Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
76 70 81 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
68 54 82 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Bill Ackman's claims
“The Sponsor Warrants will likely be worthless if we do not consummate a high-quality transaction on favorable terms.”
Bill Ackman, PSTH CEO, in investor letter 19 August 2021 Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Provides Update to Investors (Pershing Square Holdings)
The Sponsor Warrants will likely be worthless if PSTH does not complete a high-quality transaction on favorable terms.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
This is a conditional prediction: if Pershing Square Tontine Holdings (PSTH) did not consummate a high-quality transaction on favorable terms, the Sponsor Warrants would be worthless. Judge it at PSTH's deadline to complete a deal or wind up, around July 2022. If PSTH did not complete an initial business combination, it is true if the Sponsor Warrants expired, were forfeited or were cancelled without the sponsor receiving any value. It is mostly true if they became worthless with only a negligible residual or a technical detail differing. It is false if the sponsor still realized material value from them, for example through conversion, sale or transfer into a successor vehicle (such as SPARC rights) at meaningful value. Use mixed or mostly false for partial value retained, according to how much. If PSTH did complete a transaction, the condition was not met: judge it mostly true if the outcome is consistent with the stated logic and mixed if it cannot be tested.
Evidence
- EX-99.1 - SEC.gov Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, Ltd. (Exhibit 99.1 to SEC filing) · 11 July 2022 Own record
“There will be no redemption rights or liquidating distributions with respect to the Company’s warrants, which will expire worthless.”
- Tax Consequences of Pershing Square SPAC Liquidation Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP · 24 July 2022
“Warrants will receive no consideration from the company and will expire worthless.”
- Bill Ackman’s Long-Running SPAC Drama Is Finally Over. Or Is It? Institutional Investor · 13 July 2022
“Warrants expire worthless — including the one that Pershing Square owns.”
- Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. (2022 Interim Report and Unaudited Condensed Interim Financial Statements, June 30, 2022) Own record
“As a result, the forward purchase agreement has terminated and the Sponsor Warrants have expired. Once the liquidation of PSTH is completed, PSTH will distribute the remaining cash in the entity, if any, to PSTH Sponsor which holds PSTH’s Class B common stock and the Sponsor Warrants.”
Reasoning
The condition was met: PSTH announced in July 2022 that it would liquidate without completing a deal, and that its warrants would get no redemption rights or liquidating distributions and would expire worthless (E1). Two independent sources confirm this. Institutional Investor reported that the warrants expired worthless, including the one Pershing Square owns (E3), and Akin Gump said the warrants would receive no consideration (E2). Pershing Square Holdings' interim report states the Sponsor Warrants have expired (E4). It also mentions leftover PSTH cash, "if any," going to the sponsor, but that is an uncertain amount tied to the sponsor's role as the holder of both its Class B shares and the warrants, not value realized from the warrants.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “The Sponsor Warrants will likely be worthless if PSTH does not complete a high-quality transaction on favorable terms.” (said 19 August 2021). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_b80975d11a4d, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b80975d11a4d
Claims without a verdict
- Unresolvable 135
- Not yet due 9
- Own records only 29
- Not researched 162
- Not checkable 431
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Bill Ackman? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.