ClaimsPeople

Bill Ackman

Bill Ackman is a hedge fund manager and the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, which has a fund listed on Euronext Amsterdam.

865 claims collected, 272 researched, 99 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    76 70 81

    High confidence, 82 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2011 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 48 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    68 54 82

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2014 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 81 unresolvable. 8 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 6 unresolvable, 1 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Ackman's claims

272 claims · page 2 of 3

272 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Factual 2024 Cumulative total NAV return since inception is 2,078% versus 592% for the S&P 500. Factual · 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 4 Aug 2022 Discover was still providing payment services to MindGeek as of 4 August 2022, despite Visa and Mastercard suspending theirs. Factual · 4 Aug 2022 Other
Unresolvable Factual 2 Aug 2022 Visa CEO Al Kelly had not been willing to appear on camera to address the allegations as of 2 August 2022. Factual · 2 Aug 2022 Other
Resolved false Factual 2 Aug 2022 As of 2 August 2022, Visa had not responded publicly to the allegations about facilitating child trafficking on MindGeek/PornHub sites. Factual · 2 Aug 2022 Other
Unresolvable Promise 1 Aug 2022 Bill Ackman will appear on CNBC at 8:20am on 2 August 2022 to discuss what he called Visa's continued facilitation of child trafficking on PornHub and affiliated sites. Promise · 1 Aug 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 31 Jul 2022 The Pershing Square Foundation is not involved in this case but has supported organizations working to stop human trafficking and image-based abuse. Factual · 31 Jul 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 30 Jul 2022 Bill Ackman and his firm have no economic interest, long or short, in Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, Amex or any other payments company, processing company, bank or financial institution. Factual · 30 Jul 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 29 Jul 2022 Bond and stock markets rallied substantially after Powell said on Wednesday that Fed rates were at neutral (2.25–2.5%). Factual · 29 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 29 Jul 2022 The Big Four accounting firms are not directly exposed to gas or food inflation. Factual · 29 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 27 Jul 2022 Since the close on 14 June 2022, 2-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasury rates were down 36, 70 and 41 basis points respectively as of 27 July 2022. Factual · 27 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 14 Jul 2022 Ackman said that in response to the June 2022 CPI print, short-term fed funds futures moved upward, implying a peak fed funds rate of 3.68% by December 2022, then cuts to 2.9% by January 2024. Factual · 14 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 5 Jul 2022 There had been 309 mass shootings in the US year-to-date as of 5 July 2022, about 12 per week. Factual · 5 Jul 2022 Other
Resolved true Factual 4 Jul 2022 Interest rates declined dramatically over the two weeks before 4 July 2022. Factual · 4 Jul 2022 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 26 Jan 2022 To fund the Netflix purchase, Pershing Square unwound the substantial majority of its interest rate hedge over several days, generating proceeds of $1.25 billion. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 26 Jan 2022 Netflix's improving free cash flow profile should allow continued investment in growth and return of cash to shareholders. Prediction · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square acquired more than 3.1 million shares of Netflix over several days from Friday, making it a top-20 shareholder. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square said it believes its portfolio companies will continue to compound their intrinsic values at high rates over the long term, while noting it does not know what the stock market will do over the next day, month or year or two. Prediction · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 26 Jan 2022 Netflix's substantial stock price decline was further exacerbated by recent market volatility. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 26 Jan 2022 Netflix's economies of scale and industry-leading content should continue to drive future growth and widen its competitive moat. Prediction · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 26 Jan 2022 Investors reacted negatively to Netflix's recent quarterly subscriber growth and management's short-term guidance, creating an opportunity to buy at an attractive valuation. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square's interest rate hedge notional size was reduced by 80%, its retained hedge term extended, and its dollar investment in hedges reduced by more than 90%. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square had never previously owned a stake in Netflix. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 26 Jan 2022 Pershing Square began analyzing Netflix in connection with its Universal Music Group investment, before Netflix's stock price declined sharply the previous Friday. Factual · 26 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The statement, written as "we believe", predicts that the attributes it describes (a legal regime where the rule of law is generally respected, limited corruption, a world class military and defense, and a corporate and capital markets environment where capitalism can flourish) will increase in importance to investors in light of recent events. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Promise 2022 SPARC will have no shareholder warrants or underwriting fees and only common stock outstanding, other than 20% out-of-the-money Sponsor and Director Warrants on 5.21% of the post-transaction company. Promise · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The statement said "we believe" that Hilton would continue to grow its market share at an attractive rate over time. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Bill Ackman said "we believe" that all of "our portfolio companies" will generate long-term durable growth, citing their market positions, free cash flow generation, returns on capital, pricing power and balance sheets. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 2022 Most of Pershing Square's portfolio companies use their free cash flow to repurchase their own shares. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Pershing Square said in 2022 that it expected that, with continued strong performance, PSH's discount to NAV would narrow and its NAV and market value returns would converge. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 2022 Ackman said he believed hotel demand was likely to sustainably normalize at or above 2019 levels at some point later in 2022. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The subject said they believe home improvement industry demand is likely to normalize at a higher baseline than before the pandemic. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2022 Pershing Square has always sought to have positive, constructive engagements with its portfolio companies and their boards and management teams. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Pershing Square said it believes successful completion and integration of the KCS acquisition will lead to attractive investment returns relative to its purchase price for CP. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2022 In 2021 Chipotle generated average restaurant sales of $2.6 million, exceeding the 2015 peak of $2.5 million. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2022 PSH's stock currently trades at a 33.9% discount to NAV. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Bill Ackman said "we expect" the railroad industry's share of the freight transportation market to meaningfully improve from current levels. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The statement attributed to Bill Ackman said "we" expect CP's leadership team to make significant operational improvements at KCS. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2022 The 2022 swaptions have more than tripled in value from their original cost. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Lowe's is headed for another year of double-digit earnings-per-share growth in 2022. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2022 Ackman stated an estimate ("we estimate") that over the next decade Netflix can achieve double-digit annual revenue growth, significantly expand its operating profit margins, and grow earnings per share by more than 20% per year. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The speaker said "we" expect each of the holdings listed just before the quote (including Restaurant Brands, Domino's, Lowe's, Howard Hughes, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Hilton and Canadian Pacific) to grow revenues and profitability over the long term. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Risk premiums should continue to rise. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2022 Pershing Square's limited activist short selling, two high-profile engagements, generated enormous media attention. Factual · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2022 Universal Music Group is the world's leading music entertainment company. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Pershing Square said it believes the SPARC structure will, over time, enable it to own large stakes in high quality, newly public businesses that meet its investment criteria. Prediction · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Pershing Square expects its portfolio companies to continue to compound their intrinsic values at even higher rates than before due to their currently reduced valuations. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2022 UMG does not need to acquire catalogs to continue its strong growth and achieve its medium-term guidance from its last Capital Markets Day. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2022 There is an unprecedented backlog in professional home improvement projects heading into 2022. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Speaking as "we", the statement said they believe CP's acquisition of KCS will be transformational for CP's rail network. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 UMG can grow revenues at an annual rate approaching double digits for more than a decade. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Promise 2022 If the SEC approves the subscription warrant listing rule and declares SPARC's registration statement effective, Pershing Square intends to distribute SPARs to PSTH shareholders and warrant holders in 2022. Promise · 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2022 Rail transportation is cheaper than trucking over longer distances. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 The current geopolitical environment has increased the probability of significant North American onshoring and energy investment, which would strengthen CP's volume growth over time. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2022 Chipotle is on track to achieve management's goal of more than $3 million in average restaurant sales. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 2022 Day One Investors multiplied their equity investment by 18 times versus six times for a zero-fee S&P 500 index fund. Factual · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Pershing Square believes the businesses it owns have substantial pricing power that will enable them to cover the costs of inflation. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2022 Deglobalization appears to be coming to the capital markets, much as the world is deglobalizing. Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 19 Aug 2021 The NYSE has offered to work closely with PSTH and the SEC to accelerate the necessary rule change for SPARC warrants. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 19 Aug 2021 The Sponsor Warrants restrict selling, hedging or transferring for three years after the initial business combination. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 19 Aug 2021 PSTH's ability to complete a transaction in the required time frame has been impaired by the lawsuit. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 19 Aug 2021 Robert Jackson served as an SEC Commissioner between January 2018 and February 2020. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 19 Aug 2021 Holding cash and government securities while seeking a business combination does not make PSTH or other SPACs illegal investment companies. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 19 Aug 2021 As of August 2021, PSTH has about 11 months remaining to enter into a letter of intent for its initial business combination. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Promise 19 Aug 2021 PSTH shareholders will receive $20 per share in cash and one SPARC warrant per share owned, following the cash return. Promise · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 19 Aug 2021 The time needed to resolve the lawsuit will increase the likelihood that the Sponsor and Director Warrants expire worthless. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 19 Aug 2021 Listing SPARC warrants on the NYSE requires an NYSE rule change subject to SEC approval, which is being pursued with the NYSE. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 19 Aug 2021 A successful claim in the lawsuit would imply that every SPAC may also be an illegal investment company. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 19 Aug 2021 None of PSTH's directors nor its Sponsor has received or been promised any compensation of any kind. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 19 Aug 2021 Had the UMG transaction closed, the Pershing Square Funds would have invested $1.6 billion in PSTH units on the same terms as IPO investors. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 19 Aug 2021 The two law professors behind the lawsuit told the press their motivation was to reform the entire SPAC industry. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 19 Aug 2021 The existence of the litigation may deter potential merger partners from working with PSTH until the lawsuit is resolved. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 19 Aug 2021 The lawsuit against PSTH is unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 19 Aug 2021 Ackman stated that "we expect" all PSTH shareholders would be highly supportive of the rule change needed to replace the Distributable Warrants with SPARC Distributable Warrants. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 19 Aug 2021 The Sponsor Warrants will likely be worthless if PSTH does not complete a high-quality transaction on favorable terms. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 19 Aug 2021 PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders. Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 19 Aug 2021 The abandoned PSTH/UMG deal is the only SPAC business combination known to the speaker where the sponsor would have received no additional consideration versus other shareholders. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 19 Aug 2021 If SPARC is approved by the SEC and its warrants by the NYSE and PSTH has not entered a merger, Pershing Square intends to seek PSTH shareholder approval to return the $4 billion of cash held in trust. Promise · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 19 Aug 2021 The SPARC warrants will remove the two-year "shot clock" for a sponsor to complete a transaction. Factual · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 10 Dec 2020 Visa has suspended payments to Pornhub. Factual · 10 Dec 2020 Other
Unresolvable Promise 19 Nov 2020 Bill Ackman will match donations to a cause dollar for dollar. Promise · 19 Nov 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 17 Nov 2020 Once exposed to Covid, a person can infect and kill others. Factual · 17 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Factual 17 Nov 2020 As of mid-November 2020, Covid had infected 11.5 million Americans and killed 252,000, about 1 in 45 of those infected. Factual · 17 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Factual 17 Nov 2020 Face masks against Covid are available for 15 cents each. Factual · 17 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Mixed Prediction 16 Nov 2020 Widespread Covid vaccinations that will end the pandemic in the US are only a few months away from November 2020. Prediction · 16 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Prediction 16 Nov 2020 If the US does not take Covid seriously, another 500,000 Americans will die of Covid. Prediction · 16 Nov 2020 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Jan 2019 If Congress members went unpaid during shutdowns like federal workers, the US would no longer have government shutdowns. Prediction · 25 Jan 2019 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Factual 17 May 2018 Dawn Lepore joined the Pershing Square Advisory Board in the quarter referred to as "this quarter" in the statement made on 2018-05-17. Factual · 17 May 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 17 May 2018 Absent a further policy change from Treasury and FHFA, the subject said he expected Freddie Mac to resume dividend payments to the Treasury in the third quarter of 2018. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Pratt & Whitney's profit margins, currently depressed by losses from the GTF program ramp-up, should expand meaningfully as the GTF engine begins generating aftermarket revenues. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Pershing Square expected PSH's discount to NAV to narrow given reduced free float, a substantially increased investment by the investment manager and improved investment performance. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 HHC's share of stabilized cash flow from the project is estimated to be over $19 million. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 17 May 2018 These factors should enable ADP to achieve at least about $6.25 of EPS in fiscal year 2020, nearly 25% above management's September 2017 guidance. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 17 May 2018 HHC arranged third-party debt and preferred and common equity commitments reducing HHC's cash investment in the project to $49 million. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Pershing Square said it believed Tim Hortons' recent same-store sales slowdown would ultimately prove temporary, and expected the "Winning Together" plan and recent leadership changes to enable a return to historical growth rates. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Mondelez's valuation gap should close as it reports differentiated results over the coming quarters. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Ackman said that, because Congress had not put forth a viable plan since conservatorship began, "we believe" it was increasingly likely that the administration and FHFA would soon take the lead on housing finance reform. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Other
Resolved true Factual 17 May 2018 The total estimated cost of Howard Hughes' 110 North Wacker project is $761 million, with an estimated 7.9% unlevered yield on cost. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 17 May 2018 Pershing Square estimates more than 70% of Otis' profits come from its service contracts. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 17 May 2018 Howard Hughes Corp adopted a new revenue recognition standard in Q1 2018 that significantly reduced GAAP revenue and earnings but not intrinsic value or cash flows. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 17 May 2018 Mondelez should continue to deliver sustained double-digit EPS growth even in the current environment. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
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Bill Ackman

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Prediction Their own work or organisation

“While we believe the lawsuit is meritless, the nature of the suit and our legal system make it unlikely that it can be resolved in the short term.”

Bill Ackman, PSTH CEO, in investor letter 19 August 2021 Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Provides Update to Investors (Pershing Square Holdings)

The lawsuit against PSTH is unlikely to be resolved in the short term.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

'Short term' is undefined, so it can't be tested cleanly.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “The lawsuit against PSTH is unlikely to be resolved in the short term.” (said 19 August 2021). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_8dbd4e36b1f1, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8dbd4e36b1f1

Claims without a verdict

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