Claims

Prediction · AI policy and governance

“I think we have OpenBrain, our fictional company’s net approval ratings getting down to minus 40, minus 50 sometime around this point.”

Scott Alexander, co-author of AI 2027 · 3 April 2025 · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo (Dwarkesh Podcast)

Scott Alexander said he thought the AI 2027 scenario has the fictional company OpenBrain's net approval rating falling to about minus 40 to minus 50 sometime around this point in the scenario.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

What would count as true or false

Treat this as a factual claim about what the published AI 2027 scenario contains. True: the scenario text says OpenBrain's net approval rating falls to roughly −40 to −50 at the stage of the scenario under discussion. A figure within about 5 points of that range (−35 to −55) counts as true, given the speaker's hedge. Mostly true: the scenario gives a sharply negative net approval (for example −30) at about that stage, or gives a figure in the range at a nearby stage. Mostly false: the scenario describes OpenBrain as unpopular but gives no figure, or a figure well outside the range (for example −20 or −70). False: the scenario shows OpenBrain's approval as neutral or positive at that point.

Evidence

1. About — AI 2027 AI Futures Project (ai-2027.com) · March 2026 Own record

   “We say OpenBrain has -25% net approval in Apr 2025, but we now believe the net approval was more like +15%, so our estimates were too low.”

2. About — AI 2027 AI 2027 (AI Futures Project) · 19 January 2026 Own record

   “Added Jan 2026: We say OpenBrain has -25% net approval in Apr 2025, but we now believe the net approval was more like +15%, so our estimates were too low.”

3. About — AI 2027 AI 2027 (AI Futures Project) · 19 January 2026 Own record

   “We originally used a question from this poll which asked about people's approval of OpenAI, but before asking that question respondents were told negative things about OpenAI's safety behavior, so this isn't an accurate representation of people's unanchored views.”

4. About — AI 2027 AI 2027 (AI Futures Project) · 19 January 2026 Own record

   “In the meantime, this less leading poll had OpenAI at +17% approval.”

5. AI 2027 - Rogue Replication Timeline Forecasting AI Futures (Substack) · 29 May 2025

   “By April 2027, OpenBrain's net approval rating has fallen to -32% (compared to -28% in the AI 2027 scenario), and the percentage of the US population that considers AI to be the country's most pressing problem has risen to 8% (compared to 5% in the AI 2027 timeline).”

6. AI 2027 AI Futures Project (ai-2027.com) · 3 April 2025 Own record

   “The White House is in a difficult position. They understand the national security implications of AI. But they also understand that it is deeply unpopular with the public.”

7. Thoughts on AI 2027 - Machine Intelligence Research Institute Machine Intelligence Research Institute · 9 April 2025

   “I am confused by why the OpenBrain approval rating is so low, here. I expect labs and models to be succeeding at public relations harder.”

Reasoning

The evidence gives only a few of the scenario's OpenBrain net approval figures. The scenario's own About page puts it at −25% in April 2025 (E1, E2). An independent analysis says the AI 2027 timeline has it at −28% in April 2027 (E5). The scenario passage quoted describes AI as deeply unpopular but gives no figure (E6), and MIRI's comment that the rating is "so low" also states no number or date (E7). It is unclear which stage of the scenario the speaker meant, and apart from a secondhand report of a −28% figure for April 2027 in an independent commentary (E5), the evidence does not show the scenario's figures for its later stages. So it cannot be determined whether the scenario reaches about −40 to −50 at that point.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander said he thought the AI 2027 scenario has the fictional company OpenBrain's net approval rating falling to about minus 40 to minus 50 sometime around this point in the scenario.” (said 3 April 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_5416568697f8, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5416568697f8