ClaimsPeople

Bill Gates

Bill Gates is a co-founder of Microsoft, chair of the Gates Foundation, and author of the Gates Notes blog.

583 claims collected, 186 researched, 85 resolved. Report of 10 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    77 71 83

    High confidence, 79 factual claims resolved. From 17 documents, 1999 to 2026; 18 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

    Not scored: 16 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    58 38 77

    Low confidence, 6 predictions resolved. From 4 documents, 2015 to 2025; 18 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

    Not scored: 49 unresolvable. 26 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

All types combined: 75 (likely 70 to 81, high confidence), from 85 claims: 79 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Gates's claims

26 claims

26 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 29 Aug 2026 Capable robots that let AI do physical jobs across the economy will arrive within a couple of years. Prediction · 29 Aug 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Prediction 9 Jan 2026 Bill Gates said he thinks the impact of AI on the job market will grow over the next five years. Prediction · 9 Jan 2026 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Prediction 9 Jan 2026 By the 2040s, new innovations could virtually eliminate deaths from HIV/AIDS. Prediction · 9 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Prediction 9 Jan 2026 If health funding for poor countries decreases by 20 percent, 12 million more children could die by 2045. Prediction · 9 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Prediction 9 Jan 2026 Bill Gates said he believes that within the next decade the world will get back on track and enter a new era of unprecedented progress. Prediction · 9 Jan 2026 Other
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Malaria will not be completely eradicated by 2030, but all tools needed to eradicate it will exist by then. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Lives of people in poor countries will improve faster in the 15 years to 2030 than at any other time in history. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction 2015 In 15 years the world will be poised to eradicate malaria as smallpox was and polio is being. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Prediction 2015 More parents in poor countries will know their children aren't going to die. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Online classes, now often disconnected from career paths, will become linked to career requirements. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Online education technology will advance even more over the next 15 years. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years, lives of people in poor countries will improve more than anyone else's. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Language-learning software will let students speak aloud and give feedback on pronunciation. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Before starting primary school, children will be able to use a parent's smartphone to learn numbers and letters. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years, the pace of global health improvements will increase even faster than in the past. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Learning software will detect when a student struggles and adjust to their pace. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Bill Gates said "we think" the next 15 years will see major breakthroughs for most people in poor countries. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Africa can achieve food security by 2030. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Breakthroughs in poor countries over the next 15 years will be driven by technology innovation, from new vaccines and hardier crops to cheaper smartphones, and by delivery innovations. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 2015 In the next 15 years digital banking will give the poor more control over their assets. Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years more innovations will reach the poor than ever before. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Within 15 years, farming innovations will end the paradox of African farmers suffering malnutrition. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction 2015 With the right investments, African farm productivity can rise 50 percent for the continent overall. Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2015 The world will make unprecedented progress in global health over the next 15 years. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction 2015 By 2030, 2 billion people without a bank account in 2015 will store money and make payments with their phones. Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Child deaths will fall by half, and more diseases will be eradicated than ever before. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
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Bill Gates

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Prediction AI, the economy and work

“What’s weird about AI is it’s better at doing jobs across the entire economy, including physical jobs when the robots come — which you can guess when that is, but my view is it’s only a couple of years.”

Bill Gates, interviewed by GeekWire 29 August 2026 Bill Gates in his own words: How he's using AI, and why he's worried about the future (GeekWire)

Capable robots that let AI do physical jobs across the economy will arrive within a couple of years.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2028 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “Capable robots that let AI do physical jobs across the economy will arrive within a couple of years.” (said 29 August 2026). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_f01aa815e705, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f01aa815e705

Claims without a verdict

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