Bill Gates

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

• Factual claims

  Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

  77 71 83

  High confidence, 79 factual claims resolved. From 17 documents, 1999 to 2026; 18 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

  Not scored: 16 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records.

  See the factual claims

• Predictions

  Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

  58 38 77

  Low confidence, 6 predictions resolved. From 4 documents, 2015 to 2025; 18 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

  Not scored: 49 unresolvable. 26 more fall due later.

  Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  See the predictions

All types combined: 75 (likely 70 to 81, high confidence), from 85 claims: 79 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.