ClaimsPeople

Bill Ackman

Bill Ackman is a hedge fund manager and the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, which has a fund listed on Euronext Amsterdam.

865 claims collected, 272 researched, 99 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    76 70 81

    High confidence, 82 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2011 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 48 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    68 54 82

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2014 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 81 unresolvable. 8 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 6 unresolvable, 1 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Ackman's claims

158 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Factual 1 Oct 2026 Howard Hughes was created out of the bankruptcy of General Growth as a spinoff of its other assets. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 1 Oct 2026 In the interview, Bill Ackman said his high school yearbook epithet was "most verbose." Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Other
Mixed Factual 1 Oct 2026 PSUS holds a portfolio of Pershing Square's best ideas and trades at an 18% discount to cash. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 1 Oct 2026 The vast majority of insurance companies focus only on the liability side of the balance sheet. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 1 Oct 2026 General Growth emerged from Chapter 11 two years after Pershing Square's investment. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 1 Oct 2026 SpaceX is a near monopoly in low-cost space launch. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 1 Oct 2026 Howard Hughes Holdings has a market capitalisation of about $4 billion. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 1 Oct 2026 As of the interview, Pershing Square owns Microsoft, Meta and Amazon shares. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 1 Oct 2026 Pershing Square's most successful equity investment ever was General Growth Properties, bought while the company was going bankrupt. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved false Factual 1 Oct 2026 Ackman estimated, with heavy hedging, that the average tenure of an S&P 500 CEO is probably about 3 to 4 years. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 1 Oct 2026 Bill Ackman writes all his own posts and material himself. Factual · 1 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 12 Aug 2026 ICE, founded in 2000 by Jeff Sprecher, is a leading global exchange operator and financial data provider built through 25 years of organic growth and acquisitions. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 12 Aug 2026 PSH's stock currently trades at a 35% discount to NAV. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 12 Aug 2026 Over the last several quarters, revenue growth across all three of ICE's data subsegments has consistently accelerated. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 12 Aug 2026 QSR trades at 17 times earnings, a material discount to peers and to the speaker's view of intrinsic value. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square's portfolio companies trade at 19 times its estimate of current earnings per share. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square estimates ICE's more competitive lines, consolidated feeds and fixed income reference data, are only a single-digit percentage of FIDS segment revenue and a de minimis share of enterprise revenue. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 12 Aug 2026 U.S. mortgage origination volumes are still about 50% below long-term averages. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 12 Aug 2026 Brookfield Corporation trades at 14 times Pershing Square's earnings estimate. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 12 Aug 2026 ICE is the global benchmark for Brent crude futures with about 90% market share, with higher pricing power, growth and margins than externally cleared products. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 12 Aug 2026 S&P Global's Capital IQ represents less than 7% of the company's total revenue and an even smaller percentage of total profits. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 12 Aug 2026 Over the last five years, ICE's Exchanges segment grew revenue 8% and profits 10% annually, with margins expanding to 75%. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 12 Aug 2026 S&P Global Ratings' customers' estimated annual interest savings are roughly three times the one-time upfront fee on a new debt issuance. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 12 Aug 2026 Howard Hughes' acquisition of Vantage and recruitment of Marc and David underpin its transformation from a pure-play real-estate business into an insurance-focused holding company. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square recently made new investments in Visa, Mastercard, Netflix, S&P Global, Intercontinental Exchange and Alcon. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 12 Aug 2026 Over the prior two decades Pershing Square has built a library of hundreds of businesses that meet its core investment principles. Factual · 12 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 22 Mar 2026 Treasury's 2012 change to the Fannie and Freddie senior preferred stock terms was a unilateral amendment, not a negotiated resolution with the companies. Factual · 22 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 22 Mar 2026 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shareholders are not seeking a gift or handout from the government. Factual · 22 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 22 Mar 2026 The treatment of Fannie and Freddie in conservatorship explains why Silicon Valley Bank and other large bank failures since the GFC could not raise private capital and avoid government intervention or a forced sale to J.P. Morgan. Factual · 22 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 22 Mar 2026 The GFC bailout terms for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had a higher interest rate and substantially more warrant coverage than those of every other financial institution except AIG. Factual · 22 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 22 Mar 2026 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shareholders have not asked for an extra $25 billion to be returned to the two companies. Factual · 22 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 10 Mar 2026 On 2026-03-10 Pershing Square Inc. (PSI) filed to go public, along with Pershing Square USA, Ltd. (PSUS), a new closed-ended investment company managed by Pershing Square. Factual · 10 Mar 2026 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 10 Mar 2026 Streetwise is now available for sale as of 2026-03-10. Factual · 10 Mar 2026 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 8 Mar 2026 The mayor was not the target of the terrorists in the attack referred to in the post Ackman replied to. Factual · 8 Mar 2026 Other
Mixed Factual Aug 2024 PSCM's new independent directors include long-term investors in PSH and the Pershing Square funds as well as new investors in the management company. Factual · Aug 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual Aug 2024 There have been no material updates about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac since Pershing Square's 2023 Annual Report. Factual · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Aug 2024 Google is on track to spend nearly $50 billion in capital expenditures in 2024, a more than 50% increase over the prior year. Factual · Aug 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Factual Aug 2024 Howard Hughes has pre-sold 51% of inventory at The Launiu condominium tower in Ward Village, having launched sales in February 2024. Factual · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Aug 2024 Howard Hughes' average residential land price per acre reached an all-time high of $1.0 million in the most recent quarter (Q2 2024). Factual · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual Aug 2024 The Ritz-Carlton Residences in The Woodlands, Houston has pre-sold 65% of its available units, representing $313 million of future revenue. Factual · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual Aug 2024 CPKC's cost synergies are tracking ahead of plan, with savings from combining procurement and general and administrative functions. Factual · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Aug 2024 Burger King is outperforming McDonald's on a one-year basis and relative to pre-covid levels. Factual · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Aug 2024 Canadian Pacific's 2023 acquisition of Kansas City Southern established the only railroad with a direct route linking Canada, the United States and Mexico. Factual · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Aug 2024 Since restructuring away from open-end fund management in 2017, Pershing Square's investment team has allocated substantially all its time to investing. Factual · Aug 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2024 Pershing Square's hedging strategy has generated large profits that were generally reinvested in core holdings at lower valuations during market disruptions. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2024 Day One Investors multiplied their investment 22 times versus seven times for a zero-fee S&P 500 index fund. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2024 Pershing Square's NAV returns compounded at 25.3% over the last six calendar years, 1,320 bps per year above the S&P 500's total return. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2024 PSH's stock currently trades at a 26.3% discount to NAV. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2024 Day One Investors in Pershing Square grew their equity at a 16.5% compounded annual rate over 20 years versus 10.0% for the S&P 500. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2024 Pershing Square continues to maintain an energy-related hedge against a large rise in energy prices. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2024 SPARC has no underwriting fees, shareholder warrants or founder stock, and has 10 years to execute a deal. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 2024 Pershing Square has 40 employees. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 2024 Pershing Square has not made an activist investment in nearly eight years. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2024 Cumulative total NAV return since inception is 2,078% versus 592% for the S&P 500. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 4 Aug 2022 Discover was still providing payment services to MindGeek as of 4 August 2022, despite Visa and Mastercard suspending theirs. Factual · 4 Aug 2022 Other
Unresolvable Factual 2 Aug 2022 Visa CEO Al Kelly had not been willing to appear on camera to address the allegations as of 2 August 2022. Factual · 2 Aug 2022 Other
Resolved false Factual 2 Aug 2022 As of 2 August 2022, Visa had not responded publicly to the allegations about facilitating child trafficking on MindGeek/PornHub sites. Factual · 2 Aug 2022 Other
Mixed Factual 31 Jul 2022 The Pershing Square Foundation is not involved in this case but has supported organizations working to stop human trafficking and image-based abuse. Factual · 31 Jul 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 30 Jul 2022 Bill Ackman and his firm have no economic interest, long or short, in Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, Amex or any other payments company, processing company, bank or financial institution. Factual · 30 Jul 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 29 Jul 2022 Bond and stock markets rallied substantially after Powell said on Wednesday that Fed rates were at neutral (2.25–2.5%). Factual · 29 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 29 Jul 2022 The Big Four accounting firms are not directly exposed to gas or food inflation. Factual · 29 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 27 Jul 2022 Since the close on 14 June 2022, 2-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasury rates were down 36, 70 and 41 basis points respectively as of 27 July 2022. Factual · 27 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 14 Jul 2022 Ackman said that in response to the June 2022 CPI print, short-term fed funds futures moved upward, implying a peak fed funds rate of 3.68% by December 2022, then cuts to 2.9% by January 2024. Factual · 14 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 5 Jul 2022 There had been 309 mass shootings in the US year-to-date as of 5 July 2022, about 12 per week. Factual · 5 Jul 2022 Other
Resolved true Factual 4 Jul 2022 Interest rates declined dramatically over the two weeks before 4 July 2022. Factual · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 26 Jan 2022 To fund the Netflix purchase, Pershing Square unwound the substantial majority of its interest rate hedge over several days, generating proceeds of $1.25 billion. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square acquired more than 3.1 million shares of Netflix over several days from Friday, making it a top-20 shareholder. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 26 Jan 2022 Netflix's substantial stock price decline was further exacerbated by recent market volatility. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2022 Investors reacted negatively to Netflix's recent quarterly subscriber growth and management's short-term guidance, creating an opportunity to buy at an attractive valuation. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square's interest rate hedge notional size was reduced by 80%, its retained hedge term extended, and its dollar investment in hedges reduced by more than 90%. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square had never previously owned a stake in Netflix. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square began analyzing Netflix in connection with its Universal Music Group investment, before Netflix's stock price declined sharply the previous Friday. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 2022 Most of Pershing Square's portfolio companies use their free cash flow to repurchase their own shares. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2022 Pershing Square has always sought to have positive, constructive engagements with its portfolio companies and their boards and management teams. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2022 In 2021 Chipotle generated average restaurant sales of $2.6 million, exceeding the 2015 peak of $2.5 million. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2022 PSH's stock currently trades at a 33.9% discount to NAV. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2022 The 2022 swaptions have more than tripled in value from their original cost. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2022 Pershing Square's limited activist short selling, two high-profile engagements, generated enormous media attention. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2022 Universal Music Group is the world's leading music entertainment company. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2022 There is an unprecedented backlog in professional home improvement projects heading into 2022. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2022 Rail transportation is cheaper than trucking over longer distances. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 2022 Day One Investors multiplied their equity investment by 18 times versus six times for a zero-fee S&P 500 index fund. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 19 Aug 2021 The NYSE has offered to work closely with PSTH and the SEC to accelerate the necessary rule change for SPARC warrants. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 19 Aug 2021 The Sponsor Warrants restrict selling, hedging or transferring for three years after the initial business combination. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 19 Aug 2021 PSTH's ability to complete a transaction in the required time frame has been impaired by the lawsuit. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 19 Aug 2021 Robert Jackson served as an SEC Commissioner between January 2018 and February 2020. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 19 Aug 2021 Holding cash and government securities while seeking a business combination does not make PSTH or other SPACs illegal investment companies. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 19 Aug 2021 As of August 2021, PSTH has about 11 months remaining to enter into a letter of intent for its initial business combination. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 19 Aug 2021 Listing SPARC warrants on the NYSE requires an NYSE rule change subject to SEC approval, which is being pursued with the NYSE. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 19 Aug 2021 None of PSTH's directors nor its Sponsor has received or been promised any compensation of any kind. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 19 Aug 2021 Had the UMG transaction closed, the Pershing Square Funds would have invested $1.6 billion in PSTH units on the same terms as IPO investors. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 19 Aug 2021 The two law professors behind the lawsuit told the press their motivation was to reform the entire SPAC industry. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 19 Aug 2021 The abandoned PSTH/UMG deal is the only SPAC business combination known to the speaker where the sponsor would have received no additional consideration versus other shareholders. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 19 Aug 2021 The SPARC warrants will remove the two-year "shot clock" for a sponsor to complete a transaction. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 10 Dec 2020 Visa has suspended payments to Pornhub. Factual · 10 Dec 2020 Other
Mostly true Factual 17 Nov 2020 Once exposed to Covid, a person can infect and kill others. Factual · 17 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Factual 17 Nov 2020 As of mid-November 2020, Covid had infected 11.5 million Americans and killed 252,000, about 1 in 45 of those infected. Factual · 17 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Factual 17 Nov 2020 Face masks against Covid are available for 15 cents each. Factual · 17 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Factual 17 May 2018 Dawn Lepore joined the Pershing Square Advisory Board in the quarter referred to as "this quarter" in the statement made on 2018-05-17. Factual · 17 May 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 17 May 2018 HHC arranged third-party debt and preferred and common equity commitments reducing HHC's cash investment in the project to $49 million. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
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Bill Ackman

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Factual Economics and markets

“We created it out of the bankruptcy of General Growth.”

Bill Ackman, interviewee 1 October 2026 Transcript of Bill Ackman Interview: All-In Liquidity 2026 (Singju Post)

Howard Hughes was created out of the bankruptcy of General Growth as a spinoff of its other assets.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

TRUE: Howard Hughes Corporation was formed and spun off from General Growth Properties as part of GGP's Chapter 11 reorganization, taking assets outside GGP's core malls such as master-planned communities and development properties. Pershing Square's role in the plan supports Ackman's phrase 'we created it' but is not required. MOSTLY TRUE: it was spun off at GGP's emergence from bankruptcy, with a minor detail wrong, such as which assets it received. MOSTLY FALSE: it was spun off from GGP but not as part of the bankruptcy reorganization. FALSE: it was not created from GGP.

Evidence

  1. SEC.gov | HOME U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Form 8-K filed by The Howard Hughes Corporation) · 9 November 2010
    “On November 9, 2010, The Howard Hughes Corporation (the “Company”) was spun off from General Growth Properties, Inc. (“GGP”) in connection with a plan of reorganization filed by GGP and certain of its subsidiaries under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code”
  2. SEC.gov | HOME U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Form 8-K filed by The Howard Hughes Corporation) · 9 November 2010
    “In connection with the Separation, GGP transferred to the Company the assets and liabilities comprising the Company’s master planned communities and real estate development businesses.”
  3. News | General Growth, Split Into Two Companies, Emerges from Historic Bankruptcy CoStar News · 11 November 2010
    “General Growth Properties Inc. (NYSE: GGP) emerged from Chapter 11 restructuring this week, along with Howard Hughes Corp. (NYSE: HHC), a separate publicly traded company spun off by GGP consisting of the former company's portfolio of master-planned communities and other development opportunities.”

Reasoning

Howard Hughes Corporation's 8-K filing says the company was spun off from GGP on November 9, 2010, in connection with GGP's Chapter 11 plan of reorganization (E1). The same filing says GGP transferred its master planned communities and real estate development businesses to the new company (E2). A CoStar report from the time independently confirms that HHC was spun off as GGP emerged from Chapter 11, holding master-planned communities and other development opportunities (E3). That meets the TRUE criterion.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Howard Hughes was created out of the bankruptcy of General Growth as a spinoff of its other assets.” (said 1 October 2026). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_1fb3bb38aa00, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1fb3bb38aa00

Claims without a verdict

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