Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
76 70 81 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
68 54 82 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Bill Ackman's claims
3 claims
| Verdict | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly true | Prediction | Aug 2024 | Pershing Square believed Universal Music Group's underperformance in the latest quarter would prove short-term and said it did not change its view of UMG's medium and long-term growth prospects. Prediction · Aug 2024 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Prediction | 2022 | Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022. Prediction · 2022 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Prediction | 5 May 2014 | Banks are not likely to step back in and provide meaningful mortgage investment. Prediction · 5 May 2014 | Economics and markets |
“We believe that UMG's underperformance this quarter will prove to be short-term in nature and does not impact our view of UMG's medium and long-term growth prospects.”
Pershing Square portfolio update, Ackman letter August 2024 Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Semiannual 2024 Letter: A Review (GuruFocus)
Pershing Square believed Universal Music Group's underperformance in the latest quarter would prove short-term and said it did not change its view of UMG's medium and long-term growth prospects.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
The weak quarter is UMG's Q2 2024 (reported July 2024), with slower subscription and ad-supported streaming growth. Judge it over the medium term, through roughly the end of 2025. True: within about four quarters, organic revenue and subscription-streaming growth returned to roughly UMG's pre-Q2-2024 growth rates or its stated medium-term targets, and UMG kept (or raised) its medium-term growth targets, for example at its September 2024 Capital Markets Day and afterwards. Mostly true: growth recovered and the targets were kept, but recovery took somewhat longer or one segment (for example ad-supported streaming) stayed weak. Mixed: growth only partly recovered, or the targets were kept while results stayed persistently below them. Mostly false: the slowdown persisted for most of the period and UMG or consensus moderated medium-term expectations. False: UMG cut its medium- or long-term growth targets because of the weakness, or growth stayed structurally lower through 2025.
Evidence
- Universal Music Group N.V. Provides New Financial Targets through FY 2028 Ahead of its 2024 Capital Markets Day PRNewswire (issued by Universal Music Group N.V.) · 17 September 2024
“Subscription revenue CAGR* | 8-10%”
- Universal Music Group Universal Music Group (Capital Markets Day 2024 materials) · 17 September 2024
“Note: All CAGRs in constant currency; slide has been updated to replace “ARPU Growth” by “Improved Monetization” for clarification purposes”
- Universal Music Group N.V. Reports Financial Results for the First Quarter Ended March 31, 2025 - UMG Universal Music Group N.V. · 29 April 2025
“Our focus on our key strategic initiatives positions us to achieve our mid-term financial objectives.”
- Universal Music Group N.V. Reports Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year ended December 31, 2025 - UMG Universal Music Group N.V. · 5 March 2026
“Recorded Music subscription revenue grew 5.6% year-over-year, or 8.6% in constant currency, and streaming revenue grew 1.5% year-over-year, or 4.7% in constant currency.”
Reasoning
At its September 2024 Capital Markets Day, UMG set medium-term targets through FY2028, including 8-10% subscription revenue CAGR in constant currency (E1, E2), and in April 2025 said it remained positioned to achieve its mid-term objectives (E3). UMG's FY2025 results report Recorded Music subscription revenue growth of 8.6% in constant currency, within that target range, while total streaming grew only 4.7% in constant currency, implying ad-supported streaming remained weaker (E4). The evidence does not show pre-Q2-2024 growth rates or prior targets, so a full recovery cannot be confirmed, but subscription growth recovering to target with one segment weak fits the mostly true criterion.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “Pershing Square believed Universal Music Group's underperformance in the latest quarter would prove short-term and said it did not change its view of UMG's medium and long-term growth prospects.” (said August 2024). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_b5575b52f9c8, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b5575b52f9c8
Claims without a verdict
- Unresolvable 135
- Not yet due 9
- Own records only 29
- Not researched 162
- Not checkable 431
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