Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
77 71 83 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
58 38 77
All types combined: 75 (likely 70 to 81, high confidence), from 85 claims: 79 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Bill Gates's claims
10 claims
“Thanks to major advances, an HIV-positive person receiving treatment now has the same expected lifespan as someone without HIV.”
Bill Gates, writing in annual letter section 10 February 2020 Why we swing for the fences (2020 Annual Letter) (Gates Notes)
An HIV-positive person receiving treatment now has the same expected lifespan as someone without HIV.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of February 2020. True: peer-reviewed cohort studies up to 2020 show that people with HIV on effective treatment have a life expectancy equal or essentially equal to that of the general population. Mostly true: studies show near-normal life expectancy (within a few years) under early treatment with viral suppression. Mostly false: the evidence shows a substantial remaining gap in life expectancy, or near parity only for a narrow subgroup such as those diagnosed early with high CD4 counts, so the general claim overstates it. False: the evidence shows that treated people with HIV have a far shorter life expectancy.
Evidence
- Survival of HIV-positive patients starting antiretroviral therapy between 1996 and 2013: a collaborative analysis of cohort studies PubMed Central (NCBI); peer-reviewed cohort analysis by the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC), published in The Lancet HIV · 10 May 2017
“Life expectancy in patients starting ART has increased by about 10 years during the ART era, but remains lower than in the general population. Patients who started ART during 2008–10 whose CD4 counts exceeded 350 cells per μL 1 year after ART initiation have estimated life expectancy approaching that of the general population.”
- Survival of HIV-positive patients starting antiretroviral therapy between 1996 and 2013: a collaborative analysis of cohort studies PubMed Central (NCBI); peer-reviewed cohort analysis by the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC), published in The Lancet HIV · 10 May 2017
“Our study, based on a large collaboration of cohorts in Europe and North America, found that substantial declines in mortality for individuals starting ART in 2008–10, compared with earlier years, has resulted in increased life expectancy. However, this life expectancy remains lower than that of the general population.”
- Improved life expectancy of people living with HIV: who is left behind? PubMed Central (NCBI); commentary on ART-CC and NA-ACCORD cohort data (the journal is not named on the page) · 10 May 2017
“Despite these improvements, cohort studies show a small but persistent gap in the lifespan between HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals, particularly within key affected populations.”
- Improved life expectancy of people living with HIV: who is left behind? PubMed Central (NCBI); commentary on ART-CC and NA-ACCORD cohort data (the journal is not named on the page) · 10 May 2017
“However, life expectancy remains lower in people living with HIV than in the general population, and there is little evidence of a mortality reduction in people who inject drugs.”
Reasoning
The ART-CC cohort analysis in E1 and E2 finds that life expectancy for people starting HIV treatment rose by about 10 years but "remains lower than in the general population." E1 estimates that patients who started treatment in 2008–10 and whose CD4 counts exceeded 350 cells per μL one year after starting have life expectancy approaching that of the general population. The commentary in E3 and E4 describes a small but persistent lifespan gap, and notes little evidence of lower mortality among people who inject drugs. The evidence reports that life expectancy on treatment remains lower than in the general population [E1][E2][E4], with a small but persistent gap [E3], and estimates life expectancy approaching general-population levels for a subgroup defined by high CD4 counts [E1]. On that basis, the general claim of the "same" lifespan overstates it.
Cite this claim
Bill Gates, “An HIV-positive person receiving treatment now has the same expected lifespan as someone without HIV.” (said 10 February 2020). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_fcd384c3de47, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fcd384c3de47
Claims without a verdict
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