ClaimsPeople

Bill Ackman

Bill Ackman is a hedge fund manager and the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, which has a fund listed on Euronext Amsterdam.

865 claims collected, 272 researched, 99 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    76 70 81

    High confidence, 82 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2011 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 48 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    68 54 82

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2014 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 81 unresolvable. 8 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 6 unresolvable, 1 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Ackman's claims

14 claims

14 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mixed Prediction Aug 2024 Howard Hughes' land sales segment is on track to generate nearly $300 million in full-year 2024 profits. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction Aug 2024 Chipotle is on track to open approximately 300 new restaurants in 2024 and expects to more than double its store base to at least 7,000 North American locations over time. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction Aug 2024 Chipotle's limited-time Smoked Brisket launch starting in September 2024 should further improve sales trends. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction Aug 2024 CPKC expects to exit 2024 with C$800 million of new business from revenue synergies. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction Aug 2024 Pershing Square believed Universal Music Group's underperformance in the latest quarter would prove short-term and said it did not change its view of UMG's medium and long-term growth prospects. Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2022 Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2022 Chipotle is on track to achieve management's goal of more than $3 million in average restaurant sales. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 19 Aug 2021 The Sponsor Warrants will likely be worthless if PSTH does not complete a high-quality transaction on favorable terms. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 19 Aug 2021 PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Prediction 16 Nov 2020 Widespread Covid vaccinations that will end the pandemic in the US are only a few months away from November 2020. Prediction · 16 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Prediction 17 May 2018 Absent a further policy change from Treasury and FHFA, the subject said he expected Freddie Mac to resume dividend payments to the Treasury in the third quarter of 2018. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 17 May 2018 These factors should enable ADP to achieve at least about $6.25 of EPS in fiscal year 2020, nearly 25% above management's September 2017 guidance. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2016 Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 5 May 2014 Banks are not likely to step back in and provide meaningful mortgage investment. Prediction · 5 May 2014 Economics and markets
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Bill Ackman

Open its page

Prediction Their own work or organisation

“If we are successful in securing SPARC’s approval, and I am confident that we will get it done, we will have a clear path to mitigate the harm that this litigation has and will continue to cause to PSTH shareholders and warrant holders.”

Bill Ackman, PSTH CEO, in investor letter 19 August 2021 Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Provides Update to Investors (Pershing Square Holdings)

PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

'SPARC's approval' means the SEC declaring effective (or otherwise clearing) the registration of Pershing Square SPARC Holdings so that SPARC rights or warrants could be issued to PSTH shareholders and warrant holders. TRUE: the SEC approved or declared effective SPARC's registration, and SPARC rights were in fact distributed to PSTH's shareholders and warrant holders (current or former), giving them the planned avenue of compensation. MOSTLY TRUE: approval was obtained and rights were distributed, but only to part of the intended holders (for example shareholders but not warrant holders). MOSTLY FALSE: approval was obtained but the SPARC was never used to benefit PSTH holders (no distribution to them). FALSE: SEC approval was never obtained, or the SPARC plan was abandoned or blocked.

Evidence

  1. Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd. Announces Launch and SPAR Distribution Business Wire (issued by Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd.) · 29 September 2023 Own record
    “Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd. (“SPARC”) today announced that the SEC has declared SPARC’s registration statement effective. SPARC will shortly be distributing special purpose acquisition rights (“SPARs”) at no cost to former securityholders of Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, Ltd. (“PSTH”).”
  2. EX-4.6 Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd. (SEC filing exhibit: Description of Securities) · 31 December 2023 Own record
    “On September 30, 2023, we distributed our SPARs at no cost to the former holders of the Class A common stock of Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, Ltd. ("PSTH") and former holders of the distributable redeemable warrants of PSTH, based on ownership as of July 25, 2022,”
  3. Pershing Square SPARC Launch Raises Tax Questions - Akin Gump Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP · 24 January 2024
    “distributed some 61 million subscription warrants after finally securing Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval for its launch.”
  4. Cadwalader Guides Pershing Square SPARC Launch and SPAR Distribution Hogan Lovells Cadwalader · 3 October 2023 Own record
    “Cadwalader represented Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd. (SPARC) in its successful launch following the SEC declaring SPARC’s registration statement effective, announced on September 29.”

Reasoning

An independent law-firm commentary (E3) reports that Pershing Square SPARC got SEC approval and distributed about 61 million subscription warrants. SPARC's own announcement (E1) says the SEC declared its registration statement effective. Its SEC filing exhibit (E2) records that on September 30, 2023, SPARs were distributed at no cost to former PSTH Class A shareholders and former PSTH distributable warrant holders. Approval was obtained and both groups of holders received rights, so the claim meets the TRUE criteria; the prediction had no deadline.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders.” (said 19 August 2021). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_c4e55d79c970, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c4e55d79c970

Claims without a verdict

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