Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

28,548 claims · page 276 of 286

28,548 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 The uncompressed human genome contains about 800 million bytes. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 The spread of our intelligence through the universe, which he describes as slow and governed by the speed of light, will begin within 200 years of 2002. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 Whenever a person dies, you lose all that information in a person. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 The power of intelligence will grow exponentially and ultimately be powerful enough to change the destiny of the universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 There is progress in software, though its doubling factor is much slower than hardware's. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 If the speed of light is a fundamental barrier with no wormhole shortcuts, the spread of human-originated intelligence through the universe will be slow, governed by the speed of light. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Moore's Law (shrinking transistors on integrated circuits) was the fifth paradigm, not the first, to provide exponential growth in computing. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 If shortcuts such as wormholes exist, supremely intelligent beings will find, deploy and master them to reach other parts of the universe faster. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Within 25 years of 2002, humans will reverse-engineer the brain and go on to develop superintelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Faster-than-light effects seen in quantum disentanglement experiments transmit quantum randomness rather than information. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Astronomers have searched much of the sky with some level of sensitivity and have not detected any extraterrestrial civilization. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 The universe has been set up exquisitely enough to have intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 If ways to circumvent the speed of light exist, intelligence will find and master them. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 So if there are millions of civilizations that are millions or billions of years ahead of us, there would have to be millions that have… Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 In the future perhaps only one part in a trillion of intelligence will be biological, infused with human-level intelligence that amplifies itself via non-biological knowledge sharing. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 If the speed of light is not a limit, within 300 years our intelligence would saturate the whole universe, making it supremely intelligent. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Magnetic data storage has very regularly doubled every year. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 In the 2020s non-biological computation will cross over and, in hardware terms, dominate biological computation quantitatively. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Within 200 years of 2002, our intelligence will nearly saturate the available matter and energy in and around the solar system, given current understanding of computation limits. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Evolutionary processes accelerate and the returns from them grow in power (the Law of Accelerating Returns). Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Technology
Not researched Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 With DNA, evolution gained an information-processing machine to record its experiments and conduct them in a more orderly way. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 Of course, if that’s true, SETI won’t find them, because they’re outside of our light sphere. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Future humanity-derived intelligence will be very intelligent and able to decide whether to continue expanding. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Own records only Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil developed mathematical models of technology trends because as an inventor he realized an invention must make sense when the technology is finished, three or four years later. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 But let’s say they’re inside our light sphere, or that light isn’t a limitation, for the reasons I’ve mentioned. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 So even if the probability is one in a million, or one in a billion, there are still going to be millions, or billions, of life-bearing and… Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not yet due Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 Because the rate of progress doubles every decade, the technical milestone under discussion will take only 25 calendar years from 2002 to reach. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 Technology
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 technology, a continuation of biological evolution by other means. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Resolved true Ray Kurzweil Factual 12 Dec 2002 Kurzweil estimates the brain's information content at thousands of trillions of bytes, millions of times greater than the genome. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 12 Dec 2002 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Ray Kurzweil Prediction 12 Dec 2002 After saturating the solar system, intelligence will seek greater horizons and expand to the rest of the universe. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 12 Dec 2002 AI timelines and forecasting
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 but by the anthropic principle, we’re here, and by an analogous anthropic principle we are here in the lead. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 It creates a capability and then uses that capability to create the next. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 Of course the whole existence of our universe, with the laws of physics so sublimely precise to allow this type of evolution to occur is… Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 You need evolution. Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 That’s unlikely, but even if it’s true, SETI still won’t find them, because if a civilization like that has made that decision, it is so… Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not checkable Ray Kurzweil Not checkable 12 Dec 2002 If that’s true, they’re going to be distributed fairly evenly across cosmological time, so some will be ahead of us, and some will be… Ray Kurzweil · Not checkable · 12 Dec 2002
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 Considering the recessionary environment plaguing them, our retailing operations did well in 2001. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire's Nebraska Furniture Mart will keep its new Kansas City-area store open on Sundays. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 Finally, I would like to thank the wonderful and incredibly productive crew at World Headquarters (all 5,246.5 square feet of it) who make… Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Ron Peltier will likely make more real estate brokerage acquisitions for Berkshire in 2002 and the following years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Underwriting discipline is being restored at General Re and its Cologne Re subsidiary. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 I cannot promise results to partners. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Promise 28 Feb 2002 Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will play all comers blindfolded in the mall at Berkshire's 2002 annual meeting weekend. Warren Buffett · Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 GEICO got into huge trouble in the early 1970s because for several years it severely underreserved. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 Lew brings a new talent to Berkshire, and we hope to expand in leasing. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Historically Berkshire has obtained its insurance float at very low cost, with a cost below zero in about half the years it has operated. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Not researched Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Measured by the value of customers' planes, NetJets accounts for about half of the fractional ownership industry. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Shaw is Berkshire's largest non-insurance operation. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 I consequently let Berkshire operate with a dangerous level of risk ¾ at General Re in particular. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire expects the FINOVA transaction overall to prove satisfactory for Berkshire. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 No matter how much the cost, we will continue to be the industry leader in all three respects. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 And that we most definitely have. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 What counts in this business is underwriting discipline. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Under competitive conditions likely for a few years, NetJets' scale advantage will at best produce modest profits. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 FINOVA's prospects, therefore, are not as good as when we made our proposal to the bankruptcy court. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire lost $2 billion to $2.5 billion in the September 11th event without having been paid properly for the risk assumed. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Buffett made three decisions about Dexter that hurt Berkshire shareholders: buying it, paying for it with stock, and procrastinating on operational changes. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 At the 2001 shareholder baseball game, Buffett batted instead of pitching. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire's purchases of Fruit of the Loom debt indirectly reduced its purchase price for the whole company by a small amount. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 Here, too, return on invested capital is excellent. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Since Ajit Jain joined Berkshire in 1986, Buffett has known the details of almost every policy he wrote and never saw him break any of Berkshire's three underwriting rules. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 MidAmerican Energy's reported earnings should increase considerably in 2002 because the goodwill amortization charge will disappear under new GAAP rules. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 It took me only a minute to realize that he was our kind of manager and MiTek our kind of business. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Trailer leasing is cyclical, but Berkshire should earn decent returns in it over time. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 The mistake was an honest one, I can assure you of that. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not researched Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 The stock market outperformed underlying business results for a very long period before ending. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 For at least the next year, the Civic Auditorium in downtown Omaha is the only site available for Berkshire's annual meeting. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 Lou's thinking, of course, is quite similar to mine, but we usually end up in different securities. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 my results were poor, just as they have been for several years. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Own records only Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 The few fixed-income strategies involving highly-liquid AAA securities that Buffett manages have reasonable prospects of continuing to produce good returns over the next year or two. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Over time, Berkshire's insuring of jumbo risks should be profitable, though periodically it will bring a terrible year. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 At the 2001 Berkshire meeting, Patrick Wolff played as many as six blindfolded chess games simultaneously. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 GEICO's operating costs are low and far below those of its major competitors. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 Consequently, the correct rate for D&O "excess" (meaning the insurer or reinsurer will pay losses above a high threshold) might well, if… Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 I think she likes the national recognition she gains by being .8. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 Show your sophistication by ordering a rare T-bone with a double order of hash browns. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Mostly true Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 At the parent company level, Berkshire makes no charitable contributions except those designated by shareholders. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 Bad terminology is the enemy of good thinking. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not researched Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Over 37 years under present management, Berkshire per-share book value grew from $19 to $37,920, 22.6% compounded annually. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 No matter what the rate, trying to write good contracts with bad people doesn't work. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 I violated the Noah rule: Predicting rain doesn't count; building arks does. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 The probabilities are increasing, in an irregular and immeasurable manner, as knowledge and materials become available to those who wish us… Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not researched Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 In recent years Lou Simpson's investment performance has been far better than Buffett's. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Buffett previously assured shareholders that General Re was underwriting with discipline, and that assurance proved wrong. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 Discounting would exacerbate this already-serious situation and, additionally, would provide a new tool for the companies that are inclined… Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 Indeed, we have a major competitive advantage because of our tolerance for huge losses. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not researched Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire initially used the Dow Jones Industrials as its benchmark and later shifted to the S&P 500 when that index became widely used. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 The events of September 11th made it clear that our implementation of rules 1 and 2 at General Re had been dangerously weak. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 Whether we do a good job or a poor job is to be measured against the general experience in securities. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Buffett and Munger believe American business will do fine over time, but think equity prices as of early 2002 point to only moderate returns for investors. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 we have as fine an array of operating managers as exists at any company. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 the war against terrorism can never be won. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 We recommend scrapping the term "loss development" and its equally ugly twin, "reserve strengthening." Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 In a close-to-worst-case terrorism scenario involving about $1 trillion of damage, the insurance industry would be destroyed unless it dramatically limits its terrorism risk assumption. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Other global risks
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 If Sunday is sold out, try Gorat's on one of the other evenings you will be in town. Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not checkable Warren Buffett Not checkable 28 Feb 2002 relative results are what concern us, Warren Buffett · Not checkable · 28 Feb 2002
Not researched Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire's net worth fell $3.77 billion in 2001, cutting per-share book value of Class A and B stock by 6.2%. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 For some years Berkshire has been willing to assume more risk than any other insurer has knowingly taken on. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire's holdings, about 10% of Fruit of the Loom's senior debt, will probably return about 70% of face value. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Warren Buffett Factual 28 Feb 2002 In 37 Berkshire years, no CEO of an operating business has elected to leave Berkshire to work elsewhere. Warren Buffett · Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
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Ray Kurzweil

Open its page

Factual Science and research methods

“There are about 800 million bytes in the uncompressed genome.”

Ray Kurzweil, essay author 12 December 2002 The Intelligent Universe (Kurzweil Library)

The uncompressed human genome contains about 800 million bytes.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

Read the claim as: the haploid human genome is about 3 billion base pairs, and storing each base at 2 bits with no compression gives roughly 800 million bytes. True: the accepted haploid genome size (about 3.0–3.2 billion bp, as known in 2002), converted at 2 bits per base, gives a figure within about ±15% of 800 million bytes (roughly 680–920 million). Mostly true: within ±30%. Mostly false: the figure is only reached under a contrived assumption, or it differs by 30% up to a factor of 2 (for example, if a natural encoding such as 1 byte per base, or a diploid count, is taken as the standard uncompressed size). False: off by more than a factor of 2 under any reasonable uncompressed encoding.

Evidence

  1. Base pair Wikipedia · 28 October 2001
    “The haploid human genome (23 chromosomes) is estimated to be about 3.2 billion base pairs long and to contain 20,000–25,000 distinct protein-coding genes.”
  2. Base pair Wikipedia · 28 October 2001
    “One copy of the human genome consists of approximately 3 billion base pairs of DNA”
  3. Base pair Wikipedia · 28 October 2001
    “The finished length of the human genome is 2.86 Gb”

Reasoning

E1 and E2 put the haploid human genome at about 3–3.2 billion base pairs, and E3 gives a finished length of 2.86 Gb. At 2 bits per base, as the criteria specify, that comes to about 715–800 million bytes. This falls within the ±15% band around 800 million bytes (680–920 million), so the claim resolves true.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “The uncompressed human genome contains about 800 million bytes.” (said 12 December 2002). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_727f51764576, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_727f51764576

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.