Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
76 70 81 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
68 54 82 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Bill Ackman's claims
1 claim
| Verdict | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not yet due | Promise | 12 Aug 2026 | Pershing Square intends to deploy the substantial majority of the $2.5-3 billion of excess cash flow expected from Howard Hughes' real estate operations over the next three to five years into its insurance operations. Promise · 12 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
“We intend to deploy the substantial majority of the $2.5 billion to $3 billion of excess cash flow that we expect Howard Hughes' real estate operations to generate over the next three to five years towards its insurance operations.”
Bill Ackman, Pershing Square letter 12 August 2026 Pershing Square H1 2026 Letter To Shareholders (Seeking Alpha)
Pershing Square intends to deploy the substantial majority of the $2.5-3 billion of excess cash flow expected from Howard Hughes' real estate operations over the next three to five years into its insurance operations.
Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
deadline 2031 is after 2026-11-04
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “Pershing Square intends to deploy the substantial majority of the $2.5-3 billion of excess cash flow expected from Howard Hughes' real estate operations over the next three to five years into its insurance operations.” (said 12 August 2026). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_9ea6c790e3a9, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9ea6c790e3a9
Claims without a verdict
- Unresolvable 135
- Not yet due 9
- Own records only 29
- Not researched 162
- Not checkable 431
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