Eliezer Yudkowsky

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

• Factual claims

  Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

  76 70 82

  High confidence, 71 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2007 to 2026; 18 documents sampled from 23 candidates found.

  Not scored: 50 unresolvable, 8 checkable only against their own records.

  See the factual claims

• Predictions

  Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

  60 42 78

  Low confidence, 8 predictions resolved. From 4 documents, 2008 to 2024; 18 documents sampled from 23 candidates found.

  Not scored: 97 unresolvable. 1 more fall due later.

  Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  See the predictions

All types combined: 74 (likely 68 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 71 factual claims, 8 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.