Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

117 claims · page 1 of 2

117 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 OpenAI will release GPT-5 imminently. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 GPT-5 will still make a significant number of obvious errors that are hard to predict. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 If the model being discussed has guardrails like ChatGPT's, they will teeter between being too weak (beaten by jailbreaks) and too strong (rejecting some perfectly reasonable requests). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 27 Jul 2025 GPT-5 by itself will not be a general-purpose AGI capable of arbitrary tasks. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 27 Jul 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Prediction 23 Jul 2025 Asked whether it would be nuclear fusion, Demis Hassabis said he thinks fusion and solar are the two energy sources he would bet on. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 23 Jul 2025 Technology
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, the government becomes extremely interested in AI and discusses nationalizing the AI companies. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Dario Amodei Prediction 10 Mar 2025 US export controls may have the effect of stimulating China's chip development. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Dario Amodei Prediction 28 Feb 2025 By the end of 2025, AI will do very serious things in coding. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Bill Gates Prediction 4 Feb 2025 Some government policies affecting climate work will become less favorable than before. Bill Gates · Prediction · 4 Feb 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Prediction 26 Jan 2025 Andreessen said energy independence and large net energy exports are a matter of choice, and that he thinks the new Trump administration will choose to pursue them. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 AI Safety Institutes will offer guidance in 2025 but have little legal authority to stop truly dangerous models. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Profits from AI models will remain modest or nonexistent in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Lack of reliability will continue to afflict generative AI in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Hallucinations will continue to afflict generative AI in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Less than 10% of the workforce will be replaced by AI in 2025, probably less than 5%. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 The US will continue to have very little regulation protecting consumers from generative AI risks in 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 AI agents will be heavily hyped throughout 2025 but remain far from reliable, except possibly in very narrow use cases. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2025 Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 AI power consumption will rise in 2025 and remain a major problem, while few generative AI companies will be transparent about their usage. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 No single AI system will solve more than 4 of the AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 1 Jan 2025 In 2025 humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release a robot remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 1 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Dario Amodei Prediction 11 Nov 2024 Dario Amodei said he would not be surprised at all if Anthropic's models hit ASL-3 in 2025. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 11 Nov 2024 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 27 Aug 2024 France may not be able to hold Telegram founder Pavel Durov in custody for long. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 27 Aug 2024 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Bill Ackman Prediction Aug 2024 Chipotle is on track to open approximately 300 new restaurants in 2024 and expects to more than double its store base to at least 7,000 North American locations over time. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Bill Ackman Prediction Aug 2024 CPKC expects to exit 2024 with C$800 million of new business from revenue synergies. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Aug 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 4 May 2024 Apple will very likely still be Berkshire's largest common stock holding at the end of 2024, despite Berkshire having sold some shares. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 18 Apr 2024 A 1GW data center will be built eventually, but not in 2025 (next year). Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 18 Apr 2024 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Demis Hassabis Prediction 28 Feb 2024 Hassabis said he thought the next versions of these systems, over the next year to 18 months, might have some contextual understanding of the user's environment through a camera, phone or glasses. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 28 Feb 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Prediction 2 Sep 2023 There will be Chinese AI systems that embody Communist ideology. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 2 Sep 2023 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Dario Amodei Prediction 8 Aug 2023 In a year or two (from 2023), AI model consciousness might become a very real concern. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 6 Apr 2023 AI alignment will not be solved within a few years. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 6 Apr 2023 GPT-5 will not end the world, with more than 50% of Yudkowsky's probability on that outcome. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 6 Apr 2023 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Training GPT-4 will cost $100 million. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 3 Jan 2023 China will respond strongly to US technological and economic containment rather than take it lightly. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Other global risks
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2023 If US electric vehicle sales keep growing at 68% per year, electric cars would be 28% of new US car sales in 2025. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved true Steven Pinker Prediction 30 Dec 2022 ChatGPT will not put Google Search out of business in the near term. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 30 Dec 2022 Technology
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 25 Dec 2022 GPT-4 will definitely seem smarter than its predecessors, but its internal architecture will remain problematic. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 25 Dec 2022 AI capabilities
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 28 Oct 2022 UK mortgage rates may double because of reckless fiscal policy and debt build-up. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 31 Aug 2022 Grantham says historical parallels suggest the worst of the current market downturn is still to come. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 31 Aug 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 30 Jun 2022 Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 30 Jun 2022 If Republicans take control of the House in 2023, they are pretty likely to hold COVID panels or investigations. Nate Silver · Prediction · 30 Jun 2022 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 9 Jun 2022 Democrats could hold the Senate in the 2022 midterms if GOP candidates are subpar in a couple of key states or Democrats win the closest races. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 9 Jun 2022 Democrats holding the House in the 2022 midterms would require an unlikely change in the national environment. Nate Silver · Prediction · 9 Jun 2022 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true GiveWell Prediction 6 Apr 2022 GiveWell likely will not be able to share a full response to all contest entries, due to limited research capacity. GiveWell · Prediction · 6 Apr 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2022 Tesla's energy business will grow in 2022. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Daniela Amodei Prediction 2022 Daniela Amodei said she hoped, and thought it likely, that in the next few years AI would see something closer to standard-setting organizations, industry groups or trade associations setting out what a safe model looks like or how to move systems towards being safer. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 2022 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Bill Ackman Prediction 2022 Chipotle is on track to achieve management's goal of more than $3 million in average restaurant sales. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Tyler Cowen Prediction 29 Dec 2021 The University of Austin will genuinely teach classic works. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 29 Dec 2021 Field building and careers
Resolved true Bill Ackman Prediction 19 Aug 2021 The Sponsor Warrants will likely be worthless if PSTH does not complete a high-quality transaction on favorable terms. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Bill Ackman Prediction 19 Aug 2021 PSTH will secure SPARC's approval, giving a path to mitigate the harm the litigation causes shareholders and warrant holders. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 19 Aug 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Nate Silver Prediction 11 Jun 2021 The US could see a rise in COVID cases because of the Delta variant, as in the UK. Nate Silver · Prediction · 11 Jun 2021 Biosecurity
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 9 Jul 2020 There will be no level 5 autonomous cars on roads in 2020. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 9 Jul 2020 Technology
Resolved true Satya Nadella Prediction 30 Apr 2020 In two years' time (by 2022) more work will be done in public or hybrid cloud than now. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 30 Apr 2020 Economics and markets
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Prediction 18 Apr 2020 The essay "It's Time to Build" will be the target of criticism. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 18 Apr 2020 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 People who suffer severe COVID-19 may have long-term health impacts that are not yet known. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Biosecurity
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 13 Mar 2020 COVID-19 will cause at least a recession, likely something more severe. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 13 Mar 2020 Economics and markets
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 20 Sep 2019 Marcus said he did not think machines would reach world-class scientific reasoning within the next five years (by 2024). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 16 Aug 2019 Economic conditions will take a turn for the worse over the next one to three years from August 2019. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 16 Aug 2019 Dalio said he thought there was probably a 40 percent chance of a US recession in the next two years, before the next US election. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Sam Altman Prediction 5 Jan 2019 By 2025, net-gain nuclear fusion will be working at prototype scale. Sam Altman · Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 Technology
Resolved true Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 Absent a further policy change from Treasury and FHFA, the subject said he expected Freddie Mac to resume dividend payments to the Treasury in the third quarter of 2018. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 China may be moving toward using AI for pervasive, all-seeing control of its population. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would remember and publicly grade these predictions sometime in 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Through 2023, there will be no obvious sign that technological unemployment is happening on a large scale. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects to farm down 50% of Hornsea 1 either in H2 2018 or in 2019. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Claims before 2023 to be the next big thing in AI beyond deep learning will not pan out. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 AI capabilities
Resolved true Rodney Brooks Prediction 1 Jan 2018 Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 1 Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that Reddit would not ban r/the_donald by the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 There will not be a 'Truckpocalypse' before 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 2018 The European Union will not collapse by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 Other
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 12 Sep 2017 The Trump administration's anticipated tax and economic changes will probably be enacted in a watered-down version. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 A significant number of EMDrive skeptics will not become convinced it works during 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Science and research methods
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 6 Jan 2017 There will be no revolt against the Chinese Communist Party of Tiananmen Square scale or greater in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2017 Unless there are substantial unexpected negatives, US corporate margins will be up in 2017. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Sam Altman Prediction 2017 Agrees with Kellyanne Conway that Trump is a man of action who is just getting started. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2017 Other
Resolved true Elon Musk Prediction 20 Jul 2016 Tesla Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice 89 million miles, i.e. over 178 million miles. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Elon Musk Prediction 20 Jul 2016 Refinement and validation of self-driving software will take much longer than installing the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 There will be no earthquake in the world killing more than 10,000 people in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Assad would remain President of Syria. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that ISIS would control less territory at the end of 2016 than it did in January 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Republicans will keep control of the US Senate after the 2016 elections. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Libya would remain a mess. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2016 He sees the biggest risk as an extended economic recovery, which he expects to last two more years, that might start to push up wages enough to count. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 17 Sep 2015 Bonds will return about 2.25% a year over the next 10 years. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 17 Sep 2015 The US/global economy will have an economic downturn at some point. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 17 Sep 2015 Economics and markets
Resolved true Bill Gates Prediction 2015 In the epidemic shown, which would spread throughout the world very quickly, over 30 million people die. Bill Gates · Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Resolved true Satya Nadella Prediction 10 Jul 2014 There will soon be more than 3 billion people with Internet-connected devices. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 10 Jul 2014 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Ørsted Prediction Feb 2014 DONG Energy expects business performance EBITDA of DKK 15-17 billion in 2014. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2014 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Michael Burry Prediction 5 Apr 2011 Burry said he expected the US government to attempt to continue easy money policies into the next presidential term. Michael Burry · Prediction · 5 Apr 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 23 Sep 2010 Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
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Gary Marcus

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Prediction AI capabilities

“GPT-5 really is about to drop, no foolin’.”

Gary Marcus, author 27 July 2025 What to Expect When You're Expecting … GPT-5 (Marcus on AI)

OpenAI will release GPT-5 imminently.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

'About to drop' is read as a release within roughly one month of 2025-07-27. True: OpenAI publicly released a model named GPT-5 (available to users or through the API) on or before 2025-08-27. Mostly true: it was released by 2025-08-27, but only in a limited form, for example to a restricted group, while still officially launched as GPT-5. Mostly false: it was released after 2025-08-27 but by 2025-10-27. False: it was not released by 2025-10-27, or OpenAI announced a delay or cancellation. A release under a different name does not count.

Evidence

  1. Introducing GPT-5 OpenAI · 7 August 2025
    “GPT‑5 is starting to roll out today to all Plus, Pro, Team, and Free users, with access for Enterprise and Edu coming next week.”
  2. Introducing GPT-5 for developers OpenAI · 7 August 2025
    “Today, we’re releasing GPT‑5 in our API platform—our best model yet for coding and agentic tasks.”
  3. OpenAI claims new GPT-5 model boosts ChatGPT to ‘PhD level’ BBC · 7 August 2025
    “The company will roll out the model to all users from Thursday.”

Reasoning

OpenAI's launch post, dated 2025-08-07, says GPT-5 "is starting to roll out today" to Plus, Pro, Team and Free users (E1). Its developer post from the same day says GPT-5 is being released in the API (E2). The BBC, an independent source, reported the rollout to all users the same day (E3). The release came before the 2025-08-27 cutoff, so the prediction resolved true.

Cite this claim

Gary Marcus, “OpenAI will release GPT-5 imminently.” (said 27 July 2025). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_1c16957bd93e, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1c16957bd93e

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.