Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
79 72 85 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
80 72 88 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 79 (likely 74 to 84, high confidence), from 102 claims: 64 factual claims, 38 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Gary Marcus's claims
“Power consumption will rise and continue to be a major problem, but few generative AI companies will be transparent about their usage.”
Gary Marcus, Substack author 1 January 2025 25 AI Predictions for 2025, from Marcus on AI (Marcus on AI)
AI power consumption will rise in 2025 and remain a major problem, while few generative AI companies will be transparent about their usage.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
The claim has three parts: (1) AI power consumption rose in 2025; (2) it remained a major problem, meaning it was widely reported as a significant concern for energy grids, climate or costs; (3) few generative-AI companies were transparent about their power use, meaning most leading generative-AI companies did not publish specific energy figures for their AI models or services. True: all three parts held during 2025. Mostly true: all three broadly held, with a minor exception, for example one or two major companies publishing partial per-query energy figures. Mixed: two parts held and one did not, or a part held only partly. Mostly false: only one part held. False: none held, for example AI power use was flat or falling, was not treated as a major concern, and most leading generative-AI companies disclosed their usage.
Evidence
- Data centre electricity use surged in 2025, even with tightening bottlenecks driving a scramble for solutions - News - IEA International Energy Agency (IEA) · 11 September 2026
“Electricity demand from data centres soared by 17% in 2025, and that of AI-focused data centres climbed even faster – well outpacing growth in global electricity demand of 3%.”
- Data centre electricity use surged in 2025, even with tightening bottlenecks driving a scramble for solutions - News - IEA International Energy Agency (IEA) · 11 September 2026
“Over the past year, social concerns around AI have also grown, with data centres serving as a highly visible flashpoint for concerns around energy prices and the environment.”
- Transparency in AI is on the decline Stanford University (Stanford HAI story, 2025 Foundation Model Transparency Index) · 30 October 2026
“10 companies disclose none of the key information related to environmental impact: AI21 Labs, Alibaba, Amazon, Anthropic, DeepSeek, Google, Midjourney, Mistral, OpenAI, and xAI. This includes no information about energy usage, carbon emissions, or water use.”
- AI giants stay quiet on climate as California prepares to force disclosure Los Angeles Times (Bloomberg story) · 12 August 2026
“The companies haven't disclosed their greenhouse gas emissions, made net-zero pledges or published sustainability reports.”
Reasoning
The IEA reports that data-centre electricity demand rose 17% in 2025, and that demand from AI-focused data centres grew even faster (E1). The IEA also describes data centres over the past year, in a September 2026 release, as a highly visible flashpoint for concerns about energy prices and the environment (E2). Stanford's 2025 Foundation Model Transparency Index finds that ten leading AI companies, including OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Amazon and xAI, disclose no energy-usage information (E3). Bloomberg separately reports that major AI firms had not disclosed their emissions (E4). All three parts of the claim are supported by independent sources.
Cite this claim
Gary Marcus, “AI power consumption will rise in 2025 and remain a major problem, while few generative AI companies will be transparent about their usage.” (said 1 January 2025). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_ca58f05fd92f, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ca58f05fd92f
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Gary Marcus? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.