2,625 claims · page 20 of 27
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own records only | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Slate Star Codex would get more hits in 2018 than in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | Jan 2018 | Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that the first Falcon Heavy launch would not be successful. Scott Alexander · Prediction · Jan 2018 | Technology |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | There will not be a 'Truckpocalypse' before 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 2018 | If housing finance reform is successful, FNMA and FMCC common and preferred stock will likely be worth multiples of their current share prices. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 | Economics and markets |
| Mixed | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 2018 | Nike's historical high-single-digit annual revenue growth rate is likely to continue. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | Two or three competing companies will offer low-level space tourism by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 2018 | Pershing Square expected continued acceleration in revenue growth, double-digit EPS growth and clarity on Mr. Van de Put's strategy to cause MDLZ's valuation to rise to levels approaching intrinsic value. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 2018 | If PAH shares traded at a valuation comparable to competitors and the company achieved analyst earnings estimates, they would be worth more than $19, nearly 75% above current levels. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | He gave an 80% probability that by 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 2018 | Over time, QSR should be able to successfully execute additional value-creating acquisitions. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | The European Union will not collapse by 2023. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 2018 | ADP's delivery on its proxy-contest commitments, together with tax reform and rising interest rates, will drive a significant increase in ADP's earnings. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved false | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 2018 | If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 2018 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 2018 | If ADP's Employer Services growth rises to ~7%+ and margins to 35% or greater, ADP would earn ~$10 of EPS by FY2022, more than double current earnings. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 2018 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 5 Oct 2017 | By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 5 Oct 2017 | By the 2030s, humans will connect their neocortex to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 5 Oct 2017 | Humans will be able to meet the physical needs of all humans and expand their minds through technology. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 5 Oct 2017 | The Singularity will occur in 2045, when humans multiply their effective intelligence a billion fold by merging with the AI they created. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 5 Oct 2017 | An AI will pass a valid Turing test and achieve human levels of intelligence in 2029, the date Kurzweil has consistently predicted. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 5 Oct 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Satya Nadella | Prediction | Oct 2017 | The automobile will have more compute power than most computers. Satya Nadella · Prediction · Oct 2017 | Technology |
| Mostly true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 12 Sep 2017 | The US corporate tax rate in the eventual tax legislation will probably be about 23%. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 12 Sep 2017 | Algorithms will become part of people's lives. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 12 Sep 2017 | Radical transparency will increasingly affect people and cannot be avoided. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 12 Sep 2017 | US economic growth is probably around 2.5% a year in the current environment. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 12 Sep 2017 | The Trump administration's anticipated tax and economic changes will probably be enacted in a watered-down version. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 12 Sep 2017 | Dalio expects a slow, increasing squeeze, while saying that current cash flows can support debts for the time being. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 12 Sep 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 7 Sep 2017 | AI will most likely be underestimated in the long term. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 7 Sep 2017 | People will still be in the loop worrying about physical wiring of robotics and AI systems for decades to come. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 7 Sep 2017 | Widespread deployment of self-driving cars will take decades, not years. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 7 Sep 2017 | Long before any evil super-intelligent machines arise, less intelligent and belligerent machines will appear first. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 7 Sep 2017 | A program smart enough to subvert human society to achieve human-set goals without understanding the problems it causes will never exist in the real world. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 | AI safety and alignment |
| Not yet due | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 7 Sep 2017 | Real deployment of self-driving cars could come four, five or six decades after 1987. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 7 Sep 2017 | Exponential growth in the number of users of social platforms such as Facebook or Twitter will eventually turn into an S-curve because the number of potential users is finite. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 7 Sep 2017 | Because many of the non-self-driving cars bought today will likely still be on the road in 2040, this puts an inherent limit on how soon all cars will be self-driving. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 7 Sep 2017 | If super-intelligent machines are eventually built, their existence will not come as a sudden surprise; they will evolve gradually. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 7 Sep 2017 | Some of large companies' marketing messages about their AI offerings may cause very bad blowback for them in the not too distant future. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 7 Sep 2017 | Brooks said he thinks that mathematical provability is a vain hope, adding that we won't be able to prove very much at all about large AI systems. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 7 Sep 2017 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 21 Jul 2017 | Solving biology might turn out to be an exponentially complicated combinatorial problem or be limited by data and experiment. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 21 Jul 2017 | A really powerful AI might be unable to understand macroeconomic systems due to data limits yet still be able to design a better one. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 21 Jul 2017 | Machines could probably make progress in biology pretty fast, though there is huge uncertainty. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 | Biosecurity |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 21 Jul 2017 | Amodei said he is optimistic that researchers will gain a better understanding of transparency inside neural nets. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 | AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 21 Jul 2017 | Solving resource constraints through AI will not by itself solve war. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 21 Jul 2017 | Pure rule-based systems will not work for building AGI. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 21 Jul 2017 | Artificial general intelligence will eventually be developed. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 21 Jul 2017 | There may be more than a 50% chance that, as AI gets closer to AGI, it becomes clear how to make it safe. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 21 Jul 2017 | AI safety and alignment |
| Not yet due | Nassim Taleb | Prediction | 10 Jul 2017 | A book that is interesting today and would have been interesting 20 years ago will probably still be interesting 20 years from now. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 10 Jul 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Nassim Taleb | Prediction | 10 Jul 2017 | A Broadway show that has run 300 days is likely to run about 300 additional days, 600 in total (Lindy effect). Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 10 Jul 2017 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Jeff Bezos | Prediction | 17 Apr 2017 | An established company in Day 2 might coast for decades, but eventual decline would still come. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 17 Apr 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jeff Bezos | Prediction | 17 Apr 2017 | Much of the impact of machine learning will be less visible, quietly improving core operations. Jeff Bezos · Prediction · 17 Apr 2017 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 15 Mar 2017 | Future technology will let humanity meet the physical needs of all humans. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 15 Mar 2017 | By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 15 Mar 2017 | By the 2030s, humans will connect their neocortex to the cloud. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 15 Mar 2017 | The merging of computers with human intelligence is already here in part and will accelerate. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 15 Mar 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | Mar 2017 | Kurzweil expressed optimism, which he said Dormehl shares, that we will be able to deploy AI as brain extenders to keep ahead of the economic curve of accelerating progress. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · Mar 2017 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 27 Feb 2017 | Buffett guessed that the company he was discussing had about 5.25 billion shares outstanding, and that ten years later it would have substantially fewer. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Mostly true | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 27 Feb 2017 | Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 27 Feb 2017 | Buffett said he thought the US economy would be better off four years from February 2017, even though he disagreed with some specific policies. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 27 Feb 2017 | The Dow will certainly approach 100,000 within the lifetime of the person addressed, requiring only that the American system keeps functioning much as it has. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 27 Feb 2017 | The odds are very high that any US administration ends up with the economy better four years later than at present. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 27 Feb 2017 | Buffett guessed that there would be another deal involving Kraft Heinz at some point, and said he did not know when. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 27 Feb 2017 | The odds are good that the US will have economic prosperity in any given four-year period. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Warren Buffett | Prediction | 27 Feb 2017 | Buffett said he would bet the Berkshire employee bracket contest would go over 100,000 entries in 2017, after 85,000 entries in 2016. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Self-parking cars will take up much less room than human-parked cars, so there will be an economic incentive to develop garages where such cars are tightly packed. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | At some point every car will be level 5 autonomous and people will no longer be allowed to drive. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | No robot or perception system today, or in the foreseeable future, can determine the state of the world well enough to know which of Asimov's laws applies. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | The day when all cars are level 5 and manual driving is gone will not be soon, and flying cars will come even later. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Reasonable level 4 systems will be technically possible in the not too distant future, but social issues will keep their domains of operation rather restricted. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Brooks guessed that deaths involving driverless cars will never come close to the high numbers of deaths that society has accepted for human-driven cars. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Autonomous delivery vehicles may be deployed case by case in not too many years, but it will be a long time before they are close to universal as a means of delivery. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Autonomous trucks will convoy behind a single human-occupied truck in designated highway lanes, with humans required in each truck off the highway. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Level 4 autonomous cars will operate in limited geographic domains with no pedestrians or other human drivers. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | The public will push back against level 5 and widespread level 4 autonomy during trials and early deployments. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Moral dilemma questions for self-driving cars (trolley-problem type) will have no practical impact on any car or person for the foreseeable future. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Deployment of level 4 autonomy will be slower than technology enthusiasts expect, led by various special cases. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Early in the transition to driverless cars, wealthy owners will have a new way to alienate the rest of society. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Schools will push back against owners using self-driving cars to pick up children early, but people will still try it. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Arguing about these questions will not have any practical impact or lead to practical regulations about what can or cannot go into automobiles. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Ten autonomous-car deaths per year in the US may be deemed unacceptable even though it would be 34,990 fewer deaths. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | We will not have cars that can tell nuns from robbers, a point made right after saying that robot perception today and in the foreseeable future cannot work out the state of the world well enough. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Level 5 autonomy over large geographical areas is a long time away. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Before long, grocery store parking lots, especially in storms, will be filled with improperly parked self-driving cars waiting for their owners. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Society will delay adopting level 4 and 5 autonomy, at the cost of more lives lost, rather than accept many deaths caused by autonomous driving systems. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Rodney Brooks | Prediction | 12 Jan 2017 | Level 4 autonomy may appear on some delivery vehicles in dense urban environments. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 12 Jan 2017 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Assad will remain President of Syria through 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other global risks |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | North Korea's government will survive 2017 without a large civil war or revolt. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other global risks |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Donald Trump's approval rating at the end of 2017 will be lower than fifty percent. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | The UK will trigger Article 50 in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | The subject gave an 80% probability that no country currently in the Euro or EU would announce a new plan to leave in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other |
| Mixed | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other global risks |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | There will be no interesting progress with Gaza or peace negotiations in general in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other global risks |
| Own records only | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Scott Alexander will take the job he is currently expecting to take. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% during 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Economics and markets |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Slate Star Codex will remain active through 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Scott Alexander gave a 50% probability that he would be involved in at least one published or accepted-to-publish research paper by the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other |
| Mixed | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | ISIS will no longer exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 6 Jan 2017 | Scott Alexander gave a 50% probability that he would get at least one article published on a major site such as Huffington Post, Vox or New Statesman in 2017. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 | Their own work or organisation |
“SSC gets more hits in 2018 than in 2017: 80%”
Scott Alexander, blogger January 2018 2018 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex)
Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Slate Star Codex would get more hits in 2018 than in 2017.
Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.
Reasoning
Blog hit counts are internal traffic data not routinely published.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Slate Star Codex would get more hits in 2018 than in 2017.” (said January 2018). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_f6d62d946792, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f6d62d946792
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.