ClaimsPeople

Bill Ackman

Bill Ackman is a hedge fund manager and the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, which has a fund listed on Euronext Amsterdam.

865 claims collected, 272 researched, 99 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    76 70 81

    High confidence, 82 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2011 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 48 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    68 54 82

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2014 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 81 unresolvable. 8 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 6 unresolvable, 1 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Ackman's claims

865 claims · page 5 of 9

865 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Prediction 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square said it believes its portfolio companies will continue to compound their intrinsic values at high rates over the long term, while noting it does not know what the stock market will do over the next day, month or year or two. Prediction · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 26 Jan 2022 We believed that an unexpected rise in rates could cause a market correction. Not checkable · 26 Jan 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 26 Jan 2022 pricing power derived from the enormous value it delivers to consumers compared with other alternatives Not checkable · 26 Jan 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 26 Jan 2022 We viewed this outcome to be a likely one, yet the options we purchased implied that this scenario was very unlikely. Not checkable · 26 Jan 2022
Unresolvable Factual 26 Jan 2022 Netflix's substantial stock price decline was further exacerbated by recent market volatility. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 26 Jan 2022 substantial margin expansion, with the opportunity for continued improvement due to economies of scale and the company’s rapidly growing… Not checkable · 26 Jan 2022
Unresolvable Prediction 26 Jan 2022 Netflix's economies of scale and industry-leading content should continue to drive future growth and widen its competitive moat. Prediction · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 26 Jan 2022 a truly best-in-class management team and unique high-performance culture Not checkable · 26 Jan 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 26 Jan 2022 As such, we believe that our portfolio companies trade at an even more material discount to their intrinsic values, particularly in light… Not checkable · 26 Jan 2022
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2022 Investors reacted negatively to Netflix's recent quarterly subscriber growth and management's short-term guidance, creating an opportunity to buy at an attractive valuation. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square's interest rate hedge notional size was reduced by 80%, its retained hedge term extended, and its dollar investment in hedges reduced by more than 90%. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square had never previously owned a stake in Netflix. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 26 Jan 2022 all of our portfolio companies are extremely high-quality businesses that can withstand inflation as they have the ability to price their… Not checkable · 26 Jan 2022
Own records only Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square began analyzing Netflix in connection with its Universal Music Group investment, before Netflix's stock price declined sharply the previous Friday. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 26 Jan 2022 We invest in asymmetric hedges as they offer the opportunity for large gains without exposing the portfolio to meaningful losses in the… Not checkable · 26 Jan 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 26 Jan 2022 We do not believe that the recent move in rates has had any meaningful impact on our companies’ intrinsic values. Not checkable · 26 Jan 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 26 Jan 2022 Now with both UMG and Netflix, we are all-in on streaming as we love the business models, the industry contexts, and the management teams… Not checkable · 26 Jan 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 26 Jan 2022 Netflix is a primary beneficiary of the growth in streaming and the decline in linear TV driven by its superior customer experience Not checkable · 26 Jan 2022
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The statement, written as "we believe", predicts that the attributes it describes (a legal regime where the rule of law is generally respected, limited corruption, a world class military and defense, and a corporate and capital markets environment where capitalism can flourish) will increase in importance to investors in light of recent events. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 Our differentiated capital base and growing reputational equity enabled us to win an investment mandate where price was an important but… Not checkable · 2022
Not researched Factual 2022 Lowe's trades at about 16 times earnings, at a substantial discount to Home Depot. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 Russia has become uninvestable. Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 The SPAC market is in total disarray for reasons largely of its own making. Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 As a long-term major owner, we could now invest without regard to short-term considerations, an enormous competitive advantage as nearly… Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 reinforces our belief that Hilton deserves a premium valuation. Not checkable · 2022
Not researched Factual 2022 PSH NAV per share rose from $17.41 to $57.30 between Dec 31, 2017 and Dec 31, 2021, a 35.4% compound annual and 236% cumulative return versus 17.6% and 91.5% for the S&P 500. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 2022 Pershing Square Holdings generated NAV performance of 26.9% in 2021. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Promise 2022 SPARC will have no shareholder warrants or underwriting fees and only common stock outstanding, other than 20% out-of-the-money Sponsor and Director Warrants on 5.21% of the post-transaction company. Promise · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 The war in Ukraine is a tragedy. Not checkable · 2022
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The statement said "we believe" that Hilton would continue to grow its market share at an attractive rate over time. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 We are pleased with our long-term record and our performance in recent years, but we are not resting on our laurels. Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 China is not far behind due to their crackdown on corporations and high-profile CEOs, and their tacit approval of Russia’s actions. Not checkable · 2022
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Bill Ackman said "we believe" that all of "our portfolio companies" will generate long-term durable growth, citing their market positions, free cash flow generation, returns on capital, pricing power and balance sheets. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 Our strong preference is for PSH’s shares to trade at or around intrinsic value for which we believe our NAV per share is a conservative… Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 It was a good decision. Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 The industries and businesses in which we have invested are highly attractive and well positioned to withstand negative externalities. Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 De-globalization is inherently inflationary. Not checkable · 2022
Mixed Factual 2022 Most of Pershing Square's portfolio companies use their free cash flow to repurchase their own shares. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Pershing Square said in 2022 that it expected that, with continued strong performance, PSH's discount to NAV would narrow and its NAV and market value returns would converge. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 PSTH is open for business. Not checkable · 2022
Not researched Factual 2022 Pershing Square does not use hedges to protect its mark-to-market performance from short-term downward volatility. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 Hilton has done a superb job navigating industry volatility, a testament to both the company’s high-quality business model and excellent… Not checkable · 2022
Not researched Factual 2022 Pershing Square has largely succeeded in having constructive engagements with portfolio companies, other than in the initial stages of a handful of proxy contests. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 We own businesses that we believe will survive the proverbial great flood. Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 Much like UMG, we believe Netflix is well positioned as a leading beneficiary of the long-term secular growth in streaming, a high-quality… Not checkable · 2022
Not researched Factual 2022 Pershing Square has chosen to invest in companies close to home, in North America. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2022 Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The subject said they believe home improvement industry demand is likely to normalize at a higher baseline than before the pandemic. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2022 Pershing Square has always sought to have positive, constructive engagements with its portfolio companies and their boards and management teams. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Pershing Square said it believes successful completion and integration of the KCS acquisition will lead to attractive investment returns relative to its purchase price for CP. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2022 In 2021 Chipotle generated average restaurant sales of $2.6 million, exceeding the 2015 peak of $2.5 million. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 we prefer to have intermittent periods of downward volatility as they create opportunities to plant the seeds for greater long-term… Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 we exited because we believed that the capital could better be deployed in other opportunities, particularly when one considered the… Not checkable · 2022
Not researched Factual 2022 The failure to complete the proposed business combination involving UMG was unexpected because Pershing Square's, its counsel's, the counterparty's and the NYSE's understanding of the SPAC business combination rules appeared to permit the proposed transaction structure. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 So, if it is helpful to call this quieter approach Pershing Square 3.0, let it hereby be so anointed. Not checkable · 2022
Mostly true Factual 2022 PSH's stock currently trades at a 33.9% discount to NAV. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 2022 Netflix has the lowest churn rate by a wide margin among streaming services. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 We have been well rewarded for doing so. Not checkable · 2022
Not researched Factual 2022 Chipotle's 2021 performance was strong, driven by digital sales and the recovery of in-store ordering. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 Lowe’s is a high-quality business with significant long-term earnings growth potential. Not checkable · 2022
Not researched Factual 2022 Ackman stated that, given recent market volatility and a difficult IPO environment, PSTH's $1 billion to $3 billion of committed capital from Pershing Square and its Tontine warrant structure, designed to minimize the risk of shareholder redemptions, make it an even more attractive counterparty for a merger. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 but we need to do more. Not checkable · 2022
Not researched Factual 2022 Pershing Square initiated its investment in Lowe's in April 2018. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 2022 Pershing Square has permanently retired from activist short selling. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Bill Ackman said "we expect" the railroad industry's share of the freight transportation market to meaningfully improve from current levels. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 We find this valuation disparity to be anomalous in light of Lowe’s strong execution and potential for further operational optimization. Not checkable · 2022
Not researched Factual 2022 Pershing Square and affiliate funds acquired 10% of Universal Music Group in summer 2021 at a negotiated equity value of €33 billion, shortly before its distribution from Vivendi. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The statement attributed to Bill Ackman said "we" expect CP's leadership team to make significant operational improvements at KCS. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 Small organizations are often more productive, effective, and easier to manage than large ones. Not checkable · 2022
Not researched Factual 2022 Streaming is faster-growing, more predictable, less capital intensive and more profitable than physical or download recorded music. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 We attribute much of our success over the last four years to our improved ability to focus. Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 We do not need an exit strategy. Not checkable · 2022
Unresolvable Factual 2022 The 2022 swaptions have more than tripled in value from their original cost. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 2022 Pershing Square funds taking over the UMG transaction preserved its track record for closing deals and eliminated potential litigation risk from a failed transaction. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 I am extremely fortunate to come to work every day alongside an extremely talented group of colleagues. Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 We believe UMG’s current valuation represents a significant discount to intrinsic value Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 We do not invest for the short term; therefore, we do not believe it makes sense to hedge for potential short-term declines in the stock… Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 Our experience and our culture have proven to be important sources of our competitive advantage and sustainability in an industry with a… Not checkable · 2022
Not researched Factual 2022 Rail reduces greenhouse gas emissions by up to 75% compared to trucking. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Lowe's is headed for another year of double-digit earnings-per-share growth in 2022. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 2022 Under its new approach to investor relations, Pershing Square spent effectively all business time on investments and generated the best performance in its history. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 We believe that many investors still underappreciate the future long-term duration of growth in the music industry. Not checkable · 2022
Not researched Factual 2022 All of Pershing Square's interactions with companies over the last five years have been cordial, constructive, and productive. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 2022 Pershing Square is one of the few investment managers in the world with such a large capital commitment from the individuals making investment decisions. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Factual 2022 Profits on the investments made with redeployed capital were substantially greater than the gains from holding Valeant and Herbalife would have been. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 2022 CP's shares have recently traded at a discounted valuation relative to their history and peers. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 2022 Pershing Square Holdings had a total shareholder return of 18.6% in 2021, lower than NAV return because the discount to NAV widened. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2022 Ackman stated an estimate ("we estimate") that over the next decade Netflix can achieve double-digit annual revenue growth, significantly expand its operating profit margins, and grow earnings per share by more than 20% per year. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 We believe these concerns are largely misplaced. Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 A smaller Pershing Square is both an extremely effective and attractive place to work, making it easier for us to retain talent, minimize… Not checkable · 2022
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The speaker said "we" expect each of the holdings listed just before the quote (including Restaurant Brands, Domino's, Lowe's, Howard Hughes, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Hilton and Canadian Pacific) to grow revenues and profitability over the long term. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 When macro considerations warrant the purchase of protection and the price of the insurance is favorable, we over insure. Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 We believe Netflix’s current valuation represents a meaningful discount to intrinsic value for a business of its quality and exceptional… Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 The prospects of high inflation, deteriorating growth, and the potential for a U.S. and global recession have increased significantly. Not checkable · 2022
Not researched Factual 2022 Pershing Square sold Valeant and closed its Herbalife short, though it believed substantial profits would likely have been realized from then trading prices. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 2022 Pershing Square's cumulative NAV return since inception is 1,670% versus 484% for the S&P 500. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 we believe these factors are substantially outweighed by a legal regime where the rule of law is generally respected (more so than in most… Not checkable · 2022
Not checkable Not checkable 2022 We believe that our companies’ stock price declines are driven principally by the overall stock market disruption due to uncertainty about… Not checkable · 2022
Not researched Factual 2022 Rail accounts for less than 10% of U.S. freight transportation dollars, while trucking represents more than 60%. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Not researched Factual 2022 In 2021 Chipotle raised prices to cover inflation and protect margins with very little customer resistance. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Back to the list

Bill Ackman

Open its page

Prediction Economics and markets

“While we do not know what the stock market will do tomorrow, next month or even over the next year or two, we believe that our companies will continue to compound their intrinsic values at high rates for the long term.”

Bill Ackman, PSCM letter to investors 26 January 2022 Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. Releases Letter to Investors (Netflix) (Pershing Square Holdings)

Pershing Square said it believes its portfolio companies will continue to compound their intrinsic values at high rates over the long term, while noting it does not know what the stock market will do over the next day, month or year or two.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Vague 'long term' prediction with no horizon and undefined 'high rates'.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Pershing Square said it believes its portfolio companies will continue to compound their intrinsic values at high rates over the long term, while noting it does not know what the stock market will do over the next day, month or year or two.” (said 26 January 2022). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_531c1caa3bb9, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_531c1caa3bb9

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Bill Ackman? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.