ClaimsPeople

Bill Ackman

Bill Ackman is a hedge fund manager and the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, which has a fund listed on Euronext Amsterdam.

865 claims collected, 272 researched, 99 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    76 70 81

    High confidence, 82 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2011 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 48 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    68 54 82

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2014 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 81 unresolvable. 8 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 6 unresolvable, 1 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Ackman's claims

103 claims · page 1 of 2

103 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Prediction 1 Oct 2026 Ackman said he thinks "we" can build a really profitable insurance company, starting at a very small scale. Prediction · 1 Oct 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square's portfolio's higher EPS growth and lower valuation than the S&P 500 should increase the likelihood its performance exceeds the S&P 500 over the long term. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The statement says "we believe" that neither of two concerns, the long-term impact of AI on ICE's two smaller segments and the competitive threat of perpetual futures to its Exchanges, is likely to impair ICE's earnings power or intrinsic value. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The FDA will likely approve Alcon's AURN001, with blockbuster potential beyond Alcon's commercial targets. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 If routing legislation were enacted, it would have a minimal impact on Visa and Mastercard. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The statement expresses a belief that these tailwinds should enable Microsoft to sustain its high-teens historical earnings growth over the long term. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 S&P Global's future earnings growth will be almost exclusively determined by its benchmark businesses rather than Market Intelligence. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The quote states an expectation that Alcon's operating margin, described as currently 20%, will rise to 25% or greater over the next several years. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 S&P Global Indices has a long runway for continued double-digit growth. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 S&P Global earnings are likely to compound in the low-to-mid teens, driving an annualized return in the mid-20s% if its valuation returns to an appropriate level. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square believes its portfolio companies will ultimately deliver strong EPS growth and a substantial increase in the valuations investors assign to them. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Ackman says "we are confident" that perpetual futures hold little if any appeal for institutional investors, who he says drive over about 95% of ICE's trading volume. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square believes Alcon's mid-term revenue growth target of 6%-8% remains credible. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Ackman stated that "we expect" Meta to grow earnings at a rate of 20% or more over the next few years, following 2026's elevated investment. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Restaurant Brands (QSR) high-single-digit operating profit growth, leverage and buybacks should deliver a mid-teens total return. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Agentic commerce is more likely to expand the payments ecosystem than to erode the card networks' moats. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Bill Ackman stated a belief that a favorable macro backdrop and powerful secular tailwinds should enable ICE to achieve low-to-mid-teens earnings growth, which, combined with a multiple re-rating toward year-ago levels, creates the potential for an annualized stock return in the mid-20s%. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Bill Ackman's side said that, if they are correct that Vantage can earn significantly higher returns on capital than HHH's historical real estate business by putting HHH's excess real estate cash flows into insurance, they expect Vantage to become the substantial majority of HHH's business over the coming years. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square estimates that its projected investment returns will be higher than returns implied by its portfolio companies' underlying EPS growth. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square says its current holdings trade at discounted multiples significantly below where it expects them to trade over the intermediate and long term. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The Trump administration will have ample time to deliver on its Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac promises, and the shares will be worth many times today's prices once it does. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square estimates that its portfolio companies have an average prospective annual EPS growth rate of about 20% over the next three to five years. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The letter states an expectation that each of its current portfolio companies will grow EPS at an annual rate of 15% or more over the next three to five years, with about half expected to achieve EPS growth of 20% or more over the same period. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 Pershing Square expects its six new investments to be material contributors to its future investment performance. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The statement says that AI may eventually exert price or volume pressure on a relatively small percentage of S&P Global's Market Intelligence revenues, and expresses the belief that this will be offset by growing demand for high-quality proprietary and curated data. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 12 Aug 2026 The statement says the speaker's side believes Amazon can compound earnings at a 20%-plus rate longer term. Prediction · 12 Aug 2026 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 30 Mar 2026 The war, which Ackman described as one of the most one-sided in history, will end well for the U.S. and the world. Prediction · 30 Mar 2026 Other global risks
Mixed Prediction Aug 2024 Howard Hughes' land sales segment is on track to generate nearly $300 million in full-year 2024 profits. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction Aug 2024 Chipotle is on track to open approximately 300 new restaurants in 2024 and expects to more than double its store base to at least 7,000 North American locations over time. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction Aug 2024 Chipotle's limited-time Smoked Brisket launch starting in September 2024 should further improve sales trends. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction Aug 2024 CPKC expects to exit 2024 with C$800 million of new business from revenue synergies. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Aug 2024 Hilton should realize mid-to-high-teens compounded earnings growth for the foreseeable future. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Aug 2024 Pershing Square said its core portfolio companies continue to generate strong business performance, which it expects over time to be reflected in their long-term stock price performance. Prediction · Aug 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction Aug 2024 Bill Ackman's statement said "we believe" each of the company's (QSR's) brands will benefit in a slower economic environment with consumers trading down. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Aug 2024 The statement expresses the belief that CPKC's network and management team are well positioned to deliver continued synergy wins and excellent operations, which it says should generate strong double-digit earnings growth in the coming years. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Aug 2024 Bill Ackman stated a belief that as QSR returns to its historic mid-single-digit unit growth and delivers consistent performance at each of its brands, its share price will more accurately reflect its improving fundamentals. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction Aug 2024 Pershing Square believed Universal Music Group's underperformance in the latest quarter would prove short-term and said it did not change its view of UMG's medium and long-term growth prospects. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Aug 2024 Bill Ackman said that "we" expect the Chipotle team built by Brian will not lose a step following Brian's departure. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Aug 2024 UMG's share price is likely to increase significantly from current levels as investors better understand its path to higher revenue growth and regain confidence in the industry. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Aug 2024 By reducing its performance fees, PSH will generate higher net returns, report lower fees on its KID disclosure, and become a more attractive investment for asset managers and other investors. Prediction · Aug 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction Aug 2024 The speakers said they believed that even in a scenario where Google loses its appeal, the company is well-positioned to navigate a range of likely potential remedy outcomes. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2024 Bill Ackman, writing as "we", said he expects Restaurant Brands' Executive Chairman Patrick Doyle and CEO Josh Kobza to deliver an even better outcome at RBI than Doyle achieved at Domino's. Prediction · 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2024 Pershing Square's asymmetric investments could become an even more important contributor to returns over time. Prediction · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2024 Reducing PSH's performance fees will produce higher returns, lower fees on the KID document and make PSH a more attractive investment. Prediction · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 26 Jan 2022 Netflix's improving free cash flow profile should allow continued investment in growth and return of cash to shareholders. Prediction · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square said it believes its portfolio companies will continue to compound their intrinsic values at high rates over the long term, while noting it does not know what the stock market will do over the next day, month or year or two. Prediction · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 26 Jan 2022 Netflix's economies of scale and industry-leading content should continue to drive future growth and widen its competitive moat. Prediction · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The statement, written as "we believe", predicts that the attributes it describes (a legal regime where the rule of law is generally respected, limited corruption, a world class military and defense, and a corporate and capital markets environment where capitalism can flourish) will increase in importance to investors in light of recent events. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The statement said "we believe" that Hilton would continue to grow its market share at an attractive rate over time. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Bill Ackman said "we believe" that all of "our portfolio companies" will generate long-term durable growth, citing their market positions, free cash flow generation, returns on capital, pricing power and balance sheets. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Pershing Square said in 2022 that it expected that, with continued strong performance, PSH's discount to NAV would narrow and its NAV and market value returns would converge. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2022 Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The subject said they believe home improvement industry demand is likely to normalize at a higher baseline than before the pandemic. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Pershing Square said it believes successful completion and integration of the KCS acquisition will lead to attractive investment returns relative to its purchase price for CP. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Bill Ackman said "we expect" the railroad industry's share of the freight transportation market to meaningfully improve from current levels. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The statement attributed to Bill Ackman said "we" expect CP's leadership team to make significant operational improvements at KCS. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Lowe's is headed for another year of double-digit earnings-per-share growth in 2022. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2022 Ackman stated an estimate ("we estimate") that over the next decade Netflix can achieve double-digit annual revenue growth, significantly expand its operating profit margins, and grow earnings per share by more than 20% per year. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The speaker said "we" expect each of the holdings listed just before the quote (including Restaurant Brands, Domino's, Lowe's, Howard Hughes, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Hilton and Canadian Pacific) to grow revenues and profitability over the long term. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Risk premiums should continue to rise. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Pershing Square said it believes the SPARC structure will, over time, enable it to own large stakes in high quality, newly public businesses that meet its investment criteria. Prediction · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Pershing Square expects its portfolio companies to continue to compound their intrinsic values at even higher rates than before due to their currently reduced valuations. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2022 UMG does not need to acquire catalogs to continue its strong growth and achieve its medium-term guidance from its last Capital Markets Day. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Speaking as "we", the statement said they believe CP's acquisition of KCS will be transformational for CP's rail network. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 UMG can grow revenues at an annual rate approaching double digits for more than a decade. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The current geopolitical environment has increased the probability of significant North American onshoring and energy investment, which would strengthen CP's volume growth over time. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2022 Chipotle is on track to achieve management's goal of more than $3 million in average restaurant sales. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Pershing Square believes the businesses it owns have substantial pricing power that will enable them to cover the costs of inflation. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Deglobalization appears to be coming to the capital markets, much as the world is deglobalizing. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 19 Aug 2021 The time needed to resolve the lawsuit will increase the likelihood that the Sponsor and Director Warrants expire worthless. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 19 Aug 2021 A successful claim in the lawsuit would imply that every SPAC may also be an illegal investment company. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 19 Aug 2021 The existence of the litigation may deter potential merger partners from working with PSTH until the lawsuit is resolved. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 19 Aug 2021 The lawsuit against PSTH is unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 19 Aug 2021 Ackman stated that "we expect" all PSTH shareholders would be highly supportive of the rule change needed to replace the Distributable Warrants with SPARC Distributable Warrants. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 19 Aug 2021 The Sponsor Warrants will likely be worthless if PSTH does not complete a high-quality transaction on favorable terms. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 19 Aug 2021 PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Prediction 16 Nov 2020 Widespread Covid vaccinations that will end the pandemic in the US are only a few months away from November 2020. Prediction · 16 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Prediction 16 Nov 2020 If the US does not take Covid seriously, another 500,000 Americans will die of Covid. Prediction · 16 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Jan 2019 If Congress members went unpaid during shutdowns like federal workers, the US would no longer have government shutdowns. Prediction · 25 Jan 2019 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Prediction 17 May 2018 Absent a further policy change from Treasury and FHFA, the subject said he expected Freddie Mac to resume dividend payments to the Treasury in the third quarter of 2018. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Pratt & Whitney's profit margins, currently depressed by losses from the GTF program ramp-up, should expand meaningfully as the GTF engine begins generating aftermarket revenues. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Pershing Square expected PSH's discount to NAV to narrow given reduced free float, a substantially increased investment by the investment manager and improved investment performance. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 HHC's share of stabilized cash flow from the project is estimated to be over $19 million. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 17 May 2018 These factors should enable ADP to achieve at least about $6.25 of EPS in fiscal year 2020, nearly 25% above management's September 2017 guidance. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Pershing Square said it believed Tim Hortons' recent same-store sales slowdown would ultimately prove temporary, and expected the "Winning Together" plan and recent leadership changes to enable a return to historical growth rates. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Mondelez's valuation gap should close as it reports differentiated results over the coming quarters. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Ackman said that, because Congress had not put forth a viable plan since conservatorship began, "we believe" it was increasingly likely that the administration and FHFA would soon take the lead on housing finance reform. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Mondelez should continue to deliver sustained double-digit EPS growth even in the current environment. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 17 May 2018 With 25% of entitlements utilized, Ward Village will offer substantial continued value creation for Howard Hughes over the next decade. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 If housing finance reform is successful, FNMA and FMCC common and preferred stock will likely be worth multiples of their current share prices. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 Nike's historical high-single-digit annual revenue growth rate is likely to continue. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 Pershing Square expected continued acceleration in revenue growth, double-digit EPS growth and clarity on Mr. Van de Put's strategy to cause MDLZ's valuation to rise to levels approaching intrinsic value. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 If PAH shares traded at a valuation comparable to competitors and the company achieved analyst earnings estimates, they would be worth more than $19, nearly 75% above current levels. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 Over time, QSR should be able to successfully execute additional value-creating acquisitions. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 ADP's delivery on its proxy-contest commitments, together with tax reform and rising interest rates, will drive a significant increase in ADP's earnings. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 If ADP's Employer Services growth rises to ~7%+ and margins to 35% or greater, ADP would earn ~$10 of EPS by FY2022, more than double current earnings. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2016 Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 At current asset inflow rates, index funds will effectively control Corporate America and many foreign countries' corporations before long. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Bill Ackman said Paul was ready to pursue his own venture and that he expected him to be a great success. Prediction · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 5 May 2014 Banks are not likely to step back in and provide meaningful mortgage investment. Prediction · 5 May 2014 Economics and markets
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Bill Ackman

Open its page

Prediction Economics and markets

“And I think we can build a really profitable insurance company.”

Bill Ackman, interview answer 1 October 2026 Transcript of Bill Ackman Interview: All-In Liquidity 2026 (Singju Post)

Ackman said he thinks "we" can build a really profitable insurance company, starting at a very small scale.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Vague prediction with no horizon and undefined 'really profitable'.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Ackman said he thinks "we" can build a really profitable insurance company, starting at a very small scale.” (said 1 October 2026). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_d72f14c544d6, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d72f14c544d6

Claims without a verdict

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