ClaimsPeople

Bill Gates

Bill Gates is a co-founder of Microsoft, chair of the Gates Foundation, and author of the Gates Notes blog.

583 claims collected, 186 researched, 85 resolved. Report of 10 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    77 71 83

    High confidence, 79 factual claims resolved. From 17 documents, 1999 to 2026; 18 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

    Not scored: 16 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    58 38 77

    Low confidence, 6 predictions resolved. From 4 documents, 2015 to 2025; 18 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

    Not scored: 49 unresolvable. 26 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

All types combined: 75 (likely 70 to 81, high confidence), from 85 claims: 79 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Gates's claims

186 claims · page 2 of 2

186 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Lives of people in poor countries will improve faster in the 15 years to 2030 than at any other time in history. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction 2015 In 15 years the world will be poised to eradicate malaria as smallpox was and polio is being. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Prediction 2015 More parents in poor countries will know their children aren't going to die. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 2015 As costs fall and incomes rise, more people will afford online education and the world will be well on its way to high-quality education for everyone. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Online classes, now often disconnected from career paths, will become linked to career requirements. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Mostly true Factual 2015 NATO has a mobile unit that can deploy very rapidly. Factual · 2015 Other global risks
Resolved true Factual 2015 The UN agreed on a set of development goals once before, in 2000, and the authors call it one of the best ideas for development either of them has ever seen; they say it focused the world on key measures of basics such as good health and a chance to get an education. Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Prediction 2015 Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Factual 2015 Small loans have helped millions of people but have reached only a small fraction of the poorest, with relatively high interest rates. Factual · 2015 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2015 Bill and Melinda Gates wrote the 2015 Annual Letter about what the future holds. Factual · 2015 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Online education technology will advance even more over the next 15 years. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years, lives of people in poor countries will improve more than anyone else's. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Mostly true Factual 2015 At the Ebola outbreak there was no group of epidemiologists ready to deploy to identify the disease and its spread. Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Prediction 2015 Software will never replace teachers. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Language-learning software will let students speak aloud and give feedback on pronunciation. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 2015 Advances in biology should dramatically shorten the time to analyse a pathogen and make fitting drugs and vaccines. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Resolved true Factual 2015 Some digital financial innovation is happening first in poor countries. Factual · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Before starting primary school, children will be able to use a parent's smartphone to learn numbers and letters. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Mostly true Factual 2015 There was no medical team ready to deploy to the Ebola outbreak. Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Factual 2015 The 2014 Ebola outbreak did not reach many urban areas. Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Factual 2015 Ebola does not spread through the air, and by the time people are contagious most are too sick to move about. Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years, the pace of global health improvements will increase even faster than in the past. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Mixed Factual 2015 Regulations in most countries still limit digital banking, preventing innovators from entering. Factual · 2015 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Learning software will detect when a student struggles and adjust to their pace. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Bill Gates said "we think" the next 15 years will see major breakthroughs for most people in poor countries. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Africa can achieve food security by 2030. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 2015 A really good epidemic response system can be built. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Prediction 2015 Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Breakthroughs in poor countries over the next 15 years will be driven by technology innovation, from new vaccines and hardier crops to cheaper smartphones, and by delivery innovations. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 2015 In the next 15 years digital banking will give the poor more control over their assets. Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Over the next 15 years more innovations will reach the poor than ever before. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Within 15 years, farming innovations will end the paradox of African farmers suffering malnutrition. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction 2015 With the right investments, African farm productivity can rise 50 percent for the continent overall. Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2015 Bill Gates followed the Ebola outbreak closely using the case analysis tools used to track polio eradication. Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Factual 2015 The companies pioneering mobile banking find serving the poor profitable because the marginal cost of a digital transaction is near zero. Factual · 2015 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2015 Famine in Africa will strike less often, and African countries will lead the response when it does. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 2015 Failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Prediction 2015 A large epidemic would require hundreds of thousands of health workers. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mixed Factual 2015 The last germ-game simulation in the United States was in 2001 and it did not go well. Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Factual 2015 The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics, but not to do the other outbreak-related tasks the speaker had described. Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Prediction 2015 The world will make unprecedented progress in global health over the next 15 years. Prediction · 2015 Other global risks
Not yet due Prediction 2015 By 2030, 2 billion people without a bank account in 2015 will store money and make payments with their phones. Prediction · 2015 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 2015 During the Ebola outbreak there was no epidemic response system at all, rather than one that worked poorly. Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Mixed Factual 2015 Traditional banks cannot afford to serve the poor because of their costs. Factual · 2015 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2015 Online education will open new opportunities for girls with the means and motivation to use it. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 2015 As high-speed cell networks grow and smartphones become as cheap as voice-only phones, online education will flourish. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 2015 Online courses will become a global asset available to anyone with a smartphone or tablet. Prediction · 2015 Technology
Resolved true Prediction 2015 In the epidemic shown, which would spread throughout the world very quickly, over 30 million people die. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Prediction 2015 If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it will most likely be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Factual 2015 Ebola case reports came in on paper, were put online with long delay, and were extremely inaccurate. Factual · 2015 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Prediction 2015 The next epidemic might not be contained by luck as Ebola was. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Not yet due Prediction 2015 Child deaths will fall by half, and more diseases will be eradicated than ever before. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Factual 2015 About 15 years before 2015, online education amounted to little more than filming a university lecturer and recording. Factual · 2015 Technology
Resolved true Factual 2010 Per-capita CO2 emissions for each American are about 20 tons per year. Factual · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 2010 Natural ecosystems cannot adjust to rapid warming, so ecosystem collapses will occur. Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Mostly true Factual 2010 The world population is 6.8 billion people. Factual · 2010 Other
Mostly true Factual 2010 Almost every way of making electricity today, except the emerging renewables and nuclear, emits CO2. Factual · 2010 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 2010 If optimistic, the overall reduction from improvements may be a factor of three to perhaps six. Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 2010 Worsening climate will mean that in many years the crops of the world's poorest people will fail to grow. Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 2010 With a really great job on new vaccines, health care and reproductive health services, the projected world population of about nine billion could be lowered by perhaps 10% or 15%. Prediction · 2010 Other
Mostly true Factual 2010 Global CO2 emissions have been constantly rising, only flattened somewhat by economic changes. Factual · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Factual 2010 All batteries made now could store less than 10 minutes of the world's electrical energy use. Factual · 2010 Technology
Resolved true Factual 2010 CO2 is warming the planet. Factual · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 2010 Geoengineering techniques could delay global heating by 20 or 30 years. Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 2010 Climate-driven crop failures will lead to starvation, uncertainty and unrest among the poorest. Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Mostly true Factual 2010 Burning coal cannot bring CO2 emissions to zero. Factual · 2010 Technology
Resolved true Factual 2010 The IPCC report does not necessarily represent the worst case for climate change. Factual · 2010 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 2010 Global temperature will keep rising until CO2 emissions get near zero. Prediction · 2010 Other global risks
Mostly true Factual 2010 Today's nuclear reactors are constantly refueled, requiring many people and controls that can go wrong. Factual · 2010 Technology
Mostly true Factual 7 Jun 2007 For every person in the world who has access to this technology, five people do not. Factual · 7 Jun 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Factual 7 Jun 2007 The market did not reward saving the lives of children in poor countries from preventable diseases, and governments did not subsidize it. Factual · 7 Jun 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 7 Jun 2007 Interventions costing under a dollar could save lives but were not being delivered. Factual · 7 Jun 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 7 Jun 2007 After being told to come back in a month, Bill Gates worked day and night on a software project that he said ended his college education and began his journey with Microsoft. Factual · 7 Jun 2007 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 30 Mar 1999 There has been a lot of free software available over the 20 years before 1999. Factual · 30 Mar 1999 Technology
Mostly true Factual 30 Mar 1999 Linux and similar free software have proliferating different versions, because everybody can go into the source code, and everybody does. Factual · 30 Mar 1999 Technology
Own records only Factual 1999 In 1996 Microsoft printed 350,000 paper copies of sales reports. Factual · 1999 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 1999 In 1995 in The Road Ahead, Bill Gates used the term friction-free capitalism to describe how the Internet was helping create Adam Smith's ideal marketplace. Factual · 1999 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 1999 Companies that invest early in digital nervous systems to capture and analyze customer input will differentiate themselves from competitors. Prediction · 1999 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 1999 The successful companies of the next decade (after 1999) will be those that use digital tools to reinvent the way they work. Prediction · 1999 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 1999 Microsoft's outsourcing tempered the expansion of its work force and reduced management overhead but did not stop the work force from growing. Factual · 1999 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 1999 When customers ask Bill Gates what first step improves value from their information systems and collaboration, he always answers "E-mail." Factual · 1999 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 1999 Bill Gates reads all the e-mail that Microsoft employees send him. Factual · 1999 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 1999 Microsoft reduced its number of paper forms from more than 1,000 to a company-wide total of 60. Factual · 1999 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 1999 Bill Gates passes items from employee e-mail on to people for action. Factual · 1999 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 1999 Merchants who treat e-commerce as more than a digital cash register will do the best. Prediction · 1999 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 1995 People always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Prediction · 1995 Technology
Back to the list

Bill Gates

Open its page

Prediction Other global risks

“Our big bet: The lives of people in poor countries will improve faster in the next 15 years than at any other time in history.”

Bill and Melinda Gates, joint letter 2015 Bill and Melinda Gates, Annual Letter 2015 (Gates Notes)

Lives of people in poor countries will improve faster in the 15 years to 2030 than at any other time in history.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2030 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “Lives of people in poor countries will improve faster in the 15 years to 2030 than at any other time in history.” (said 2015). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_043b92e911a5, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_043b92e911a5

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Bill Gates? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.