Bill Ackman: checked claims

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

Factual claims

Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

76 70 81

High confidence, 82 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2011 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

Not scored: 48 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

See the factual claims
Predictions

Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

68 54 82

Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2014 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

Not scored: 81 unresolvable. 8 more fall due later.
Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

See the predictions
Promises

Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

Not scored: 6 unresolvable, 1 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Ackman's claims

865 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Resolved true	Factual	2018	HHC CEO David Weinreb and President Grant Herlitz recently entered into 10-year employment agreements. Factual · 2018	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	2018	ADP's delivery on its proxy-contest commitments, together with tax reform and rising interest rates, will drive a significant increase in ADP's earnings. Prediction · 2018	Economics and markets
Not researched	Factual	2018	The discount to NAV at which PSH shares trade widened recently, adding to the effect of underperformance on PSH investors. Factual · 2018	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Not checkable	2018	there is almost no supply of shares for sale from nonaffiliates of the company. Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable	Not checkable	2018	Positive secular trends in health & wellness and casualization; Not checkable · 2018
Unresolvable	Factual	2018	Pershing Square owned Nike for four months, recently sold the position, and Nike's stock rose 34% during that period. Factual · 2018	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	2018	PSH exited its investments in Air Products, Hilton, Nomad Foods, an undisclosed position and Valeant during 2017. Factual · 2018	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Not checkable	2018	This structure created a more attractive risk-reward ratio while minimizing the risks associated with short selling, which became more… Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable	Not checkable	2018	ADP is a simple, predictable, free-cash-flow generative business that has underperformed its potential. Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable	Not checkable	2018	As one of the world’s most iconic brands and the market leader in the athletic footwear and apparel industry, NKE fits squarely in that… Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable	Not checkable	2018	2017 should have been a stronger year for Pershing Square. Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable	Not checkable	2018	While none of the above factors guarantee a good investment outcome, they substantially increase the probability of our success. Not checkable · 2018
Not researched	Factual	2018	Pershing Square has exited its Herbalife short investment. Factual · 2018	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Not checkable	2018	That said, we are always willing to redeploy capital if an investment appreciates to a level that no longer offers sufficient returns… Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable	Not checkable	2018	We found S&P attractive because of the annuity-like characteristics of its business combined with pricing power, strong secular growth and… Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable	Not checkable	2018	Overall, strong revenue growth at S&P has been supported by pricing power and growth of financial markets along with the potential for… Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable	Not checkable	2018	With recent changes, we believe Chipotle represents a highly compelling turnaround opportunity. Not checkable · 2018
Unresolvable	Prediction	2018	If ADP's Employer Services growth rises to ~7%+ and margins to 35% or greater, ADP would earn ~$10 of EPS by FY2022, more than double current earnings. Prediction · 2018	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Not checkable	28 Jan 2016	I have often stated, Not checkable · 28 Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	28 Jan 2016	This confidence, however, has to be carefully balanced by the humility to recognize when you are wrong. Not checkable · 28 Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	28 Jan 2016	Their focus on keeping fees low makes these operations inherently low-cost and laser focused on continued cost control rather than… Not checkable · 28 Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	28 Jan 2016	that in order to be a great investor one needs to first have the confidence to invest without perfect information at a time when others are… Not checkable · 28 Jan 2016
Unresolvable	Factual	28 Jan 2016	In 2015 there was no financial crisis, except perhaps in the energy, commodity and currency markets. Factual · 28 Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Not checkable	28 Jan 2016	We did make some important mistakes, Not checkable · 28 Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	28 Jan 2016	The vulnerability of a company to an overall market decline, a short seller attack, or negative headlines is highly correlated with the… Not checkable · 28 Jan 2016
Own records only	Factual	28 Jan 2016	Pershing Square missed the opportunity in 2015 to trim or sell certain positions that approached its estimate of intrinsic value. Factual · 28 Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Not checkable	28 Jan 2016	We do not believe that our investment performance in 2015 was primarily due to unforced errors, but rather due mostly to the market’s… Not checkable · 28 Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	28 Jan 2016	We recognize that this is a bit like a property casualty company saying, ‘Except for Hurricane Sandy this quarter, losses in our portfolio… Not checkable · 28 Jan 2016
Not researched	Factual	Jan 2016	Pershing Square generally does not use margin leverage in its investment strategy. Factual · Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	Many of the investment opportunities we have identified over time have been created by the fact that the market appears to value companies… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Mostly true	Factual	Jan 2016	Even the largest index funds have only about 20 people (one per ~1,000 companies) in their governance departments. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	The low market valuation of, and our influence over, our portfolio companies give us confidence about our future performance. Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	Other than by generating cash from selling investments or by raising outside capital, short positions and hedges are the only way to… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	we should have avoided becoming restricted to preserve trading flexibility, or alternatively, we should have made a smaller initial… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	Today, I believe we have the best and most seasoned investment team since the inception of the firm. Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	while we believed Mondelez was trading at a significant discount to intrinsic value Not checkable · Jan 2016
Unresolvable	Factual	Jan 2016	Pershing Square bought additional Platform Specialty Products stock at $25 per share to help the company finance an acquisition. Factual · Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	As a result, when members of the team have reached a stage where they want to manage their own portfolios, they have no choice but to leave… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	recent market conditions have created perhaps the richest universe of new opportunities for us to consider in recent years. Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	Imagine having to read 20,000 proxy statements which arrive in February and March and having to vote them by May Not checkable · Jan 2016
Own records only	Factual	Jan 2016	In 2015 Pershing Square missed opportunities to trim or sell positions that approached its estimate of intrinsic value. Factual · Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	Jan 2016	Pershing Square's currency puts have not served as a useful hedge against declines in its portfolio, which fell more than expected given limited China and oil exposure. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Own records only	Factual	Jan 2016	As of early 2016 Pershing Square had made only a modest profit on its yuan and Saudi Riyal hedge investments. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	there is no opportunity for a more senior member of the team to manage his own portfolio while being at Pershing Square until I step aside… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	We select investments based on business quality, discount to intrinsic value, and catalysts to unlock value, but not principally based on… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	We believe that “platform value” is real, but, as we have been painfully reminded, it is a much more ephemeral form of value than… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	we always seek to optimize the risk/return profile of the portfolio by changing the weightings of existing holdings and comparing portfolio… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	In retrospect, this was a very costly mistake. Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not researched	Factual	Jan 2016	At year-end 2015 Pershing Square reduced its Mondelez stake by selling forward contracts on 15 million shares at an average price of about $44 per share, leaving about 105 million shares in stock and derivatives. Factual · Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	Jan 2016	Pershing Square has had limited turnover on its investment team and throughout the firm since its inception. Factual · Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	Jan 2016	Pershing Square has never attempted to hedge short-term market movements but has sought inexpensive hedges against the risk of dramatic market declines. Factual · Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Own records only	Factual	Jan 2016	Pershing Square continues to hold its yuan and Saudi Riyal currency put investments as of early 2016. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	Jan 2016	Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street often cumulatively own 12%, and as much as 20%, of nearly every public company. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	We do not believe that our investment performance in 2015 was primarily due to unforced errors, but rather due mostly to the market’s… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not researched	Factual	Jan 2016	Index fund managers are compensated for growing assets under management rather than for investment performance. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	But their massive declines in value, in our view substantially more than can be accounted for due to fundamental issues in their respective… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not researched	Factual	Jan 2016	None of the Pershing Square portfolio companies that declined sharply is in any of the important market indexes. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Own records only	Factual	Jan 2016	Early in 2015 Pershing Square believed the Chinese stock market was in bubble territory but found the cost of buying puts on it prohibitive. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Promise	Jan 2016	Pershing Square expects to add at least one new investment to its portfolio in the next few months after January 2016. Promise · Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	Jan 2016	Two days after Pershing Square began building its yuan position, China did a 2% surprise devaluation that substantially increased the cost of the options it had intended to keep buying. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Resolved false	Prediction	Jan 2016	Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value. Prediction · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Own records only	Factual	Jan 2016	Pershing Square's biggest valuation error was assigning too much value to 'platform value' in certain holdings. Factual · Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	We have had the benefit of a “following” of investors who track and own many of our holdings. Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	We both thought our arrangement could last three to five years and possibly more if things worked out. Not checkable · Jan 2016
Mostly true	Factual	Jan 2016	China and Saudi Arabia have continued to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to defend their currency pegs. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	We continue to be highly optimistic about the potential for Mondelez as it improves its operational efficiency and continues to grow while… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	it is rare for companies to trade at material discounts to intrinsic value for extended periods. Not checkable · Jan 2016
Unresolvable	Prediction	Jan 2016	At current asset inflow rates, index funds will effectively control Corporate America and many foreign countries' corporations before long. Prediction · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	As an investor with substantial influence over the companies we own, we can be a catalyst to unlock, enhance, and protect their value. Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	The market’s short-term valuation approach coupled with the technical factors present in non-index supported companies can lead to… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Own records only	Factual	Jan 2016	Because credit default swaps were an unattractive hedge, Pershing Square looked for other instruments to protect against Black Swan-type risks. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Not researched	Factual	Jan 2016	In 2015 Berkshire Hathaway underperformed the S&P 500 index by more than 1,300 basis points. Factual · Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	The value of a business is determined by the present value of the cash it generates over its lifetime, not based on what next year’s… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	We have multiple attractive new opportunities to consider, competing for internal human and capital resources. Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	Humility and skepticism will help get us there. Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	the best hedges are investments that you would make even if there were no hedging benefit. Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	We believe that these exaggerated stock price movements represent a short-term opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate additional… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	While we would not yet describe the current phenomenon as an index fund bubble, it shares similar characteristics with other market bubbles. Not checkable · Jan 2016
Mostly true	Factual	Jan 2016	Pershing Square largely abandoned its strategy of shorting the credit of highly rated, highly leveraged companies as a hedge in 2009. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Not researched	Factual	Jan 2016	The Chinese yuan and Saudi Riyal are pegged to the U.S. dollar, which reduced volatility and the cost of put options on them. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Not researched	Factual	Jan 2016	The most popular stock indexes are market-cap weighted. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	We believe that it is axiomatic that while capital flows will drive market values in the short term, valuations will drive market values… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	we believe that our portfolio is trading at the largest discount to intrinsic value in its 12-year history, other than perhaps during March… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	We believe that this has reduced Canadian Pacific’s intrinsic value by perhaps 10% or so Not checkable · Jan 2016
Own records only	Factual	Jan 2016	Pershing Square started slowly with Paul Hilal because his prior focus was technology and the firm had never made a technology investment. Factual · Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Factual	Jan 2016	Pershing Square purchased puts on the Saudi Riyal to hedge against a continued decline in energy prices. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	it would have been prudent to sell a portion of our investment. Not checkable · Jan 2016
Own records only	Factual	Jan 2016	Pershing Square continued building its yuan position by buying slightly more out-of-the-money puts and selling further out-of-the-money puts. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	While the first year’s cash flows in a discounted cash flow valuation carry the most weight in the calculation, years two through 20 and… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not researched	Factual	Jan 2016	In 2007 and 2008 Pershing Square benefited from inexpensive hedges and investments shorting the credit of highly rated, highly leveraged companies. Factual · Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	we expect to remain a substantial, long-term holder. Not checkable · Jan 2016
Not researched	Factual	Jan 2016	Courts have often deemed shareholders to be in control of a corporation with as little as 20% ownership. Factual · Jan 2016	Philosophy, ethics and society
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	Paul is perhaps best known internally for his extremely deep research into companies and industries which have enabled us to broaden our… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Own records only	Factual	Jan 2016	Ackman said that when the company's stock rose to the mid-$200s per share "this summer", "we" did not sell, believing it probable that the company would complete additional transactions that would meaningfully increase intrinsic value. Factual · Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	This was a serious corporate governance failure in our view. Not checkable · Jan 2016
Unresolvable	Factual	Jan 2016	In summer 2015 Pershing Square built large notional short positions in the Chinese yuan through puts and put spreads. Factual · Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	They are inherently momentum investors, forced to buy more as stock prices rise, magnifying the risk of overvaluation of the index… Not checkable · Jan 2016
Unresolvable	Prediction	Jan 2016	Bill Ackman said Paul was ready to pursue his own venture and that he expected him to be a great success. Prediction · Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Not researched	Factual	Jan 2016	Since the first fund's inception in January 2004, the Pershing Square funds have outperformed the S&P 500 by an average of about 1,000 basis points per annum. Factual · Jan 2016	Their own work or organisation
Not checkable	Not checkable	Jan 2016	Large passive ownership of Corporate America by index funds risks a similar outcome without the counterbalancing force of large active… Not checkable · Jan 2016

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Bill Ackman

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Factual Economics and markets

“HHC has superb management led by David Weinreb and Grant Herlitz, HHC’s CEO and President, who recently entered into 10-year employment agreements.”

Bill Ackman, letter to PSH shareholders 2018 Annual Report Year Ended December 31, 2017 - Letter (Pershing Square Holdings)

HHC CEO David Weinreb and President Grant Herlitz recently entered into 10-year employment agreements.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of the 2018 statement date. True if SEC filings (8-K or proxy) show that HHC's CEO David Weinreb and President Grant Herlitz each entered into employment agreements with a roughly 10-year term, signed shortly before the statement (e.g. in 2017–2018), and both held those titles. Mostly true if both agreements existed and were recent but the term was slightly different (e.g. 9–11 years, or ~10 years to a stated end date), or titles differed in a minor way. Mixed if only one of the two entered such a 10-year agreement. Mostly false if agreements were signed but with substantially shorter terms or were not recent. False if neither executive entered into a long-term employment agreement around that time.

Evidence

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) Q3 FY2017 Earnings Call Transcript - November 7, 2017 roic.ai · 7 November 2017
“As you know, David Weinreb represented into a new employment agreement with the company for another 10 years as our CEO.”
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) Q3 FY2017 Earnings Call Transcript - November 7, 2017 roic.ai · 7 November 2017
“Also, as we disclosed on October 5, the company entered into a new employment agreement with our President, Grant Herlitz for Chairman of 10 years.”
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) Q3 FY2017 Earnings Call Transcript - November 7, 2017 roic.ai · 7 November 2017
“With me today are David Weinreb, Chief Executive Officer; Grant Herlitz, President; David O'Reilly, Chief Financial Officer; and Peter Riley, General Counsel.”

Reasoning

In HHC's Q3 2017 earnings call on November 7, 2017, the company said CEO David Weinreb had entered into a new employment agreement for another 10 years as CEO (E1). On the same call it said that on October 5 it had disclosed a new 10-year employment agreement with President Grant Herlitz (E2). The call introduction confirms that Weinreb was CEO and Herlitz was President at the time (E3). The evidence is a call transcript rather than the 8-K or proxy filings the criteria name, and its wording is garbled in places. Even so, it shows that both executives signed roughly 10-year agreements in late 2017, shortly before the 2018 statement.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “HHC CEO David Weinreb and President Grant Herlitz recently entered into 10-year employment agreements.” (said 2018). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_c2da44242439, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c2da44242439

Claims without a verdict

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