Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
-
Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
77 71 83 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
58 38 77
All types combined: 75 (likely 70 to 81, high confidence), from 85 claims: 79 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Bill Gates's claims
10 claims
“Third, it didn't get into many urban areas, and that was just luck.”
Bill Gates, giving TED talk 2015 Transcript of Bill Gates TED Talk 2015: The next outbreak? We're not ready (Rev)
The 2014 Ebola outbreak did not reach many urban areas.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2015, the date of the statement. The test is whether the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak mostly failed to reach or spread in urban areas. True: epidemiological reports show transmission confined almost entirely to rural areas, with few or no cities seeing sustained spread. Mostly true: most urban areas were spared and urban transmission was limited and brief, with only a city or two seeing modest spread. Mixed: the outbreak reached a substantial number of cities, but sustained urban transmission was limited to a few, while most cities it reached elsewhere contained it quickly. Mostly false: sustained, large-scale transmission occurred in several major cities, for example national capitals of affected countries, even though some other cities it reached (for example in Nigeria or Senegal) contained it quickly. False: the outbreak spread widely and was sustained in many urban areas.
Evidence
- West African Ebola Epidemic after One Year — Slowing but Not Yet under Control WHO Ebola Response Team (N Engl J Med, letter; PubMed Central author manuscript) · 24 December 2014
“EVD has been persistently active in Conakry, the capital of Guinea, since March and highly active in all three national capitals since June.”
- West African Ebola Epidemic after One Year — Slowing but Not Yet under Control WHO Ebola Response Team (N Engl J Med, letter; PubMed Central author manuscript) · 24 December 2014
“During the period of peak incidence between August 11 and October 5, Monrovia, Liberia, averaged close to 200 confirmed or probable cases per week.”
- Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections WHO Ebola Response Team (N Engl J Med, via PubMed Central) · 22 September 2014
“From July onward, there were sharp increases in case numbers at the epidemic foci in all three countries, at other sites away from the epicenter, and in the capital cities of Conakry, Freetown, and Monrovia”
- CDC’s Response to the 2014–2016 Ebola Epidemic — Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (MMWR Supplement) · 8 July 2016
“However, with subsequent introductions of Ebola into urban areas, new cases occurred rapidly, and contacts moved across borders, facilitating uncontrolled spread.”
Reasoning
WHO Ebola Response Team reports describe sharp increases in case numbers in the capitals Conakry, Freetown and Monrovia from July 2014 (E3). They also say the disease was persistently active in Conakry and highly active in all three national capitals from June (E1). Monrovia alone averaged close to 200 cases per week at the peak (E2). The CDC also describes rapid, uncontrolled spread after the virus reached urban areas (E4). This sustained, large-scale spread in several national capitals matches the criteria's definition of "mostly false". The evidence does not show sustained spread in many other cities beyond these, so the verdict is not fully false.
Cite this claim
Bill Gates, “The 2014 Ebola outbreak did not reach many urban areas.” (said 2015). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_4dbb482db37d, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4dbb482db37d
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Bill Gates? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.