ClaimsPeople

Bill Ackman

Bill Ackman is a hedge fund manager and the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, which has a fund listed on Euronext Amsterdam.

865 claims collected, 272 researched, 99 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    76 70 81

    High confidence, 82 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2011 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 48 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    68 54 82

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2014 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 81 unresolvable. 8 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 6 unresolvable, 1 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Ackman's claims

865 claims · page 7 of 9

865 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not researched Factual 17 May 2018 Pershing Square exited its Herbalife and Nike positions during the first quarter of 2018. Factual · 17 May 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 Steve has been a brilliant advisor and partner to Pershing Square, and we look forward to continuing to benefit from his wise counsel. Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 PSH has made significant progress since the end of the first quarter. Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Pershing Square expected PSH's discount to NAV to narrow given reduced free float, a substantially increased investment by the investment manager and improved investment performance. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 The Seaport is not just a real estate asset that will generate rental income, but an operating business that will have sustained… Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 HHC's share of stabilized cash flow from the project is estimated to be over $19 million. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 17 May 2018 The existing backlog of commercial aircraft orders is nearly a decade long at current production levels. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 17 May 2018 These factors should enable ADP to achieve at least about $6.25 of EPS in fiscal year 2020, nearly 25% above management's September 2017 guidance. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 We believe some analysts and investors were confused by the change as HHC’s stock declined despite strong demonstrated value creation… Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not researched Factual 17 May 2018 Mondelez's North America sales, under 25% of company sales, declined 1.8% in Q1 2018, driven by weak gum, retailer destocking and poor supply chain execution. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 17 May 2018 220 basis points of PSH's NAV increase since the end of Q1 2018 came from accretion from the company tender offer. Factual · 17 May 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 As each of these businesses has materially different capital requirements, competitive characteristics, and investor constituencies, we… Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 the per-share intrinsic value of each entity continues to grow along with their core businesses. Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Resolved true Factual 17 May 2018 HHC arranged third-party debt and preferred and common equity commitments reducing HHC's cash investment in the project to $49 million. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Pershing Square said it believed Tim Hortons' recent same-store sales slowdown would ultimately prove temporary, and expected the "Winning Together" plan and recent leadership changes to enable a return to historical growth rates. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 We continue to believe that Fannie and Freddie offer a highly attractive potential reward relative to risk for the patient investor… Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Mondelez's valuation gap should close as it reports differentiated results over the coming quarters. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Ackman said that, because Congress had not put forth a viable plan since conservatorship began, "we believe" it was increasingly likely that the administration and FHFA would soon take the lead on housing finance reform. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Other
Resolved true Factual 17 May 2018 The total estimated cost of Howard Hughes' 110 North Wacker project is $761 million, with an estimated 7.9% unlevered yield on cost. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 17 May 2018 Restaurant Brands (QSR) trades at about 19 times Pershing Square's estimate of 2018 free cash flow. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 While 45 days is much too short a period to judge investment performance for a long-term strategy, we believe recent progress is reflective… Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Unresolvable Factual 17 May 2018 Pershing Square estimates more than 70% of Otis' profits come from its service contracts. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 We are working diligently to do just that. Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 While increasing the amount of capital each entity is allowed to hold from zero to $3 billion was a step in the right direction, current… Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Mostly true Factual 17 May 2018 Howard Hughes Corp adopted a new revenue recognition standard in Q1 2018 that significantly reduced GAAP revenue and earnings but not intrinsic value or cash flows. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 members of the management team of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. and affiliates may acquire additional shares of PSH in open… Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not researched Factual 17 May 2018 Pershing Square Holdings' NAV per share rose 9.4% from the end of Q1 2018 to mid-May 2018, versus 2.9% for the S&P 500. Factual · 17 May 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Mondelez should continue to deliver sustained double-digit EPS growth even in the current environment. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 17 May 2018 MDLZ trades at about 15.5 times forward earnings, a trough valuation since the October 2012 Kraft Foods spin-off and a 25% discount to its average multiple since then. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 17 May 2018 Consensus analyst estimates for ADP's 2020 EPS were $5.63 per share, which the statement described as 10% below its minimum base estimate of about $6.25. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 17 May 2018 Retail sales of Mondelez's core cookie and cracker brands, over 80% of its North America sales, grew 2.5% in the quarter. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 While NAV is a reasonable proxy for intrinsic value, we remain hopeful not only to reduce the discount to NAV, but also to regain our track… Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 HHC’s intrinsic value, which we believe is substantially greater than the current share price. Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 Despite posting results that were in-line with or better than those of its key global and snack-focused peers in the quarter, Mondelez… Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Mostly true Factual 17 May 2018 On Platform's earnings call, management reiterated it is on track to separate its two businesses in the second half of 2018. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 This valuation is significantly below our estimate of the company’s underlying value based on the overall quality and future earnings… Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not researched Factual 17 May 2018 United Technologies is a market-leading provider of aerospace systems and engines for commercial, military and business aircraft. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 17 May 2018 With 25% of entitlements utilized, Ward Village will offer substantial continued value creation for Howard Hughes over the next decade. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 This is an attractive expected return from an amenity principally designed to increase the value of Downtown Summerlin and the surrounding… Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Unresolvable Factual 17 May 2018 United Technologies trades at about 16 times Pershing Square's estimate of 2018 earnings, pro forma for the Rockwell Collins acquisition. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 17 May 2018 PSH completed a $300 million company tender that reduced public shares outstanding by 9.5% at a 20.5% discount to NAV. Factual · 17 May 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 we believe that investors are wrongly penalizing MDLZ for the significant challenges facing more US-focused, center-of-plate packaged food… Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 We attribute this decline to investor frustration at the lack of progress on housing finance reform efforts in Congress, which seem to have… Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 We believe that ADP is at an opportune moment in its history to more holistically assess its longterm structural potential, and articulate… Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not researched Factual 17 May 2018 PSH's 4.99% ownership limit on its shares has been removed. Factual · 17 May 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 We have had a constructive engagement with UTX management who appear focused on unlocking shareholder value. Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 You should view these potential purchases (when consummated) as a further indication of management’s commitment to the success of PSH. Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 The large supply of sellers of PSH has depressed the stock’s current valuation. Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 Over time, I intend to increase my exposure to the Pershing Square strategy as I generate liquidity from other sources. Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 17 May 2018 We believe the revised forecast is an early indication of potential larger improvements to come. Not checkable · 17 May 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 Strong pricing power due to product innovation and marketing; and Not checkable · 2018
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 If housing finance reform is successful, FNMA and FMCC common and preferred stock will likely be worth multiples of their current share prices. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 Despite its significant share price appreciation in 2017, we believe that QSR remains an attractive investment opportunity as it is… Not checkable · 2018
Not researched Factual 2018 Athletic footwear accounts for about 67% of Nike's revenue. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 A significant margin opportunity due to new manufacturing processes and rapid growth in distribution channels with more favorable economics. Not checkable · 2018
Not researched Factual 2018 Except for Valeant, all positions PSH exited in 2017 generated gains for PSH. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2018 Nike's emerging markets comprise about 30% of its revenue. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2018 Pershing Square restructured its Herbalife short position into put options to limit downside exposure, as discussed in its Q3 2017 investor letter. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 it is not surprising that the shares have continued to increase substantially in price without regard to fundamental value Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 NKE is a classic Pershing Square-style investment as it is a high quality business that we expect can compound long-term earnings at a high… Not checkable · 2018
Mostly true Factual 2018 Bill Ackman wrote that, as the largest investor in the Pershing Square funds, he and the other members of the Pershing Square team had experienced the funds' recent underperformance first hand. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 2018 PSH shares were trading at approximately a 23% discount to NAV at the time of the letter. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 Nike's historical high-single-digit annual revenue growth rate is likely to continue. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 2018 Herbalife's stock price rose during 2017, driven by a large buyback and an August 2017 self-tender that substantially reduced its share count and free float, and HLF hurt PSH's 2017 performance. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 I and the other members of the PSCM management team believe that PSH and our current portfolio are substantially undervalued. Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 We are thrilled that he has joined CMG as CEO at this pivotal time and believe that he is the right leader to reinvigorate the company and… Not checkable · 2018
Not researched Factual 2018 The credit ratings industry is highly consolidated, with S&P and Moody's making up the substantial majority of the market, and has high barriers to entry. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 Pershing Square expected continued acceleration in revenue growth, double-digit EPS growth and clarity on Mr. Van de Put's strategy to cause MDLZ's valuation to rise to levels approaching intrinsic value. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 While the overall record is satisfactory for early investors, it has been very disappointing for PSH investors who invested in recent years. Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 The credit ratings business is a great business because credit ratings are a “must-have” for new debt issuance. Not checkable · 2018
Unresolvable Factual 2018 In recent months Pershing Square purchased preferred stock of both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 While we believe there are enormous pressures facing U.S. center-of-plate packaged food companies, MDLZ is not such a company. Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 S&P’s financial data services business is also attractive because of its stable recurring revenue stream due to its valuable proprietary… Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 While we believe that deteriorating business fundamentals and a high valuation are a good recipe for an attractive short sale, technical… Not checkable · 2018
Not researched Factual 2018 The Pershing Square strategy's compounded annual return since inception has fallen to 13.6%, a six-fold return on a day-one investment. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 We believe that ADP stock is substantially undervalued if the company’s operations are optimized. Not checkable · 2018
Mostly true Factual 2018 In 2017 Pershing Square's performance was hurt by the cost of the Allergan settlement, losses on the exit from Valeant, and losses from its short position in Herbalife. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2018 Herbalife's recently filed 10-K cover page reports 87.4 million shares outstanding, of which only 22.7 million were held by non-affiliates as of June 30, 2017. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 It is rare that we are a short-term investor. Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 We believe this undervaluation is driven by concerns that emerged in 2017 concerning the U.S. grocery landscape, MDLZ’s growth potential… Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 Excluding HLF, which we have exited, we remain optimistic about the risk/return profile of these positions to a greater extent than before… Not checkable · 2018
Not researched Factual 2018 Index funds hold a large number of Herbalife shares as non-affiliates, and Herbalife recently announced another tender offer. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2018 From January 1, 2004 to July 31, 2015, investors in the Pershing Square strategy earned a 20.5% compounded annual return versus 7.8% for the S&P 500. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 If PAH shares traded at a valuation comparable to competitors and the company achieved analyst earnings estimates, they would be worth more than $19, nearly 75% above current levels. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 We continue to believe that QSR is a high-quality business that reflects our core investment principles and remains undervalued. Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 I attribute our underperformance last year to three principal factors. Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 This represents one of the largest investment commitments that we have seen from a management team, highlighting their strong shareholder… Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 We have taken a number of important steps in 2017 and early 2018 that position the portfolio and our investment operation for profits in… Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 Despite these factors, we believe that since our initial investment in 2013, FNMA’s and FMCC’s intrinsic business value and the probability… Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 (it is unclear why the company does not report this calculation as of a more recent date) Not checkable · 2018
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 Over time, QSR should be able to successfully execute additional value-creating acquisitions. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2018 Herbalife's use of debt capital and financial engineering, together with Mr. Icahn's share purchases reducing the free float, drove its share price appreciation. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 although we do not intend to do so until the company tender is completed. Not checkable · 2018
Own records only Factual 2018 Pershing Square sold its S&P Global shares because a large stock price increase during accumulation prevented it from building a meaningful position. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 2018 Herbalife's earnings per share, revenue growth and other business performance measures have weakened substantially since Pershing Square initiated its investment. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 we believe that the proxy contest was an effective tool to highlight the value-creation opportunity that exists at ADP. Not checkable · 2018
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 We seek to invest in businesses with dominant market share and significant barriers to entry. Not checkable · 2018
Not researched Factual 2018 S&P Global was a new Pershing Square investment in 2017 in which it could not establish a meaningful position at an attractive price. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2018 NKE has unmatched marketing spend and brand loyalty, patented innovations and manufacturing skill (primarily footwear) and substantial… Not checkable · 2018
Not researched Factual 2018 Platform Specialty Products (PAH) stock ended 2017 essentially unchanged. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
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Bill Ackman

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Factual Their own work or organisation

“As previously disclosed, we exited Herbalife and Nike during the first quarter of 2018.”

Bill Ackman, letter author 17 May 2018 Pershing Square 1Q18 Investor Letter (Pershing Square Holdings)

Pershing Square exited its Herbalife and Nike positions during the first quarter of 2018.

Not researched Checkable, but outside the sample that was researched.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Pershing Square exited its Herbalife and Nike positions during the first quarter of 2018.” (said 17 May 2018). Verdict: not researched. Reliability API, claim c_40d341ca8885, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_40d341ca8885

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