| Mostly false |
Prediction |
23 Sep 2026 |
Amodei said that "we" believe AI for biology is on an exponential trend similar to the one he described for AI in mathematics.
Prediction · 23 Sep 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
23 Sep 2026 |
Anthropic demonstrated that humans can work with AI to perform experiments and validate key results within a few weeks.
Factual · 23 Sep 2026 |
Science and research methods |
| Mixed |
Factual |
23 Sep 2026 |
AI performance in new intellectual domains has repeatedly gone from weak to superhuman within a few years.
Factual · 23 Sep 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Promise |
12 Sep 2026 |
Anthropic commits unilaterally to the first step of the plan: giving third-party evaluators permanent, employee-level access to its systems.
Promise · 12 Sep 2026 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
12 Sep 2026 |
Dario Amodei has published a new essay, "We Must Pace the Frontier", arguing the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan.
Factual · 12 Sep 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
16 Aug 2026 |
The public has a negative view of AI.
Factual · 16 Aug 2026 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed |
Factual |
15 Aug 2026 |
The "Pacing the Frontier" letter, in Anthropic's preferred implementation, envisions modulating the pace of the best models without constraining those catching up.
Factual · 15 Aug 2026 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mixed |
Factual |
15 Aug 2026 |
Around February 2026, most of the AI industry was pushing for federal preemption of all state AI regulation, with no apparent federal approach.
Factual · 15 Aug 2026 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
10 Jun 2026 |
On 2026-06-10 Dario Amodei published a new essay titled Policy on the AI Exponential.
Factual · 10 Jun 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
28 Feb 2026 |
Anthropic has been the most forward-leaning of all AI companies in working with the U.S. government and military.
Factual · 28 Feb 2026 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
28 Feb 2026 |
As of the interview, Anthropic had received only a tweet and no formal supply chain designation or government action.
Factual · 28 Feb 2026 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
28 Feb 2026 |
The amount of computation going into AI models doubles every four months.
Factual · 28 Feb 2026 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
28 Feb 2026 |
Anthropic will be fine, and the impact of the supply chain risk designation on it will be fairly small.
Prediction · 28 Feb 2026 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true |
Promise |
28 Feb 2026 |
If Anthropic receives formal government action on the designation, it will review it and challenge it in court.
Promise · 28 Feb 2026 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
28 Feb 2026 |
It is not illegal for the government to buy data collected by private firms and analyze it in mass with AI.
Factual · 28 Feb 2026 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
28 Feb 2026 |
Anthropic was threatened with a supply chain designation and Defense Production Act action by the government, and publicly disagreed in response.
Factual · 28 Feb 2026 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
28 Feb 2026 |
The whole timeline of the dispute was driven by the Department of War, not Anthropic.
Factual · 28 Feb 2026 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
28 Feb 2026 |
To Anthropic's knowledge, the supply chain risk designation had never previously been applied to an American company, only to adversary-linked firms such as Kaspersky Labs.
Factual · 28 Feb 2026 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
5 Jun 2025 |
Distillation of frontier models lets lagging companies narrow the gap at a fraction of the cost of developing their own AI independently.
Factual · 5 Jun 2025 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Promise |
5 Jun 2025 |
Anthropic is unilaterally committing now to the step of embedding third-party evaluators, which it describes as the key step for verifying any pacing commitments, comparable to regulatory supervisors embedded alongside employees in banking.
Promise · 5 Jun 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
5 Jun 2025 |
Dario Amodei has worked on AI for the last twelve years.
Factual · 5 Jun 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
10 Mar 2025 |
Anthropic was the first AI company to have a responsible scaling policy.
Factual · 10 Mar 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
10 Mar 2025 |
Within a few months of Anthropic releasing its responsible scaling policy, the other AI companies all adopted similar policies.
Factual · 10 Mar 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
10 Mar 2025 |
US export controls may have the effect of stimulating China's chip development.
Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved false |
Prediction |
10 Mar 2025 |
Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.
Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
10 Mar 2025 |
Amodei said he thinks delaying Claude's release had real commercial consequences for Anthropic.
Factual · 10 Mar 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false |
Prediction |
10 Mar 2025 |
Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.
Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mixed |
Factual |
10 Mar 2025 |
Amodei's group measured AI scaling trends when models cost $1,000 or $10,000 to train.
Factual · 10 Mar 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
10 Mar 2025 |
Anthropic's models may reach AI Safety Level 3 in 2025.
Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly false |
Factual |
10 Mar 2025 |
Dario Amodei thought one or two years before March 2025 that data limits were a very plausible blocker to AI progress.
Factual · 10 Mar 2025 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
10 Mar 2025 |
Dario Amodei has supported export controls on chips for several years, before DeepSeek's model came out.
Factual · 10 Mar 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mixed |
Factual |
28 Feb 2025 |
Many other companies' reasoning models on the market are trained primarily on math and competition coding.
Factual · 28 Feb 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
28 Feb 2025 |
In the short run (about 6 to 12 months), AI will augment and increase coders' productivity rather than replace them.
Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Delivered on time |
Promise |
28 Feb 2025 |
Anthropic will launch web search for Claude very soon.
Promise · 28 Feb 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
28 Feb 2025 |
Anthropic ran an experiment training a model to be helpful, honest, harmless and friendly.
Factual · 28 Feb 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
28 Feb 2025 |
Anthropic assessed that Claude 3.7 Sonnet is not yet at a stage giving a real and meaningful end-to-end increase in dangerous threat capability.
Factual · 28 Feb 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
28 Feb 2025 |
Amodei said he thinks AI coding is moving the fastest of all the areas of AI.
Factual · 28 Feb 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
28 Feb 2025 |
Amodei's earlier 10 to 25% figure referred to the chance of civilization getting substantially derailed.
Factual · 28 Feb 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
28 Feb 2025 |
The model sometimes gives a very short response because, when it knows it gains nothing from thinking further, it does not think for longer; a bound on how long it thinks is still described as valuable.
Factual · 28 Feb 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
28 Feb 2025 |
Anthropic trained Claude 3.7 to focus more on real-world tasks, as distinct from competition coding.
Factual · 28 Feb 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
28 Feb 2025 |
By the end of 2025, AI will do very serious things in coding.
Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
28 Feb 2025 |
Anthropic's approach to reasoning models in Sonnet 3.7 emphasized different things from competitors' reasoning models.
Factual · 28 Feb 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Feb 2025 |
The lack of understanding of how AI systems work is essentially unprecedented in the history of technology.
Factual · 18 Feb 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mixed |
Factual |
18 Feb 2025 |
People outside the AI field are often surprised and alarmed to learn that AI creators do not understand how their AI systems work.
Factual · 18 Feb 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Feb 2025 |
When Anthropic was founded, its founders made mechanistic interpretability a central part of the company's direction, focused on LLMs.
Factual · 18 Feb 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Feb 2025 |
Amodei said that "we" were able to provide a strong theoretical basis for having conviction that superposition was the right hypothesis to pursue; the surrounding text does not say who "we" refers to.
Factual · 18 Feb 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Feb 2025 |
It became clear that superposition would be a central problem for language models, much worse than in vision models.
Factual · 18 Feb 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Feb 2025 |
Modern generative AI systems are opaque in a way that fundamentally differs from traditional software.
Factual · 18 Feb 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
18 Feb 2025 |
Anthropic created "Golden Gate Claude", a version of one of its models with the Golden Gate Bridge feature artificially amplified, making it obsessed with the bridge.
Factual · 18 Feb 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
18 Feb 2025 |
Circuits, groups of features, allow researchers to trace an AI model's thinking steps.
Factual · 18 Feb 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
11 Nov 2024 |
Anthropic's Responsible Scaling Policy uses an if-then structure: if models pass a certain capability, Anthropic imposes a set of safety and security requirements.
Factual · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly false |
Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Amodei said that, after progress from 3% to 50% on SWE-bench in 10 months, state-of-the-art models would probably be at about 90% in another year, while adding that he did not know and it might be less.
Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
11 Nov 2024 |
Anthropic released computer use first in API form rather than to consumers, partly for safety reasons.
Factual · 11 Nov 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Amodei guessed that by about November 2025, AI models would be able to perform computer-use tasks very, very reliably.
Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Dario Amodei said he would not be surprised at all if Anthropic's models hit ASL-3 in 2025.
Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
11 Nov 2024 |
Anthropic's Responsible Scaling Policy does not specify ASL-4 requirements until ASL-3 has been reached.
Factual · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved false |
Prediction |
11 Nov 2024 |
Amodei guessed that within about 10 months AI models would probably get pretty close on typical real-world programming tasks, reaching at least 90%.
Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
11 Nov 2024 |
On some computer-use benchmarks, previous models succeeded about 6% of the time and Anthropic's new model succeeds 14 or 22% of the time.
Factual · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
11 Nov 2024 |
Anthropic's updated Claude Sonnet 3.5 scores about 50% on SWE-bench.
Factual · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
11 Nov 2024 |
Anthropic wants to evaluate every new model to see whether it is getting close to dangerous (CBRN) capabilities, and does not think current models yet pose these risks seriously.
Factual · 11 Nov 2024 |
Biosecurity |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
11 Nov 2024 |
Amodei first joined the AI field in late 2014, working at Baidu with Andrew Ng.
Factual · 11 Nov 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
11 Nov 2024 |
Anthropic has almost a thousand employees, and its risk policy is meant to make sure they understand that taking these risks seriously is one of the company's highest priorities, if not the highest.
Factual · 11 Nov 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
11 Nov 2024 |
DeepMind's AlphaGo Zero required no example data from humans.
Factual · 11 Nov 2024 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Apr 2024 |
The Guns of August describes how the crisis erupted quickly and almost no one grasped the full picture.
Factual · 12 Apr 2024 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Apr 2024 |
Anthropic's experiment found its large model nearly matched a hired human team in changing people's views with persuasive essays.
Factual · 12 Apr 2024 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
12 Apr 2024 |
The Star Trek series depicts a highly developed universe in which humans live longer and have expanded into space.
Factual · 12 Apr 2024 |
Other |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
12 Apr 2024 |
Anthropic introduced its Responsible Scaling Plan at the end of 2023, setting thresholds for AI system capabilities.
Factual · 12 Apr 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed |
Factual |
12 Apr 2024 |
我们和其他一些研究者发现,模型里有时会有某些特定的神经元和统计指标(这些通常不出现在它的外部反应中),这些指标能够指示模型是在撒谎还是在说真话。
Factual · 12 Apr 2024 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
12 Apr 2024 |
Anthropic's models are currently at AI Safety Level ASL-2.
Factual · 12 Apr 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
8 Aug 2023 |
Anthropic published a blog post on security stating it has a two-key system for access to model weights.
Factual · 8 Aug 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
8 Aug 2023 |
As of August 2023, mechanistic interpretability is not nearly capable enough to verify that a model is aligned.
Factual · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
8 Aug 2023 |
Existing alignment methods succeed in aligning AI systems for today's tasks.
Factual · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
In a year or two (from 2023), AI model consciousness might become a very real concern.
Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
8 Aug 2023 |
Amodei said Anthropic "kind of" already does reinforcement learning, through RLHF.
Factual · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
8 Aug 2023 |
Anthropic's initial constitution for its models drew on broadly agreed sources such as the UN Declaration of Human Rights and parts of Apple's Terms of Service.
Factual · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
8 Aug 2023 |
AI models will not have enough autonomy within two years to raise alignment concerns, though that may not be far behind.
Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
13 Oct 2022 |
Because reasoning-focused RL is new, the amount all AI developers spend on the RL training stage is still small, so the field is early on its scaling curve.
Factual · 13 Oct 2022 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
13 Oct 2022 |
The current rate of algorithmic curve shift is maybe about 4x per year.
Factual · 13 Oct 2022 |
AI compute, hardware and data |
| Mixed |
Factual |
13 Oct 2022 |
DeepSeek was not substantially more resource-constrained than US AI companies, and export controls were not the main factor causing its innovation.
Factual · 13 Oct 2022 |
AI policy and governance |
| Resolved false |
Prediction |
13 Oct 2022 |
The situation where several companies can produce good reasoning models will rapidly cease as everyone moves further up the scaling curve.
Prediction · 13 Oct 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
13 Oct 2022 |
Dario Amodei and his co-founders were among the first to document, while at OpenAI, that scaling up AI training smoothly improves results across a range of cognitive tasks.
Factual · 13 Oct 2022 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
13 Oct 2022 |
Improvements in training cost efficiency typically lead AI companies to spend more, not less, on training models.
Factual · 13 Oct 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
13 Oct 2022 |
Amodei said he thinks a fair statement is that DeepSeek produced a model close in performance to US models 7-10 months older, at a good deal less cost but not near the ratios people have suggested.
Factual · 13 Oct 2022 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
21 Jul 2017 |
OpenAI and DeepMind both have a focus on safety and both have safety teams.
Factual · 21 Jul 2017 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
21 Jul 2017 |
Getting started in machine learning probably requires about a thousand dollars to buy a GPU.
Factual · 21 Jul 2017 |
Field building and careers |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
21 Jul 2017 |
There was a lot of political instability in the western world in the year before July 2017.
Factual · 21 Jul 2017 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mixed |
Factual |
21 Jul 2017 |
For almost a decade before 2017, self-driving cars have existed that are 99.9% safe.
Factual · 21 Jul 2017 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
21 Jul 2017 |
Dario Amodei's PhD was not in machine learning.
Factual · 21 Jul 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
21 Jul 2017 |
OpenAI is a nonprofit AI research lab.
Factual · 21 Jul 2017 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
AI seems likely to enable much better propaganda and surveillance, which are major tools of autocrats.
Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Prediction |
17 Aug 2015 |
Climate change will be felt much more strongly in the developing world, hampering its development.
Prediction · 17 Aug 2015 |
Other global risks |
| Mixed |
Factual |
17 Aug 2015 |
Poorly implemented services are currently a major driver of cynicism about government.
Factual · 17 Aug 2015 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
17 Aug 2015 |
The impact of nuclear power, supersonic flight and elevators has been substantially reduced by regulations or misplaced fears despite working well technically.
Factual · 17 Aug 2015 |
AI policy and governance |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
17 Aug 2015 |
Diseases have been eradicated and many countries have gone from poor to rich, through decisions that exhibit high returns to intelligence.
Factual · 17 Aug 2015 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
17 Aug 2015 |
Although drug development is overly cumbersome, once developed drugs are generally successfully deployed and used.
Factual · 17 Aug 2015 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
17 Aug 2015 |
Human economic planners made the decisions that led to several East Asian economies' late-20th-century growth by pulling a few key levers such as export-led industrial policy, not by directly controlling whole economies.
Factual · 17 Aug 2015 |
Economics and markets |
| Mixed |
Factual |
17 Aug 2015 |
Smallpox was fully eliminated in the 1970s, and polio and guinea worm are nearly eradicated with fewer than 100 cases per year.
Factual · 17 Aug 2015 |
Biosecurity |