ClaimsPeople

Bill Ackman

Bill Ackman is a hedge fund manager and the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, which has a fund listed on Euronext Amsterdam.

865 claims collected, 272 researched, 99 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    76 70 81

    High confidence, 82 factual claims resolved. From 16 documents, 2011 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 48 unresolvable, 28 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    68 54 82

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2014 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 81 unresolvable. 8 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 3 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 6 unresolvable, 1 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 96 claims: 82 factual claims, 14 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Ackman's claims

272 claims · page 3 of 3

272 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Factual 17 May 2018 MDLZ trades at about 15.5 times forward earnings, a trough valuation since the October 2012 Kraft Foods spin-off and a 25% discount to its average multiple since then. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 17 May 2018 Consensus analyst estimates for ADP's 2020 EPS were $5.63 per share, which the statement described as 10% below its minimum base estimate of about $6.25. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 17 May 2018 On Platform's earnings call, management reiterated it is on track to separate its two businesses in the second half of 2018. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 17 May 2018 With 25% of entitlements utilized, Ward Village will offer substantial continued value creation for Howard Hughes over the next decade. Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 17 May 2018 United Technologies trades at about 16 times Pershing Square's estimate of 2018 earnings, pro forma for the Rockwell Collins acquisition. Factual · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 If housing finance reform is successful, FNMA and FMCC common and preferred stock will likely be worth multiples of their current share prices. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2018 Nike's emerging markets comprise about 30% of its revenue. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2018 Pershing Square restructured its Herbalife short position into put options to limit downside exposure, as discussed in its Q3 2017 investor letter. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2018 Bill Ackman wrote that, as the largest investor in the Pershing Square funds, he and the other members of the Pershing Square team had experienced the funds' recent underperformance first hand. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 Nike's historical high-single-digit annual revenue growth rate is likely to continue. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 Pershing Square expected continued acceleration in revenue growth, double-digit EPS growth and clarity on Mr. Van de Put's strategy to cause MDLZ's valuation to rise to levels approaching intrinsic value. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2018 In recent months Pershing Square purchased preferred stock of both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2018 In 2017 Pershing Square's performance was hurt by the cost of the Allergan settlement, losses on the exit from Valeant, and losses from its short position in Herbalife. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2018 Herbalife's recently filed 10-K cover page reports 87.4 million shares outstanding, of which only 22.7 million were held by non-affiliates as of June 30, 2017. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2018 From January 1, 2004 to July 31, 2015, investors in the Pershing Square strategy earned a 20.5% compounded annual return versus 7.8% for the S&P 500. Factual · 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 If PAH shares traded at a valuation comparable to competitors and the company achieved analyst earnings estimates, they would be worth more than $19, nearly 75% above current levels. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 Over time, QSR should be able to successfully execute additional value-creating acquisitions. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2018 Herbalife's use of debt capital and financial engineering, together with Mr. Icahn's share purchases reducing the free float, drove its share price appreciation. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2018 Pershing Square sold its S&P Global shares because a large stock price increase during accumulation prevented it from building a meaningful position. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2018 HHC CEO David Weinreb and President Grant Herlitz recently entered into 10-year employment agreements. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 ADP's delivery on its proxy-contest commitments, together with tax reform and rising interest rates, will drive a significant increase in ADP's earnings. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2018 Pershing Square owned Nike for four months, recently sold the position, and Nike's stock rose 34% during that period. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2018 PSH exited its investments in Air Products, Hilton, Nomad Foods, an undisclosed position and Valeant during 2017. Factual · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 If ADP's Employer Services growth rises to ~7%+ and margins to 35% or greater, ADP would earn ~$10 of EPS by FY2022, more than double current earnings. Prediction · 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 28 Jan 2016 In 2015 there was no financial crisis, except perhaps in the energy, commodity and currency markets. Factual · 28 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 28 Jan 2016 Pershing Square missed the opportunity in 2015 to trim or sell certain positions that approached its estimate of intrinsic value. Factual · 28 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 Even the largest index funds have only about 20 people (one per ~1,000 companies) in their governance departments. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square bought additional Platform Specialty Products stock at $25 per share to help the company finance an acquisition. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual Jan 2016 In 2015 Pershing Square missed opportunities to trim or sell positions that approached its estimate of intrinsic value. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square's currency puts have not served as a useful hedge against declines in its portfolio, which fell more than expected given limited China and oil exposure. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Jan 2016 As of early 2016 Pershing Square had made only a modest profit on its yuan and Saudi Riyal hedge investments. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square has had limited turnover on its investment team and throughout the firm since its inception. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square has never attempted to hedge short-term market movements but has sought inexpensive hedges against the risk of dramatic market declines. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square continues to hold its yuan and Saudi Riyal currency put investments as of early 2016. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street often cumulatively own 12%, and as much as 20%, of nearly every public company. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Jan 2016 Early in 2015 Pershing Square believed the Chinese stock market was in bubble territory but found the cost of buying puts on it prohibitive. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Promise Jan 2016 Pershing Square expects to add at least one new investment to its portfolio in the next few months after January 2016. Promise · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 Two days after Pershing Square began building its yuan position, China did a 2% surprise devaluation that substantially increased the cost of the options it had intended to keep buying. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2016 Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square's biggest valuation error was assigning too much value to 'platform value' in certain holdings. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 China and Saudi Arabia have continued to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to defend their currency pegs. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 At current asset inflow rates, index funds will effectively control Corporate America and many foreign countries' corporations before long. Prediction · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Jan 2016 Because credit default swaps were an unattractive hedge, Pershing Square looked for other instruments to protect against Black Swan-type risks. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square largely abandoned its strategy of shorting the credit of highly rated, highly leveraged companies as a hedge in 2009. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square started slowly with Paul Hilal because his prior focus was technology and the firm had never made a technology investment. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square purchased puts on the Saudi Riyal to hedge against a continued decline in energy prices. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Jan 2016 Pershing Square continued building its yuan position by buying slightly more out-of-the-money puts and selling further out-of-the-money puts. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual Jan 2016 Ackman said that when the company's stock rose to the mid-$200s per share "this summer", "we" did not sell, believing it probable that the company would complete additional transactions that would meaningfully increase intrinsic value. Factual · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual Jan 2016 In summer 2015 Pershing Square built large notional short positions in the Chinese yuan through puts and put spreads. Factual · Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2016 Bill Ackman said Paul was ready to pursue his own venture and that he expected him to be a great success. Prediction · Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 21 Jul 2014 Ackman told CNBC's Halftime Report that his side had hundreds of hours of internal video and some internal documents given to them by some employees. Factual · 21 Jul 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 21 Jul 2014 Herbalife's so-called nutritional clubs are not places where people get together to talk about losing weight. Factual · 21 Jul 2014 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 21 Jul 2014 Allergan's reported earnings growth is not driven by an increase in revenue growth. Factual · 21 Jul 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 5 May 2014 Banks are not likely to step back in and provide meaningful mortgage investment. Prediction · 5 May 2014 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2014 Ackman said he and his firm did not think any investor of consequence in the world would invest in the new version of Fannie and Freddie, likely referring to the Crapo-Johnson bill. Prediction · 5 May 2014 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 5 May 2014 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's fixed-income arbitrage activity is a highly-levered, hedge-fund-like business. Factual · 5 May 2014 Economics and markets
Mostly false Factual 5 May 2014 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are more important today in the mortgage market than they have ever been. Factual · 5 May 2014 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 6 Jun 2011 The company being discussed, which the resolution criteria take to be Family Dollar, has 14% of its sales in higher-margin products, compared with figures of 22% and 20% that the speaker cited for comparison. Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar spends about $325,000 per new store, by Ackman's estimate. Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 6 Jun 2011 The business being discussed has net debt of about $100 million and is a profitable, consistent business. Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 6 Jun 2011 Ackman said the business he was describing earns a 20% return on capital overall. Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 6 Jun 2011 Bill Ackman says his firm makes about 15% of its money from passive ideas. Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 6 Jun 2011 Dollar General performs much better than Family Dollar. Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Own records only Promise 6 Jun 2011 Bill Ackman says he will send out all the slides from his presentation. Promise · 6 Jun 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Jun 2011 If the business matched what KKR and the management team achieved at Dollar General, keeping the multiple the same as Dollar General's, investors would make a 70% profit versus the prior night's close. Prediction · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar expects to complete its $750 million buyback by fall 2011. Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar will return to 5-7% annual unit growth. Prediction · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 6 Jun 2011 Bill Ackman says he had an even better GDP-type idea but it was not liquid enough to present at the conference. Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 6 Jun 2011 Drug stores, which sell the same kind of goods, charge 20% more, and supermarkets about 15% more, than the retailer being discussed. Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar trades at a price-earnings ratio of 14. Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Mixed Factual 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar continues to take market share even during difficult economic environments. Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 6 Jun 2011 Family Dollar is consolidating stores. Factual · 6 Jun 2011 Economics and markets
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Bill Ackman

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Factual Their own work or organisation

“We make about 15% of our money in passive ideas.”

Bill Ackman, Pershing Square, speaking at Ira Sohn Conference 6 June 2011 Transcript of Bill Ackman's Super Fast Speech at the Ira Sohn Conference (Insider Monkey)

Bill Ackman says his firm makes about 15% of its money from passive ideas.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Share of firm profits from passive ideas is an internal figure.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Bill Ackman says his firm makes about 15% of its money from passive ideas.” (said 6 June 2011). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_5bbc38d760cb, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5bbc38d760cb

Claims without a verdict

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