Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,572 claims · page 24 of 26

2,572 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 13 Apr 2009 Enough people will live on seasteads (settlements on the oceans). Peter Thiel · Prediction · 13 Apr 2009 Other
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction 2009 Banks will become utilities, run with the responsibility of a water company. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction 2009 Banks will probably hold little risk on their balance sheets, with risks borne by individuals with capital using their own money. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction 2009 Unless banks hold less risk and risks are borne by individuals with their own capital, financial cycles will keep getting deeper each time. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 2009 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he did not think it plausible that Homo sapiens would continue indefinitely without a mind arising that exceeds the current upper bound on intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky suggested that if the Earth is destroyed, it will probably be by mistake rather than deliberately. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 Other global risks
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 It is more likely that Friendly AI is solvable but no one will solve it in time than that it is humanly impossible. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 An Artificial Intelligence might increase in intelligence extremely fast. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he thinks Artificial Intelligence is the road we will end up taking into "that challenge", which the surrounding text describes as the way out of the high-mortality phase of the life cycle and probably the single most dangerous risk we face. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 When technology first becomes capable of uploading, it will have overwhelmingly more computing power and probably far better cognitive science than building an AI requires. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he feared regulatory agencies would not approve human experiments, in the context of augmenting human intelligence through biology. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 A superintelligent AI whose goal system operates in an unforeseen fashion may actively resist human attempts to correct it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Michael Burry Prediction 2008 Less leverage and lower returns on assets are now likely for financial institutions. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 Economics and markets
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky doubted that a thousandfold increase in AI hardware would buy anything like a thousandfold increase in effective intelligence, while noting that such doubt is not reliable without an analytical calculation. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he thinks it will prove easier, in the end, to build a 747 from scratch than to scale up an existing bird or graft on jet engines, an analogy he used for building Artificial Intelligence rather than taking another road into the challenge of smarter-than-human intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Own records only Michael Burry Prediction 2008 Burry said that, with only three such contracts remaining in force, he did not expect further meaningful impact on the Funds' portfolios from this sort of trade. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 With molecular nanotechnology, an AI could potentially rewrite the solar system unopposed. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 Other global risks
Mixed Michael Burry Prediction 2008 Burry said he imagined that shares of most of these financial companies would become very boring before they became attractive again. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2008 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Human uploading and upgrading will very probably not be the ground on which humanity first confronts smarter-than-human intelligence. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 An AI might make a huge jump in intelligence after reaching some threshold of criticality. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 An Artificial Intelligence could rewrite its code from scratch and change the underlying dynamics of optimization. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Yudkowsky said he thinks it is possible for fallible humans to succeed at building Friendly AI, but only if intelligence ceases to be a sacred mystery to us. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 There will not necessarily be distant advance warning before AI is created, so it cannot be relied upon. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 In Yudkowsky's opinion at the time, which he said did not rest on a precise calculation using a precisely confirmed theory, sharp jumps in intelligence are possible and likely, and constitute the dominant probability. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2008 Most AI researchers will not want to make unFriendly AIs. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2008 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 If biomass yields double, the land needed for US biofuel falls to 25 million acres. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he was convinced that green technologies can be made cheaper than oil, describing this as his goal while noting he may or may not be successful at it. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Wind power will never scale to more than 10, 15, maybe 20 percent of electricity. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Biomass yields can increase as corn yields have, and biomass can be cultivated sustainably in a polyculture way. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he believed that, once the new fuel technologies are proven, oil companies will be willing and massive participants in this area. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 If newer energy technologies are done poorly, there will be public backlash against them. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 If solar photovoltaics grew 10,000 percent, they would supply about 4 percent of worldwide electricity. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Pricing carbon and requiring carbon capture and sequestration would probably add about 2 cents per kilowatt hour to the cost of coal power, depending on the carbon price. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved false Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Khosla said he believed 50 million acres of US land could supply all US biofuel needs. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Even if Germany switched completely to photovoltaics, climate change's trajectory will not change unless India and China also adopt them. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 There will be a mix of biofuels in the marketplace. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Ethanol will be produced in a way that has a materially positive energy balance and reduces petroleum consumption and greenhouse gases. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Resolved true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 He did not believe clean coal would win in every area, because clean coal technologies would be so expensive that many renewables would come in cheaper. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Over time more people will be willing to pay more for clean energy, a tipping point will be reached, and legislation will then force people to pay more. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 With carbon pricing and capture, coal power would cost between 8 and 10 cents per kilowatt hour. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Carbon capture and sequestration for coal plants will work technically. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Not yet due Vinod Khosla Prediction 28 Sep 2007 Around 2057, the world will probably have moved to all electric cars. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 28 Sep 2007 Technology
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Because no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the financial system when the bubble bursts are likely to be unexpected. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Institutional shift into expensive hedge fund vehicles may lower returns available to existing long-only managers with positive alpha. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Markets are likely to be in for a bumpy ride after April 2007. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The most extreme relative overpricing in coming years should be at the intersection of high-risk and exotic diversification drivers. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The bursting of the bubble will hit all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Global profit margins, currently far above average, will come down. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 The heart of the current bubble is probably private equity. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 In 10 years the current bubble may well be described as the private equity bubble, as 2000 is thought of as the internet bubble. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 For slow-moving managers who do not exit quickly by unloading their company, default will probably be common. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 When the bubble bursts, the Fed and overseas equivalents will move to contain the economic damage, as the Fed did after the 2000 break. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Markets are probably in for an extended period of mispricing, usually favoring trendy assets, with sometimes dramatic reactions. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 U.S. blue chips and U.S. bonds will mostly be priced lower relative to fair value than the trendier newer asset classes. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Michael Burry Prediction 2007 The S&P 500 could easily finish 2008 with a negative return, dragging down crowded value-oriented investment funds. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Large future gains in Berkshire's non-insurance earnings will come only if it makes major, sensible acquisitions. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 An AI project will not succeed merely by implementing a five-layer model of intelligence like the human brain's. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Buffett's 2007 federal and state income taxes will be exactly what they would have been had he not made his 2007 charitable contributions. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 The decline in Buffalo News profits will almost certainly continue. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 A deliberately designed AI is likely to begin as a set of subsystems in a primitive, undeveloped state already designed to form a functioning supersystem. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Berkshire is likely to continue earning significant overall profits from mispriced derivatives despite occasional losses. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2007 The cumulative decisions made in close cases between violence and peace may determine the destiny of the postmodern world. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Americans will live better ten or twenty years after 2007 than they do today, despite the unwise course of U.S. borrowing. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 Yudkowsky conjectured that matching imagery against large concept sets will be one of the most computationally intensive subprocesses in AI, perhaps the most expensive subprocess. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 Cautiously considering what a more foresightful and less accretive design for intelligence might look like, Yudkowsky suggested that in an AI the center of gravity of intelligence, the process humans observe through their internal narrative, would probably become the central supersystem of the mind, to an even greater degree than in humans. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 As U.S. trade problems worsen, the dollar is highly likely to weaken over time. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2007 The modern age will not be permanent and will ultimately give way to something very different. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2007 In the long run, power and prosperity may go to those who follow Locke's capitalist rules, leaving religious fanatics without the wealth and technology to threaten the nonreligious West. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Berkshire's business performance will determine its stock price, and most of the time the stock will sell in a zone of reasonableness. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2007 One day all will be revealed, all injustices exposed, and perpetrators held to account. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 Early-stage AIs will likely be less adept than humans at visualizing concepts only as far as needed, and so may need full visualizations where humans use abstract reasoning. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2007 The postmodern world could differ from the modern world in a way that is much worse or much better. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 The distinction between sharp, fragile human-written code and smooth biological computation is unlikely to be erased by programmer effort or new programming languages. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Berkshire's results from its bread-and-butter insurance lines will deteriorate in 2007, though Buffett said he thought they would remain satisfactory. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Berkshire's insurance operations will periodically have bad years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Buffett said he believed Berkshire's other insurance operations would clear the underwriting-gain hurdle needed for overall float to be cost-free in many, if not most, years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Executive compensation reform will occur only if the largest institutional shareholders demand a fresh look at the whole system. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 Software-level parallelism, poorly handled by present-day languages, will likely be one of the greatest challenges in AI development. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Buffett's thinking about the disposition of his Berkshire shares is very unlikely to change in a material way. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 The math of the 2-and-20 fee arrangement is certain to make investors poorer over time than they would have been without it. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Buffett said he believed that at some point in the future U.S. workers and voters would find the annual "tribute" paid abroad so onerous that there would be a severe political backlash. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The housing bust will trigger an economy-wide US recession in 2007. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 There is going to be a huge glut. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 US real home prices will fall 20 to 30 percent over the next three years or so, from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US housing market will have its biggest bust in decades. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 Foreign buyers purchasing US property in dollars will suffer currency capital losses as the dollar weakens against the euro and other currencies. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 Speculative housing demand will now disappear because prices are flattening and falling. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 US national real home prices may fall 20 to 30 percent. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction Sep 2006 US home prices would fall at least 20% and housing starts and demand at least 50% in the worst housing recession since the Great Depression. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Prediction 10 Apr 2006 US public noise to scare Iran will not work, and the US might then feel it must attack to preserve credibility. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Prediction 10 Apr 2006 Iranians might regard a secret US signal as a trick and ignore it. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 10 Apr 2006 Other global risks
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 2006 The housing bust would lead to a banking and financial crisis as homeowners defaulted on mortgages and banks failed. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Michael Burry Prediction 2006 Rising delinquencies and defaults will continue to push delinquency-to-credit-support ratios higher on the subprime tranches Scion is short. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Own records only Michael Burry Prediction 2006 Burry expected that, in the worst case, his fund's mortgage short would fully amortize to nil value over the next three years, at an average annual cost of carry of roughly six percent of current assets under management. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2006 Their own work or organisation
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Peter Thiel

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Prediction Other

“To my mind, the questions about whether people will live there (answer: enough will) are secondary to the questions about whether seasteading technology is imminent.”

Peter Thiel, essay author 13 April 2009 The Education of a Libertarian (Cato Unbound)

Enough people will live on seasteads (settlements on the oceans).

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

'Enough people' is undefined and there is no horizon.

Cite this claim

Peter Thiel, “Enough people will live on seasteads (settlements on the oceans).” (said 13 April 2009). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_e2c982ca6442, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e2c982ca6442

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.