Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
79 72 85 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
80 72 88 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 79 (likely 74 to 84, high confidence), from 102 claims: 64 factual claims, 38 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Gary Marcus's claims
3 claims
| Verdict | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly false | Factual | 4 May 2020 | Published numbers for flu deaths are likely overestimates. Factual · 4 May 2020 | Biosecurity |
| Mostly false | Factual | 17 Jan 2019 | According to Giuliani's disclosure on 2019-01-17, every tweet and statement like the one referenced was a lie, and Trump's campaign colluded. Factual · 17 Jan 2019 | Other |
| Mostly false | Factual | 17 Jan 2019 | A linked report confirms that Donald Trump took talking points from Vladimir Putin. Factual · 17 Jan 2019 | Other |
“Per Giuliani’s disclosure tonight, every tweet and statement like this was a lie.”
Gary Marcus, writing on X 17 January 2019 Post by @GaryMarcus on X, 2019-01-17 (X)
According to Giuliani's disclosure on 2019-01-17, every tweet and statement like the one referenced was a lie, and Trump's campaign colluded.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
What would count as true or false
Judge this as of 17 January 2019, on what Giuliani actually said that night: his public remarks on 16–17 January 2019, including his CNN interview. The proposition is that his disclosure showed the 'no collusion' statements were lies and that the Trump campaign colluded. Later findings such as the Mueller report do not change what Giuliani said, but they can show context. TRUE: Giuliani acknowledged that the Trump campaign colluded or coordinated with Russia, directly contradicting the earlier 'no collusion' statements. MOSTLY TRUE: he clearly admitted that campaign members colluded or coordinated, though in hedged wording. MIXED: he admitted substantive campaign contacts or coordination short of collusion, such as sharing campaign data, so the statements were contradicted only in part. MOSTLY FALSE: he only narrowed his defense, saying he had never claimed that no one in the campaign colluded and only that Trump personally did not, without admitting any collusion. On that reading, the claim stretches a real retreat into an admission. FALSE: he made no statement bearing on campaign collusion, or he reaffirmed that there was none.
Evidence
- Trump lawyer Giuliani says does not know if campaign colluded with Russia Reuters (via The Star) · 17 January 2019
“"I never said there was no collusion between the campaign, or between people in the campaign. I have no idea," Giuliani told the cable news network.”
- Trump lawyer Giuliani says does not know if campaign colluded with Russia Reuters (via The Star) · 17 January 2019
“"I know the president wasn’t involved in collusion. How would I know about anybody else? I wouldn’t know," he said.”
- Giuliani: Trump Campaign May Have Colluded With Russia, but Not Trump VOA News · 17 January 2019
“On Thursday, Giuliani sought to clarify his remarks, saying, "I represent only President Trump not the Trump campaign. There was no collusion by President Trump in any way, shape or form. Likewise, I have no knowledge of any collusion by any of the thousands of people who worked on the campaign."”
Reasoning
Reuters reports that in his CNN interview Giuliani said "I never said there was no collusion between the campaign, or between people in the campaign. I have no idea" (E1). He then confirmed that he knew only that the president was not involved (E2). VOA reports that in his Thursday clarification Giuliani said Trump did not collude and that he had no knowledge of collusion by campaign staff (E4). This is a narrower defense, not an admission that the campaign colluded, so the claim treats a retreat as an admission.
Cite this claim
Gary Marcus, “According to Giuliani's disclosure on 2019-01-17, every tweet and statement like the one referenced was a lie, and Trump's campaign colluded.” (said 17 January 2019). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_0ef9ee7a3968, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0ef9ee7a3968
Claims without a verdict
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