Bill Gates: checked claims

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

Factual claims

Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

77 71 83

High confidence, 79 factual claims resolved. From 17 documents, 1999 to 2026; 18 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

Not scored: 16 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records.

See the factual claims
Predictions

Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

58 38 77

Low confidence, 6 predictions resolved. From 4 documents, 2015 to 2025; 18 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

Not scored: 49 unresolvable. 26 more fall due later.
Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

See the predictions

All types combined: 75 (likely 70 to 81, high confidence), from 85 claims: 79 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Gates's claims

186 claims · page 2 of 2

186 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	Lives of people in poor countries will improve faster in the 15 years to 2030 than at any other time in history. Prediction · 2015	Other global risks
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	In 15 years the world will be poised to eradicate malaria as smallpox was and polio is being. Prediction · 2015	Biosecurity
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	More parents in poor countries will know their children aren't going to die. Prediction · 2015	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	2015	As costs fall and incomes rise, more people will afford online education and the world will be well on its way to high-quality education for everyone. Prediction · 2015	Technology
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	Online classes, now often disconnected from career paths, will become linked to career requirements. Prediction · 2015	Technology
Mostly true	Factual	2015	NATO has a mobile unit that can deploy very rapidly. Factual · 2015	Other global risks
Resolved true	Factual	2015	The UN agreed on a set of development goals once before, in 2000, and the authors call it one of the best ideas for development either of them has ever seen; they say it focused the world on key measures of basics such as good health and a chance to get an education. Factual · 2015	Their own work or organisation
Mostly false	Prediction	2015	Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center. Prediction · 2015	Biosecurity
Mostly true	Factual	2015	Small loans have helped millions of people but have reached only a small fraction of the poorest, with relatively high interest rates. Factual · 2015	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	2015	Bill and Melinda Gates wrote the 2015 Annual Letter about what the future holds. Factual · 2015	Their own work or organisation
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	Online education technology will advance even more over the next 15 years. Prediction · 2015	Technology
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	Over the next 15 years, lives of people in poor countries will improve more than anyone else's. Prediction · 2015	Other global risks
Mostly true	Factual	2015	At the Ebola outbreak there was no group of epidemiologists ready to deploy to identify the disease and its spread. Factual · 2015	Biosecurity
Unresolvable	Prediction	2015	Software will never replace teachers. Prediction · 2015	Technology
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	Language-learning software will let students speak aloud and give feedback on pronunciation. Prediction · 2015	Technology
Unresolvable	Prediction	2015	Advances in biology should dramatically shorten the time to analyse a pathogen and make fitting drugs and vaccines. Prediction · 2015	Biosecurity
Resolved true	Factual	2015	Some digital financial innovation is happening first in poor countries. Factual · 2015	Technology
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	Before starting primary school, children will be able to use a parent's smartphone to learn numbers and letters. Prediction · 2015	Technology
Mostly true	Factual	2015	There was no medical team ready to deploy to the Ebola outbreak. Factual · 2015	Biosecurity
Mostly false	Factual	2015	The 2014 Ebola outbreak did not reach many urban areas. Factual · 2015	Biosecurity
Mostly true	Factual	2015	Ebola does not spread through the air, and by the time people are contagious most are too sick to move about. Factual · 2015	Biosecurity
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	Over the next 15 years, the pace of global health improvements will increase even faster than in the past. Prediction · 2015	Other global risks
Mixed	Factual	2015	Regulations in most countries still limit digital banking, preventing innovators from entering. Factual · 2015	Economics and markets
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	Learning software will detect when a student struggles and adjust to their pace. Prediction · 2015	Technology
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	Bill Gates said "we think" the next 15 years will see major breakthroughs for most people in poor countries. Prediction · 2015	Other global risks
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	Africa can achieve food security by 2030. Prediction · 2015	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	2015	A really good epidemic response system can be built. Prediction · 2015	Biosecurity
Mostly false	Prediction	2015	Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years. Prediction · 2015	Biosecurity
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	Breakthroughs in poor countries over the next 15 years will be driven by technology innovation, from new vaccines and hardier crops to cheaper smartphones, and by delivery innovations. Prediction · 2015	Technology
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	In the next 15 years digital banking will give the poor more control over their assets. Prediction · 2015	Economics and markets
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	Over the next 15 years more innovations will reach the poor than ever before. Prediction · 2015	Technology
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	Within 15 years, farming innovations will end the paradox of African farmers suffering malnutrition. Prediction · 2015	Other global risks
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	With the right investments, African farm productivity can rise 50 percent for the continent overall. Prediction · 2015	Economics and markets
Own records only	Factual	2015	Bill Gates followed the Ebola outbreak closely using the case analysis tools used to track polio eradication. Factual · 2015	Biosecurity
Unresolvable	Factual	2015	The companies pioneering mobile banking find serving the poor profitable because the marginal cost of a digital transaction is near zero. Factual · 2015	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2015	Famine in Africa will strike less often, and African countries will lead the response when it does. Prediction · 2015	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	2015	Failure to prepare could allow the next epidemic to be dramatically more devastating than Ebola. Prediction · 2015	Biosecurity
Unresolvable	Prediction	2015	A large epidemic would require hundreds of thousands of health workers. Prediction · 2015	Biosecurity
Mixed	Factual	2015	The last germ-game simulation in the United States was in 2001 and it did not go well. Factual · 2015	Biosecurity
Mostly true	Factual	2015	The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics, but not to do the other outbreak-related tasks the speaker had described. Factual · 2015	Biosecurity
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	The world will make unprecedented progress in global health over the next 15 years. Prediction · 2015	Other global risks
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	By 2030, 2 billion people without a bank account in 2015 will store money and make payments with their phones. Prediction · 2015	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Factual	2015	During the Ebola outbreak there was no epidemic response system at all, rather than one that worked poorly. Factual · 2015	Biosecurity
Mixed	Factual	2015	Traditional banks cannot afford to serve the poor because of their costs. Factual · 2015	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2015	Online education will open new opportunities for girls with the means and motivation to use it. Prediction · 2015	Technology
Unresolvable	Prediction	2015	As high-speed cell networks grow and smartphones become as cheap as voice-only phones, online education will flourish. Prediction · 2015	Technology
Unresolvable	Prediction	2015	Online courses will become a global asset available to anyone with a smartphone or tablet. Prediction · 2015	Technology
Resolved true	Prediction	2015	In the epidemic shown, which would spread throughout the world very quickly, over 30 million people die. Prediction · 2015	Biosecurity
Mostly true	Prediction	2015	If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it will most likely be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Prediction · 2015	Biosecurity
Unresolvable	Factual	2015	Ebola case reports came in on paper, were put online with long delay, and were extremely inaccurate. Factual · 2015	Biosecurity
Unresolvable	Prediction	2015	The next epidemic might not be contained by luck as Ebola was. Prediction · 2015	Biosecurity
Not yet due	Prediction	2015	Child deaths will fall by half, and more diseases will be eradicated than ever before. Prediction · 2015	Biosecurity
Mostly false	Factual	2015	About 15 years before 2015, online education amounted to little more than filming a university lecturer and recording. Factual · 2015	Technology
Resolved true	Factual	2010	Per-capita CO2 emissions for each American are about 20 tons per year. Factual · 2010	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	2010	Natural ecosystems cannot adjust to rapid warming, so ecosystem collapses will occur. Prediction · 2010	Other global risks
Mostly true	Factual	2010	The world population is 6.8 billion people. Factual · 2010	Other
Mostly true	Factual	2010	Almost every way of making electricity today, except the emerging renewables and nuclear, emits CO2. Factual · 2010	Technology
Unresolvable	Prediction	2010	If optimistic, the overall reduction from improvements may be a factor of three to perhaps six. Prediction · 2010	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	2010	Worsening climate will mean that in many years the crops of the world's poorest people will fail to grow. Prediction · 2010	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	2010	With a really great job on new vaccines, health care and reproductive health services, the projected world population of about nine billion could be lowered by perhaps 10% or 15%. Prediction · 2010	Other
Mostly true	Factual	2010	Global CO2 emissions have been constantly rising, only flattened somewhat by economic changes. Factual · 2010	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Factual	2010	All batteries made now could store less than 10 minutes of the world's electrical energy use. Factual · 2010	Technology
Resolved true	Factual	2010	CO2 is warming the planet. Factual · 2010	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	2010	Geoengineering techniques could delay global heating by 20 or 30 years. Prediction · 2010	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	2010	Climate-driven crop failures will lead to starvation, uncertainty and unrest among the poorest. Prediction · 2010	Other global risks
Mostly true	Factual	2010	Burning coal cannot bring CO2 emissions to zero. Factual · 2010	Technology
Resolved true	Factual	2010	The IPCC report does not necessarily represent the worst case for climate change. Factual · 2010	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	2010	Global temperature will keep rising until CO2 emissions get near zero. Prediction · 2010	Other global risks
Mostly true	Factual	2010	Today's nuclear reactors are constantly refueled, requiring many people and controls that can go wrong. Factual · 2010	Technology
Mostly true	Factual	7 Jun 2007	For every person in the world who has access to this technology, five people do not. Factual · 7 Jun 2007	Technology
Unresolvable	Factual	7 Jun 2007	The market did not reward saving the lives of children in poor countries from preventable diseases, and governments did not subsidize it. Factual · 7 Jun 2007	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	7 Jun 2007	Interventions costing under a dollar could save lives but were not being delivered. Factual · 7 Jun 2007	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	7 Jun 2007	After being told to come back in a month, Bill Gates worked day and night on a software project that he said ended his college education and began his journey with Microsoft. Factual · 7 Jun 2007	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	30 Mar 1999	There has been a lot of free software available over the 20 years before 1999. Factual · 30 Mar 1999	Technology
Mostly true	Factual	30 Mar 1999	Linux and similar free software have proliferating different versions, because everybody can go into the source code, and everybody does. Factual · 30 Mar 1999	Technology
Own records only	Factual	1999	In 1996 Microsoft printed 350,000 paper copies of sales reports. Factual · 1999	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	1999	In 1995 in The Road Ahead, Bill Gates used the term friction-free capitalism to describe how the Internet was helping create Adam Smith's ideal marketplace. Factual · 1999	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	1999	Companies that invest early in digital nervous systems to capture and analyze customer input will differentiate themselves from competitors. Prediction · 1999	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	1999	The successful companies of the next decade (after 1999) will be those that use digital tools to reinvent the way they work. Prediction · 1999	Economics and markets
Own records only	Factual	1999	Microsoft's outsourcing tempered the expansion of its work force and reduced management overhead but did not stop the work force from growing. Factual · 1999	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	1999	When customers ask Bill Gates what first step improves value from their information systems and collaboration, he always answers "E-mail." Factual · 1999	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	1999	Bill Gates reads all the e-mail that Microsoft employees send him. Factual · 1999	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	1999	Microsoft reduced its number of paper forms from more than 1,000 to a company-wide total of 60. Factual · 1999	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	1999	Bill Gates passes items from employee e-mail on to people for action. Factual · 1999	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	1999	Merchants who treat e-commerce as more than a digital cash register will do the best. Prediction · 1999	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	1995	People always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Prediction · 1995	Technology

Back to the list

Bill Gates

Open its page

Factual Other global risks

“CO2 is warming the planet,”

Bill Gates, TED speaker 2010 Innovating to Zero (TED 2010) transcript (Singju Post)

CO2 is warming the planet.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2010. True: the scientific assessments of the time (for example IPCC AR4 in 2007, and statements by national academies) concluded that rising CO2 concentrations are warming the planet. Mostly true: the assessments attributed warming to greenhouse gases generally, with CO2 as the main one. Mixed: the scientific evidence was substantially divided. Mostly false: CO2 was found to have only a minor role. False: the scientific evidence showed that CO2 does not cause warming.

Evidence

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Summary for Policymakers) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) · 2007
“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”
The Science of Climate Change: Questions and Answers Australian Academy of Science · August 2010
“It is known that increasing the atmospheric concentration of the principal anthropogenic greenhouse gas, CO2, leads to higher mean global surface temperatures.”
The Science of Climate Change: Questions and Answers Australian Academy of Science · August 2010
“Human activities are increasing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. It is very likely that most of the recent observed global warming is caused by this increase in greenhouse gases.”
IPCC adopts major assessment of climate change science DieselNet · 6 February 2007
“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”

Reasoning

The IPCC AR4 Summary for Policymakers (E1, also reported in E4) concluded that most of the warming observed since the mid-20th century was very likely due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. The Australian Academy of Science's 2010 report states that higher atmospheric concentrations of CO2, the principal anthropogenic greenhouse gas, lead to higher mean global surface temperatures (E2). The same report says it is very likely that most of the recent warming is caused by rising greenhouse gases (E3). Under the criteria, these assessments from the time support the claim that CO2 is warming the planet.

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “CO2 is warming the planet.” (said 2010). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_81fdd67a3482, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_81fdd67a3482

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Bill Gates? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.