Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
76 70 81 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
68 54 82 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Bill Ackman's claims
29 claims
“We make about 15% of our money in passive ideas.”
Bill Ackman, Pershing Square, speaking at Ira Sohn Conference 6 June 2011 Transcript of Bill Ackman's Super Fast Speech at the Ira Sohn Conference (Insider Monkey)
Bill Ackman says his firm makes about 15% of its money from passive ideas.
Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
Share of firm profits from passive ideas is an internal figure.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “Bill Ackman says his firm makes about 15% of its money from passive ideas.” (said 6 June 2011). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_5bbc38d760cb, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5bbc38d760cb
Claims without a verdict
- Unresolvable 135
- Not yet due 9
- Own records only 29
- Not researched 162
- Not checkable 431
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