar 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
24 Mar 2023 |
GPT-4 has not solved hallucinations, reliability or planning on complex tasks, as the paper's authors acknowledge for planning.
Factual · 24 Mar 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
24 Mar 2023 |
Gary Marcus said that on 2023-03-23 Microsoft had put out what he called a press release masquerading as science, which claimed that GPT-4 was an early (yet still incomplete) version of an AGI system.
Factual · 24 Mar 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
25 Dec 2022 |
ChatGPT regularly makes things up, and a fair bit of what it says is untrue.
Factual · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
25 Dec 2022 |
ChatGPT might sound like the Star Trek computer, but for now it still cannot be trusted.
Factual · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
25 Dec 2022 |
ChatGPT can write about anything but is easily confused.
Factual · 25 Dec 2022 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Dec 2022 |
AI-generated misinformation became increasingly widespread, as Marcus warned in December 2022, but its effects have so far been less than he feared.
Factual · Dec 2022 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
Mar 2022 |
Gary Marcus's March 2022 article argued pure scaling would not solve hallucinations or abstraction and concluded there are serious holes in the scaling argument.
Factual · Mar 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
Mar 2022 |
In March 2022 Gary Marcus published an article arguing that deep learning is hitting a wall.
Factual · Mar 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
16 Nov 2021 |
In open-ended tasks such as driving, humans outperform AI systems.
Factual · 16 Nov 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
15 Nov 2021 |
Deep neural nets, nearly 10 years after their celebrated rebirth, are still utterly fooled by images like the one shown.
Factual · 15 Nov 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
1 Nov 2021 |
Aaron Beck, developer of cognitive therapy, has died.
Factual · 1 Nov 2021 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 May 2021 |
Biological brains have a high degree of precise internal structure that artificial neural networks lack.
Factual · 12 May 2021 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
8 May 2021 |
Covid-19 is transmitted through the air (airborne).
Factual · 8 May 2021 |
Biosecurity |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
17 Apr 2021 |
Garry Kasparov beat Gary Marcus at a chess exhibition.
Factual · 17 Apr 2021 |
Other |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
13 Apr 2021 |
Gary Marcus published a 1999 Science article on infant rule learning.
Factual · 13 Apr 2021 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
28 Oct 2020 |
As of 2020 there is no off-the-shelf software platform for building a domestic robot comparable to a game engine for building video games.
Factual · 28 Oct 2020 |
Technology |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
12 May 2020 |
When the environment changes, as during the pandemic, many AI models start to break.
Factual · 12 May 2020 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
4 May 2020 |
Published numbers for flu deaths are likely overestimates.
Factual · 4 May 2020 |
Biosecurity |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
30 Apr 2020 |
A piece on common sense in AI by John Pavlus includes some chortling and skepticism from Gary Marcus.
Factual · 30 Apr 2020 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
14 Nov 2019 |
Gary Marcus wrote a book called The Birth of the Mind about how a small number of genes builds a complex brain.
Factual · 14 Nov 2019 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
14 Nov 2019 |
Cyc is not an end-to-end system.
Factual · 14 Nov 2019 |
AI capabilities |
| Mixed |
Factual |
14 Nov 2019 |
AI currently lacks a way of building reusable skills.
Factual · 14 Nov 2019 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
14 Nov 2019 |
AlphaGo is a hybrid system that uses deep learning for pattern recognition and Monte Carlo tree search, a symbolic operation, to search possibilities.
Factual · 14 Nov 2019 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
20 Sep 2019 |
Driverless cars that are not actually reliable can be easily fooled.
Factual · 20 Sep 2019 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
20 Sep 2019 |
Biological cognition involves many different mechanisms, working on different principles, that reinforce and counter-balance each other.
Factual · 20 Sep 2019 |
Science and research methods |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
20 Sep 2019 |
Deep learning does more than linear regression but is a more sophisticated form of statistical correlation.
Factual · 20 Sep 2019 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
20 Sep 2019 |
Bad AI is leading to fatalities and undermining democracy.
Factual · 20 Sep 2019 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
16 Feb 2019 |
The system has no idea that a unicorn has one horn and asserts that it has four.
Factual · 16 Feb 2019 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
17 Jan 2019 |
According to Giuliani's disclosure on 2019-01-17, every tweet and statement like the one referenced was a lie, and Trump's campaign colluded.
Factual · 17 Jan 2019 |
Other |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
17 Jan 2019 |
A linked report confirms that Donald Trump took talking points from Vladimir Putin.
Factual · 17 Jan 2019 |
Other |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
2 Jan 2019 |
Gary Marcus posted "Deep Learning: A Critical Appraisal" on 2018-01-02, asking whether deep learning might be approaching a wall and be just one tool among many needed for AGI.
Factual · 2 Jan 2019 |
AI capabilities |