2,572 claims · page 2 of 26
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not yet due | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | A civil war in Britain is probably about 20 years away. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | Elon Musk guessed that China's electricity production will reach about four times that of the U.S., which he said is roughly in proportion to population. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | Other |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | Elon Musk said he thinks that in the future taxation becomes somewhat irrelevant. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | AI will become better than 99% of professional software engineers at writing software. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Not yet due | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | On a timescale of less than 10 years, AI and robots will dominate everything in terms of big macro effects. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | The AI robot singularity is 10 years away. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | The AI robotics revolution will happen sooner than a civil war in Britain. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | Musk's guess is that AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in roughly five years (around 2031). Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | AI will be able to do any job better than any person can do that job. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | Money won't matter in 2036. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | Around five years from now there will be nothing AI cannot do better than humans, apart from being human. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | The most likely outcome of advanced AI is an age of abundance where anyone can have anything they can think of. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | Ukraine will not retake the territories held by Russia. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | Elon Musk said he thinks work is going to be optional. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | Musk said he would expect that in 10 years (by 2036) artificial intelligence will be far greater than the sum of human intelligence. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | Musk said he thinks SpaceX's spending on bases on the moon and Mars would ultimately have a very high return on investment, though it would cost a lot of money in the short term. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | Elon Musk predicted that deflation, not inflation, will be the issue, because the output of goods and services will grow faster than the money supply. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Elon Musk | Prediction | 27 Jul 2026 | Long-term growth of people who do not share, or in some cases are adamantly opposed to, Western values sets a country up for civil war. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jul 2026 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 29 Jun 2026 | She said nobody knows, but her guess is that software developers will still exist, though they will not write as much code. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 29 Jun 2026 | She said she thinks the share of software developers' non-coding work (such as talking to product managers and customers) will expand, while work that can be more easily done by AI will contract. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 29 Jun 2026 | Claude's ability to help overwhelmed parents will be really powerful. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 29 Jun 2026 | AI-driven job displacement will become a social and political issue. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 29 Jun 2026 | As AI does more day-to-day productive work, human interpersonal skills will become much more important and prized. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 29 Jun 2026 | AI is going to get really good at the work being discussed. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 29 Jun 2026 | Daniela Amodei said that she and her colleagues think artificial intelligence will create a lot of economic value. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 29 Jun 2026 | AI will change which types of jobs are available and what jobs people do. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 29 Jun 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 4 Jun 2026 | Because people define AGI differently, there will be a roughly three-year period (around 2026 to 2029) in which people predict AGI is here. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Ray Kurzweil | Prediction | 4 Jun 2026 | AI will merge with humans so that people cannot tell whether a thought comes from their AI or their biological brain. Ray Kurzweil · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Satya Nadella | Prediction | 4 Jun 2026 | The biggest value proposition of a Windows machine in the enterprise will be unmetered intelligence. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Satya Nadella | Prediction | 4 Jun 2026 | OpenAI may go public and become a trillion-dollar company. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Satya Nadella | Prediction | 4 Jun 2026 | In future, firms will have both human capital and token capital, and will need their own hill-climbing machine for the token capital. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Satya Nadella | Prediction | 4 Jun 2026 | Licensing MAI models through Microsoft Foundry will grow Foundry revenue. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 4 Jun 2026 | She guessed that over time the core companies advancing the AI frontier will need access to capital, and said she thinks public markets are very well suited to that. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 4 Jun 2026 | She expects current AI use cases such as coding, financial services, legal and health care to continue to be the primary driver of efficiency or creativity. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Satya Nadella | Prediction | 4 Jun 2026 | Once software is priced by consumption, customers will optimize their usage. Satya Nadella · Prediction · 4 Jun 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 2 Jun 2026 | AI companies will overpay for their investments relative to the modest profits they will make in an intensely competitive market. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2 Jun 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 2 Jun 2026 | How people think about the personal computer will very likely change. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 2 Jun 2026 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 2 Jun 2026 | Retail investors and retirement funds are likely to be taken advantage of in all of this, which he said might fall apart because the economics don't make sense. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2 Jun 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 2 Jun 2026 | Huang relayed that someone had told him the night before that Taiwan's annual GDP is going to grow almost 10% this year (2026). Jensen Huang · Prediction · 2 Jun 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 2 Jun 2026 | There will be so many AI agents that the world will no longer be limited by the number of people. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 2 Jun 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 2 Jun 2026 | With no clear winners in AI, nobody can charge monopoly prices and there will be price wars and commodity pricing. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2 Jun 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 2 Jun 2026 | Retail investors and retirement funds will be taken advantage of in the same way with Anthropic and OpenAI. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2 Jun 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 2 Jun 2026 | The agentic computing pattern (model, harness, tools, skills, runtime) will repeat across many computing contexts. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 2 Jun 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Prediction | 2 Jun 2026 | No AI company will take 90% of the AI market if there is no moat. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2 Jun 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 2 Jun 2026 | In the future the agentic computing pattern will run on robots, satellites, base stations and factories, in the cloud, on-prem and at the edge. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 2 Jun 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 2 Jun 2026 | The memory system of AI agents will cause storage systems to be completely revolutionized. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 2 Jun 2026 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 1 Jun 2026 | There will be billions of AI agents using CPUs, compared with about 1 billion humans, and these agents will use the CPUs with very little patience. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 1 Jun 2026 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 1 Jun 2026 | The market for CPUs for agents will surely be larger than the market for CPUs for humans. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 1 Jun 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 1 Jun 2026 | Every company will be an agent company. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 1 Jun 2026 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 1 Jun 2026 | AI will run everywhere, every company will be powered by it, and every region will build it. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 1 Jun 2026 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 1 Jun 2026 | AI agents will create the largest opportunity ever for NVIDIA's partners and friends. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 1 Jun 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 1 Jun 2026 | Vera will be the most optimized agentic CPU in the world. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 1 Jun 2026 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 1 Jun 2026 | Software applications will be replaced by an agentic runtime, with agents as the modern application. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 1 Jun 2026 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 1 Jun 2026 | Huang said he was pretty certain that over time there will be tens of billions to hundreds of billions of agentic systems running around the world. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 1 Jun 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Mostly true | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 1 Jun 2026 | Adobe has re-engineered the core of Photoshop and Premiere and will release it for RTX Spark. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 1 Jun 2026 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 1 Jun 2026 | The Vera CPU will be NVIDIA's new major growth driver. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 1 Jun 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 1 Jun 2026 | The reliability and resilience of Vera Rubin will be exceptional. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 1 Jun 2026 | AI compute, hardware and data |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 9 May 2026 | Her guess is that software developers will still be around in future but will not write as much code. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 9 May 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 9 May 2026 | Interest rates will rise, hurting markets, and central banks will print money, devaluing it and creating stagflation. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 9 May 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Not yet due | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 9 May 2026 | Republicans will probably lose control of the US House in the 2026 midterm elections. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 9 May 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 9 May 2026 | Dalio said he thinks that over the next five years there will be huge changes as five forces, which the quoted passage does not name, come together, and that afterwards things will be almost unrecognizable. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 9 May 2026 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 9 May 2026 | The development under discussion can be a major productivity enhancer that may perhaps help mitigate a number of debt problems. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 9 May 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 9 May 2026 | Political and social conflict in the US will intensify between the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 9 May 2026 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 9 May 2026 | AI will become very good at medical diagnosis. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 9 May 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 9 May 2026 | AI will replace a lot of jobs. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 9 May 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 9 May 2026 | Dalio said he does not think any of the fiat currencies will be effective stores of wealth. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 9 May 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 9 May 2026 | Dalio said he does not think China will end up being the classic hegemon. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 9 May 2026 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 9 May 2026 | The US will enter a period of greater disorder from a confluence of monetary, domestic social/political and international order pressures. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 9 May 2026 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 9 May 2026 | Dalio said he very much doubts that China, or Chinese debt, will be a serious store of wealth, citing China's history of not protecting wealth. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 9 May 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Ray Dalio | Prediction | 9 May 2026 | A coming financial crisis will leave the US with very limited capacity to spend. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 9 May 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Daniela Amodei | Prediction | 9 May 2026 | AI will change the types of jobs available and how people work. Daniela Amodei · Prediction · 9 May 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Ørsted | Prediction | 6 May 2026 | Commissioning of Greater Changhua 2b and 4 offshore wind farms in Taiwan remains on track for the third quarter of 2026. Ørsted · Prediction · 6 May 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Ørsted | Prediction | 6 May 2026 | Ørsted will significantly increase its power generation throughout 2026 as its offshore construction projects are delivered. Ørsted · Prediction · 6 May 2026 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Ørsted | Prediction | 6 May 2026 | Offshore wind and other renewables deployed at scale can deliver secure, green energy and significantly lower total system costs for households and businesses. Ørsted · Prediction · 6 May 2026 | Technology |
| Not yet due | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 29 Apr 2026 | Zuckerberg expects 2026 to be a key period for establishing AI agents as the way people use AI. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 29 Apr 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Mark Zuckerberg | Prediction | 29 Apr 2026 | Zuckerberg said he believes the future will see a massive increase in entrepreneurship from people creating new things they have always wanted to exist but previously did not have the tools to bring into the world. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 29 Apr 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Demis Hassabis | Prediction | 10 Apr 2026 | Within 50 years, AI-enabled abundance could lead to human flourishing, cured diseases, longer healthier lives and travel to the stars. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 10 Apr 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not yet due | Demis Hassabis | Prediction | 10 Apr 2026 | Science-fiction developments such as asteroid mining become very plausible in the next 50 years. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 10 Apr 2026 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Prediction | 10 Apr 2026 | There could be unique things, and unique connections between humans, that AI systems will never replicate. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 10 Apr 2026 | Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Prediction | 10 Apr 2026 | Hassabis thinks the types of technologies behind the drug programs his team is working on should eventually be able to help across almost every therapeutic area. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 10 Apr 2026 | Science and research methods |
| Not yet due | Demis Hassabis | Prediction | 10 Apr 2026 | Within 50 years, humanity could get safely through the AGI moment, with AGI built and helpful to society. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 10 Apr 2026 | AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Prediction | 10 Apr 2026 | There will be a solution to the energy problem: nearly free, clean, renewable energy via fusion or better solar. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 10 Apr 2026 | Technology |
| Unresolvable | Demis Hassabis | Prediction | 7 Apr 2026 | A young person could probably start a multi-billion-dollar business using current AI tools in a new way. Demis Hassabis · Prediction · 7 Apr 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Nouriel Roubini | Prediction | Apr 2026 | Technological advances such as AI will drive the world economy over the next 10 to 20 years, regardless of geopolitics, climate change or populism, and will be positive for the world. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · Apr 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Marc Andreessen | Prediction | 31 Mar 2026 | Fears of AI-driven mass labor displacement, based on the lump of labor fallacy, will again prove wrong. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 31 Mar 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Jim Cramer | Prediction | 30 Mar 2026 | The stock market is going down, as Cramer said in his weekend piece. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 30 Mar 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Bill Ackman | Prediction | 30 Mar 2026 | The war, which Ackman described as one of the most one-sided in history, will end well for the U.S. and the world. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 30 Mar 2026 | Other global risks |
| Unresolvable | Jim Cramer | Prediction | 27 Mar 2026 | Oil prices will eventually lead stock index futures lower. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 27 Mar 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jim Cramer | Prediction | 26 Mar 2026 | Nasdaq futures could be down at least .75 on the night of the remark, which is dated 2026-03-26, given the very big run-up in oil from its bottom. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 26 Mar 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jim Cramer | Prediction | 25 Mar 2026 | Small and medium-sized businesses will be the savior when AI takes away a lot of jobs. Jim Cramer · Prediction · 25 Mar 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 24 Mar 2026 | If capital gains and ordinary income tax rates were equalized, the change could be tax neutral and remove 125 million people from the tax roll, with anyone making $100,000 or less paying no taxes. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 24 Mar 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Not yet due | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 24 Mar 2026 | A project to build a free AI doctor with more expertise than any doctor is doable within the next two to three years. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 24 Mar 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 24 Mar 2026 | AI will cause massive job dislocation. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 24 Mar 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 24 Mar 2026 | In the next few years there will be very few things AI won't be able to do. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 24 Mar 2026 | AI capabilities |
| Unresolvable | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 24 Mar 2026 | AI will favor capital over labor in the capital-versus-labor contest. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 24 Mar 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Vinod Khosla | Prediction | 24 Mar 2026 | Khosla said he believes fear of AI will be the single biggest issue in the 2028 US presidential election. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 24 Mar 2026 | AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 17 Mar 2026 | Tokens, as a new commodity, will be priced in tiers once the market matures. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 17 Mar 2026 | Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 17 Mar 2026 | In the future, every engineer in a company will have an annual token budget. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 17 Mar 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 17 Mar 2026 | Every SaaS company will transform into an Agentic-as-a-Service company providing domain-specific AI agents. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 17 Mar 2026 | AI, the economy and work |
| Not yet due | Jensen Huang | Prediction | 17 Mar 2026 | NVIDIA's DSX digital twin system could improve data center energy efficiency by about 2 times, by conservative estimate. Jensen Huang · Prediction · 17 Mar 2026 | AI compute, hardware and data |
“I would say civil war in Britain is probably 20 years away.”
Elon Musk, interviewee 27 July 2026 Elon Musk The Economist July 23rd 2026 - Full Interview Transcript (Sozai)
A civil war in Britain is probably about 20 years away.
Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.
Reasoning
deadline 2046 is after 2026-11-04
Cite this claim
Elon Musk, “A civil war in Britain is probably about 20 years away.” (said 27 July 2026). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_1418f73c1dc4, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_1418f73c1dc4
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.