344 claims · page 1 of 4
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own records only | Scott Alexander | Factual | 19 Oct 2026 | Scott Alexander is continuing to work on modeling, and maybe later automating, parts of AI grantmaking. Scott Alexander · Factual · 19 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Promise | 14 Oct 2026 | 5% of Cassandra Unchained's gross revenues in October 2026 will go to Siloam Health. Michael Burry · Promise · 14 Oct 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | GiveWell | Factual | 30 Sep 2026 | Over the past two years GiveWell increased its research team from 38 people to 85 and is continuing to hire across the organization. GiveWell · Factual · 30 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Peter Thiel | Factual | 25 Sep 2026 | Thiel said he wrote the article quickly and sent it to a colleague to ask whether anything in it was too controversial. Peter Thiel · Factual · 25 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 15 Sep 2026 | Zuckerberg uses both Muse and Meta AI. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 15 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Sam Altman | Factual | 4 Sep 2026 | By 2015 Sam Altman had become convinced that powerful AI was really going to happen and decided to try building it. Sam Altman · Factual · 4 Sep 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | GiveWell | Prediction | 31 Aug 2026 | GiveWell estimates that programs supported by the funds it directed in 2025 will save an additional 86,000 lives. GiveWell · Prediction · 31 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Ørsted | Factual | 13 Aug 2026 | As of August 2026, all Ørsted construction projects, including Hornsea 3 in the UK, are progressing according to schedule and within planned costs. Ørsted · Factual · 13 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Ørsted | Factual | 13 Aug 2026 | Ørsted is progressing according to schedule and within planned costs across all its construction projects. Ørsted · Factual · 13 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Bill Ackman | Factual | 12 Aug 2026 | Over the prior two decades Pershing Square has built a library of hundreds of businesses that meet its core investment principles. Bill Ackman · Factual · 12 Aug 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Elon Musk | Factual | 27 Jul 2026 | Elon Musk said he has been there literally a hundred times. Elon Musk · Factual · 27 Jul 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 29 Apr 2026 | Meta is already training models more advanced than Muse Spark. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 29 Apr 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 29 Apr 2026 | As of April 2026, Meta has its next set of more advanced AI models in training. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 29 Apr 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 29 Apr 2026 | Meta is testing an early version of business AIs, and weekly conversations have grown 10 times since the start of 2026. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 29 Apr 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 29 Apr 2026 | The number of people using Meta's AI glasses daily tripled year over year. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 29 Apr 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 10 Apr 2026 | Hassabis said he thinks his team is working on about 18 or 19 drug programs across a range of areas, from cardiovascular disease to cancer to immunology. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 10 Apr 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Elon Musk | Factual | 28 Jan 2026 | CyberCab's whole design was to optimize the fully considered cost per mile of autonomous driving. Elon Musk · Factual · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Satya Nadella | Factual | 28 Jan 2026 | Microsoft 365 Copilot had its biggest quarter-over-quarter improvement in response quality to date. Satya Nadella · Factual · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Jan 2026 | Meta is elevating individual contributors and flattening its teams. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Jan 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 10 Nov 2025 | Buffett's children and the Berkshire directors are fully supportive of Greg Abel as CEO. Warren Buffett · Factual · 10 Nov 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 10 Nov 2025 | Buffett and Charlie Munger several times encountered a CEO's debilitating disease and failed to act. Warren Buffett · Factual · 10 Nov 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 6 Oct 2025 | During Amazon's 2000 stock decline, it was still loss-making but its losses as a percentage of sales fell every month. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Oct 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 6 Oct 2025 | During Amazon's 2000 stock decline, its gross profits rose every month. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 6 Oct 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Steven Pinker | Factual | 24 Sep 2025 | Pinker gives many more A grades than he used to, to avoid an empty lecture hall. Steven Pinker · Factual · 24 Sep 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Sam Altman | Promise | 11 Sep 2025 | Sam Altman will double check and follow up with Tucker Carlson to confirm user data is never given to anyone else except under subpoena. Sam Altman · Promise · 11 Sep 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Sam Altman | Factual | 11 Sep 2025 | Sam Altman has not talked to the authorities about the death of the former OpenAI programmer. Sam Altman · Factual · 11 Sep 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Sam Altman | Factual | 14 Aug 2025 | OpenAI has taken a lot of feedback from users in India about what they want from it. Sam Altman · Factual · 14 Aug 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 30 Jul 2025 | Meta sees Meta AI engagement increase as it improves the models behind Meta AI and swaps in updated models. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 30 Jul 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 23 Jul 2025 | About half of Google DeepMind's resources are devoted to new blue-sky ideas. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 23 Jul 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Satya Nadella | Factual | Jul 2025 | Microsoft 365 Copilot had its largest quarter of seat additions since launch, with a record number of customers returning to buy more seats. Satya Nadella · Factual · Jul 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Satya Nadella | Factual | Jul 2025 | Satya Nadella said that he and Amy Hood track not only head app usage but also the Tier 2 applications that are being built. Satya Nadella · Factual · Jul 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Satya Nadella | Factual | Jul 2025 | Microsoft is seeing a massive increase in usage of GitHub Copilot Code Review Agent, even where other tools such as Claude Code were used to write the code. Satya Nadella · Factual · Jul 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Scott Alexander | Factual | 3 Apr 2025 | Scott Alexander discovers a new blogger he is super excited about about once a year. Scott Alexander · Factual · 3 Apr 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Scott Alexander | Factual | 3 Apr 2025 | Typically about 1% of the people who read a blog's viral hit stick around as regular readers, based on Slate Star Codex's early growth. Scott Alexander · Factual · 3 Apr 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | Amodei and colleagues felt that OpenAI's leadership was on board with the scaling hypothesis, though many people inside and outside were not. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 10 Mar 2025 | Amodei and his cofounders left OpenAI and started their own company because they felt OpenAI's leadership was not taking these issues seriously. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | Mar 2025 | Starting at age eight, Kurzweil created a virtual reality theater that was a big hit in his third grade class. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 28 Feb 2025 | Changing a model's name in Anthropic's API is hard, especially when it is offered to many partners and surfaces. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Ray Dalio | Factual | 22 Feb 2025 | Dalio said that, in terms of his actual track record, he has probably been right about 65 percent of the time. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 26 Jan 2025 | Marc Andreessen has seen a newspaper columnist get a CEO fired but has not seen a CEO get a columnist fired. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 10 Jan 2025 | Zuckerberg said that it was probably over about a few years that he started coming to the conclusion that Meta would need to change something about a program he described as destroying trust, especially in the United States. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 10 Jan 2025 | Meta added disappearing messages to its messaging products partly for security reasons. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 10 Jan 2025 | Zuckerberg communicates with only a few people over SMS, mostly using WhatsApp, Instagram Direct or Messenger. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | The duration of Scion's single-name corporate CDS portfolio is roughly 3.5 years. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | Scion's investment in Blue Ocean Re has largely been wound up. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | A number of the companies covered by Scion's credit protection contracts are engaged in the mortgage business. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | Scion's credit protection contracts cover $4.27 billion in notional value, largely on financial companies. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Elon Musk | Factual | 2025 | Tesla has investigated every possible way to achieve increased voting control for Elon Musk. Elon Musk · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | Scion COO and General Counsel Steve Druskin and CFO Zaeed Kalsheker led a top-to-bottom reorganization of Scion's back office over the past year. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 2025 | Greg Abel has met many times with the managements of the five Japanese trading companies, and Buffett regularly follows their progress. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 2025 | Carrie, whose grandfather was Bill Kizer, Sr., refused any payment for her extensive work on the new "Charlie" edition. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | Michael Burry keeps the vast majority of his net worth invested in the Scion Value Fund. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Prediction | 2025 | Burry said he expected additional distributions of capital and profits from the Blue Ocean Re investment during the remainder of the year of the letter. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Michael Burry | Factual | 2025 | At the start of the second quarter, Scion Qualified Value Fund held $612 million in assets under management and Scion Value Fund held $133 million. Michael Burry · Factual · 2025 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Tyler Cowen | Factual | 25 Dec 2024 | Tyler Cowen said he thinks the episode with Peter is typically the most downloaded episode for many people, and that it is his pick. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 25 Dec 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Satya Nadella | Factual | 19 Nov 2024 | A customer using Copilot to draft incident reports now completes analysis in a day that previously took weeks. Satya Nadella · Factual · 19 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Satya Nadella | Factual | 19 Nov 2024 | Copilot responses are more than two times faster on average and response satisfaction has improved nearly threefold. Satya Nadella · Factual · 19 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 11 Nov 2024 | Models becoming lazy in coding is not due to Anthropic trying to save on compute or to seasonal effects, but to the difficulty of steering model behaviour. Dario Amodei · Factual · 11 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 11 Nov 2024 | For the most part, with some narrow exceptions, deployed models are not changing after release. Dario Amodei · Factual · 11 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 11 Nov 2024 | Anthropic has never changed the weights of a deployed model without telling anyone. Dario Amodei · Factual · 11 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 11 Nov 2024 | In 2017, seeing GPT-1 results convinced Amodei that language was probably the area where scaling could work. Dario Amodei · Factual · 11 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Nate Silver | Factual | 7 Nov 2024 | Nate Silver voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Nate Silver · Factual · 7 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 28 Oct 2024 | No quid pro quo of any kind was involved in the Washington Post's decision not to endorse a presidential candidate in 2024. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 28 Oct 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Jeff Bezos | Factual | 28 Oct 2024 | Neither presidential campaign nor candidate was consulted or informed about the Washington Post's non-endorsement decision, which was made entirely internally. Jeff Bezos · Factual · 28 Oct 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 18 Sep 2024 | Zuckerberg said he told Alex Himel, who he described as running the product group, that he thought they should probably pivot the product to make Meta AI its primary feature. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 18 Sep 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Bill Ackman | Factual | Aug 2024 | Since restructuring away from open-end fund management in 2017, Pershing Square's investment team has allocated substantially all its time to investing. Bill Ackman · Factual · Aug 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 5 May 2024 | Warren Buffett alone made the decision for Berkshire to sell its Paramount stake, with no involvement from Ted Weschler or Todd Combs. Warren Buffett · Factual · 5 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 5 May 2024 | Buffett receives very few calls from Berkshire's operating managers, close to zero. Warren Buffett · Factual · 5 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 5 May 2024 | Warren Buffett said he thinks he read Ben Graham's book about five or six times. Warren Buffett · Factual · 5 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 5 May 2024 | Buffett read through the Moody's Transportation Manual a couple of times when he was about 20 or 21. Warren Buffett · Factual · 5 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 5 May 2024 | Buffett does not get phone calls from Berkshire's operating managers. Warren Buffett · Factual · 5 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 5 May 2024 | Berkshire needed Disney's approval to use the Desperate Housewives actresses in its meeting movie, and the approval was easily obtained. Warren Buffett · Factual · 5 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 4 May 2024 | Berkshire's operating executives overwhelmingly prefer to talk to Greg Abel and Ajit Jain rather than to Buffett. Warren Buffett · Factual · 4 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Warren Buffett | Factual | 4 May 2024 | Warren Buffett said he thinks he read Ben Graham's book about five or six times. Warren Buffett · Factual · 4 May 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 18 Apr 2024 | Meta concluded it must solve general intelligence and increased its investment to do so. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 18 Apr 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 18 Apr 2024 | Zuckerberg decided Meta should order enough GPUs for Reels and ranking needs, plus double that amount. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 18 Apr 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 12 Apr 2024 | Amodei says he has found a workflow that does not use the models for the part where they help little (in the surrounding text, generating initial ideas), and says they can help with expressing and refining ideas. Dario Amodei · Factual · 12 Apr 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 12 Apr 2024 | Dario Amodei occasionally uses Anthropic's internal models to assist with his strategy writing and thinking. Dario Amodei · Factual · 12 Apr 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 12 Apr 2024 | Dario Amodei said that at Anthropic he writes strategic planning documents or does some new thinking, possibly on directions others have not covered. Dario Amodei · Factual · 12 Apr 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 12 Apr 2024 | In Amodei's short-term personal experience, he has always found a workflow in which AI tools assist him. Dario Amodei · Factual · 12 Apr 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 9 Apr 2024 | After moving to America, Khosla got to know Andy Grove fairly well and told him the story of reading about him in magazines. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 9 Apr 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 9 Apr 2024 | In 2007 Khosla called Andy Grove and asked him to speak to Khosla Ventures' founders. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 9 Apr 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 9 Apr 2024 | Used magazines rented in old Delhi during Khosla's youth came from the U.S. and Europe and were therefore dated. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 9 Apr 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Vinod Khosla | Factual | 9 Apr 2024 | When Andy Grove said he would talk about why electric vehicles are better than biofuels, Khosla told him to go ahead. Vinod Khosla · Factual · 9 Apr 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Elon Musk | Factual | 19 Mar 2024 | Musk typically works 16-hour days. Elon Musk · Factual · 19 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Sam Altman | Factual | 18 Mar 2024 | Sam Altman has recently been using GPT-4 as a brainstorming partner. Sam Altman · Factual · 18 Mar 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 28 Feb 2024 | Google DeepMind devotes about half its effort to scaling and half to inventing next architectures and algorithms. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 28 Feb 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Elon Musk | Factual | 24 Jan 2024 | Elon Musk was in Tesla's Optimus lab until around midnight the night before the January 2024 earnings call. Elon Musk · Factual · 24 Jan 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 1 Jan 2024 | Brooks took almost forty rides in Cruise vehicles in San Francisco in 2023 under the company's rider programs. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 1 Jan 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Bill Ackman | Factual | 2024 | Pershing Square has 40 employees. Bill Ackman · Factual · 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 21 Oct 2023 | As of October 2023 Rodney Brooks regularly rides in Cruise autonomous vehicles in San Francisco, more than once a week. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 21 Oct 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Sep 2023 | Llama 2 has received more downloads and usage than Zuckerberg expected, even though he was optimistic. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Mark Zuckerberg | Factual | 28 Sep 2023 | As of September 2023, Meta was not close to open sourcing its next foundation model that month and was still somewhat early in working on it. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 28 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Nate Silver | Factual | 12 Sep 2023 | Nate Silver has occasionally voted Republican or independent for state or local office. Nate Silver · Factual · 12 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Nate Silver | Factual | 12 Sep 2023 | Nate Silver has voted Democrat for president in every election since he was old enough, except 2012, when he did not vote. Nate Silver · Factual · 12 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Nate Silver | Factual | 12 Sep 2023 | Nate Silver has consistently scored in about the same place on the Political Compass test for many years. Nate Silver · Factual · 12 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Nate Silver | Factual | 11 Sep 2023 | The median Silver Bulletin post now gets about the same views as the median post Nate Silver wrote at FiveThirtyEight, with less variance (higher floor, lower ceiling so far). Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 2 Sep 2023 | Andreessen Horowitz holds certain meetings where everyone puts their phones face down. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 2 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 8 Aug 2023 | Anthropic's security measures will defend against most attacks and against a less determined state-level actor. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 8 Aug 2023 | Dario Amodei has pushed for better cybersecurity at every organisation where he has worked. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
“I’m continuing to work on modeling (and maybe one day automating) some parts of AI grantmaking”
Scott Alexander, ACX author 19 October 2026 Open Thread 456 (Astral Codex Ten)
Scott Alexander is continuing to work on modeling, and maybe later automating, parts of AI grantmaking.
Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.
Reasoning
His ongoing internal work on grantmaking modeling is known only to him.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander is continuing to work on modeling, and maybe later automating, parts of AI grantmaking.” (said 19 October 2026). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_ff8770547b23, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ff8770547b23
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.