2,625 claims · page 21 of 27
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own records only | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that he would not score at or above the 95th percentile when he got his 2017 PRITE scores back. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Donald Trump will still be President at the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other |
| Own records only | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Scott Alexander will attend the Bay Area Solstice in the coming year (2017). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | A significant number of EMDrive skeptics will not become convinced it works during 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Science and research methods |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | No earthquake in the US will cause more than 100 deaths in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | There is an 80% chance that construction on the Mexican border wall, beyond existing barriers, will begin in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | There will be no revolt against the Chinese Communist Party of Tiananmen Square scale or greater in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other global risks |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | No announcement of a genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for one will occur in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that by the end of 2017 SSC would have no co-bloggers with more than 5 posts. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Scott Alexander will pass his Boards in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that fewer refugees would be admitted in 2017 than in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Scott Alexander will finish a long FAQ in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | The US will not withdraw from a large trade organisation like the WTO or NAFTA in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 1 Jan 2017 | Sam Altman said he expected that someday, when the history of YC is written, people will talk about its software as one of its secret weapons. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 1 Jan 2017 | The trend of the companies described keeping their data, computation and hiring advantages and buying promising startups is unlikely to reverse without antitrust action. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 1 Jan 2017 | In 2017 the total valuation of companies that have gone through YC will surpass $100 billion, absent a macroeconomic meltdown. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 1 Jan 2017 | Sam Altman said he expected YC's flagship program to significantly strengthen over the course of 2017 and beyond. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 1 Jan 2017 | Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple and Microsoft will continue to do many things well, hold data and computation advantages, attract many top engineers, and aggressively buy promising startups. Sam Altman · Prediction · 1 Jan 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Grantham said that, unless there were substantial unexpected negatives, this did seem to make the odds of a major market decline in the near future quite low, adding "famous last words?". Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Trump is likely to settle for a moderate reduction in corporate tax rates in 2017 rather than a full redo of the tax code. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Grantham's outlook for the S&P 500, proposed in October 2016 at 2.8% real per year for 20 years, has fallen to 2.3% real per year at recent higher prices. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Grantham suggests that this reason for lower demand for capital and lower real rates will probably take a few decades to fade away, not the usual seven-year average regression period for financial ratios. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Unless there are substantial unexpected negatives, US corporate margins will be up in 2017. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2017 | Events now beginning under the Trump administration will be taught in history classes in a negative light. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2017 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | A corporate tax reduction will raise corporate profits for quite a while above where they otherwise would have been. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Ørsted | Prediction | 2017 | DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Changing the central bank policy of low rates is unlikely to be quick or easy, given 20 years of Fed support and adherents at the ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Grantham prefers his suggestion of a 20-year limping regression that takes us two-thirds of the way back to the good old days pre-1997. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Grantham predicts that any effect of lower population growth rates on interest rates will take even longer than a few decades to fade. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Prediction | 2017 | Agrees with Kellyanne Conway that Trump is a man of action who is just getting started. Sam Altman · Prediction · 2017 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Three factors are moving in favor of US profit margins in 2017, including oil and resource prices, which appear to have bottomed out and seem likely to compare favorably, and a likely moderate cut in corporate tax rates. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Asking whether "it" would be quick enough to drag corporate margins back toward normal in the next 10 or 15 years, Grantham suggested not holding one's breath. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Grantham expects income inequality to take decades to move materially unless there is an unexpected near revolution in politics. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Grantham thinks interest rates lower than those before 1997 are likely to persist for years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Grantham says productivity would need unexpected good fortune to accelerate enough to push interest rates up in the near term. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Ørsted | Prediction | 2017 | With 1.2GW capacity, Hornsea 1 will be the world's largest offshore wind farm when commissioned in 2020, and DONG Energy's biggest investment ever. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Oil and resource prices appeared to have bottomed out in 2016 and seem likely to have favorable comparisons for a few quarters. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | 2017 | Removing regulations here and there will lower corporate costs in the short term. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | Worldwide regulatory approval of self-driving will require on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km) of driving data. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice 89 million miles, i.e. over 178 million miles. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | A vehicle cheaper than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary for Tesla. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | Adding cars to a Tesla shared fleet will lower the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | Refinement and validation of self-driving software will take much longer than installing the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | Tesla believes the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport while increasing safety. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | The economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a non-self-driving car. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | With autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink buses and turn bus drivers into fleet managers. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | When regulators approve true self-driving, Tesla owners will be able to summon their Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 20 Jul 2016 | A first-principles physics analysis suggests that a 5 to 10 fold improvement in automotive production is achievable by version 3 of Tesla's factory machine, on a roughly 2-year iteration cycle. Elon Musk · Prediction · 20 Jul 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that UNSONG would get fewer hits than Slate Star Codex in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Marco Rubio will not win the 2016 Republican nomination. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | There will be no earthquake in the world killing more than 10,000 people in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that the US would not get involved in any new major war with a death toll above 100 US soldiers in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Donald Trump would win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Own records only | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander will score at or above the 95th percentile on next year's PRITE (psychiatry in-training exam). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | No major war in Asia (over 100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean and American deaths combined) over disputed islands will occur in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | The European far right will make modest but not spectacular gains in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Syria's civil war would not end in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Mostly true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that there would be no major intifada in Israel in 2016 (over 250 Israeli deaths, excluding a Cast Lead style war). Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | SpaceX will successfully launch a reused rocket in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Technology |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander will be involved in at least one published or accepted research paper by the end of 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic nomination. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that there would be no Cast Lead style bombing or invasion of Gaza in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Republicans will keep the House in the 2016 elections. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Research failed | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | The occupation of the Oregon ranger station will end in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Assad would remain President of Syria. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander will not stop using Twitter, Tumblr, or Facebook in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that ISIS would control less territory at the end of 2016 than it did in January 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | No announcement of a genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for one will occur in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Biosecurity |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Oil will end 2016 lower than $40 a barrel. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander will still be at his current job at the end of 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Michael Bloomberg will not run for President in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Republicans will keep control of the US Senate after the 2016 elections. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander will finish a long FAQ in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Libya would remain a mess. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that Israel would not get into a large-scale war (over 100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Slate Star Codex will remain active through 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that no terrorist attack in the USA would kill more than 100 people in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Greece would not announce in 2016 that it was leaving the euro. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | US unemployment will be lower at the end of 2016 than at the beginning. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that North Korea's government would survive 2016 without a large civil war or revolt. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Own records only | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Scott Alexander will attend at least one Solstice event in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 25 Jan 2016 | Nobody important will change their mind much about the EMDrive based on information found in 2016. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 | Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | U.S. fracking oil will soon run off, revealing rising costs of finding ever-diminishing new oil pools. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Grantham guessed that the price of oil would be as high as $100 a barrel again within five years. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | The shift to alternative fuels (electric vehicles, storage, climate policy, carbon taxes) is likely to cause oil's final paradigm shift. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | A 60% stock/40% bond portfolio would be lucky to deliver 3% a year even if current high P/Es and above-normal margins were locked in. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | In 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices might beat the U.S. equity market in causing the next financial crisis. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Bill Ackman | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Pershing Square did not believe the events that hit Valeant in 2015 would permanently impair Valeant's intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as discussed in Paris, will not be achieved. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | Jan 2016 | At current asset inflow rates, index funds will effectively control Corporate America and many foreign countries' corporations before long. Bill Ackman · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Grantham believes food faces long-term intractable problems that will threaten political stability around the world, deep into the future. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | A quick or dramatic recovery in demand for metals is unlikely. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Jeremy Grantham | Prediction | Jan 2016 | Oil stocks should do well over the next five years, perhaps regaining much of their losses. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Jan 2016 | Economics and markets |
“I will not have scored 95th percentile or above when I get this year’s PRITE scores back: 60%”
Scott Alexander, blogger 6 January 2017 Predictions For 2017 (Slate Star Codex)
Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that he would not score at or above the 95th percentile when he got his 2017 PRITE scores back.
Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.
Reasoning
Private exam score only he would know.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that he would not score at or above the 95th percentile when he got his 2017 PRITE scores back.” (said 6 January 2017). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_9781f7734a6e, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9781f7734a6e
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.