Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
-
Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
76 70 81 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
68 54 82 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Bill Ackman's claims
“Considered together, these factors should enable ADP to achieve a minimum of ~$6.25+ in EPS by FY 2020, nearly 25% more than the guidance provided by management last September”
Bill Ackman, writing in PSH investor letter 17 May 2018 Pershing Square 1Q18 Investor Letter (Pershing Square Holdings)
These factors should enable ADP to achieve at least about $6.25 of EPS in fiscal year 2020, nearly 25% above management's September 2017 guidance.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Measure: ADP's fiscal year 2020 diluted EPS (fiscal year ending 30 June 2020) as reported in its FY2020 results and 10-K. Use adjusted diluted EPS, ADP's headline non-GAAP measure, which is comparable to the guidance cited. If the figures are later restated, the restated figure governs. Because the claim says 'a minimum of ~$6.25+', the threshold is approximate. True: FY2020 adjusted diluted EPS is $6.25 or more. Mostly true: $6.10–$6.24, or the EPS threshold is met but the 'nearly 25% above September 2017 guidance' comparison turns out to be materially misstated. Mixed: $5.90–$6.09. Mostly false: $5.60–$5.89. False: below $5.60. A figure reached only in a later fiscal year does not count.
Evidence
- 10-K Annual Report Wed Aug 05 2020 Last10K.com (reproduces ADP's fiscal 2020 earnings press release, filed as 8-K 2.02) · 29 July 2020 Own record
“Diluted EPS increased 9% to $5.70, and adjusted diluted EPS increased 9% to $5.92 due to the factors discussed above and a net share count reduction.”
- ADP 10-K FY2020 Annual Report — Revenue, Net Income, EPS AnalystLens · 5 August 2020
“Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) grew by 9% to $5.70.”
- EarningsCall · ADP Q4 2020 EarningsCall (transcript of ADP's 29 July 2020 earnings call) · 29 July 2020 Own record
“With this revenue and margin performance, our adjusted EPS growth was flat for the quarter and up 9% for the year.”
Reasoning
ADP's fiscal 2020 earnings release, filed as an 8-K, reports adjusted diluted EPS up 9% to $5.92 and GAAP diluted EPS of $5.70 [E1]. An independent summary of the FY2020 10-K confirms the $5.70 GAAP figure [E2], and the earnings call transcript confirms adjusted EPS growth of 9% for the year [E3]. Adjusted diluted EPS of $5.92 is within the criteria's $5.90–$6.09 band, so the verdict is mixed rather than true.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “These factors should enable ADP to achieve at least about $6.25 of EPS in fiscal year 2020, nearly 25% above management's September 2017 guidance.” (said 17 May 2018). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_5f56e3e71efd, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5f56e3e71efd
Claims without a verdict
- Unresolvable 135
- Not yet due 9
- Own records only 29
- Not researched 162
- Not checkable 431
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Bill Ackman? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.