Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,625 claims · page 18 of 27

2,625 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2020 By the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2020 Grantham's bet was that over the next few quarters from 2020, earnings and profit margins would be crushed. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly false Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2020 During the depressed earnings phase, market P/E ratios will be pulled down, giving a lower multiple of substantially lower earnings. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2020 It is nearly certain that a V-shaped economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis looks like a lost hope. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jeremy Grantham Prediction 2020 U.S. unemployment will reach up to 20% for at least a moment. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 31 Dec 2019 Virtual reality will be Facebook's next big act. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 31 Dec 2019 Technology
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 30 Dec 2019 A Minsky Moment (financial crisis) is unlikely in China; instead its growth will slow steadily. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 30 Dec 2019 Economics and markets
Not yet due Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 30 Dec 2019 Startup cities will be a major trend of the 2020s. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 30 Dec 2019 Economics and markets
Not yet due Nassim Taleb Prediction 29 Dec 2019 The probability that any of the books shown in the linked post, except perhaps Dalrymple's and Murakami's, will survive a decade is very small. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 29 Dec 2019 Other
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 29 Dec 2019 Subscription-funded media will increase polarization more than ad-supported media does. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 29 Dec 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 28 Dec 2019 Private property will become private keys, i.e. ownership will be held via cryptographic keys. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 28 Dec 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 27 Dec 2019 Virtual reality will allow people to opt out of modern society and return to previous time periods. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 27 Dec 2019 Technology
Unresolvable Nassim Taleb Prediction 26 Dec 2019 Preliminary entropy-based genetic maps might change how distances between populations and rates of inbreeding are viewed. Nassim Taleb · Prediction · 26 Dec 2019 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 24 Dec 2019 Elon Musk will get humanity to Mars. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 24 Dec 2019 Technology
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 24 Dec 2019 Over time Trump will damage US alliances and weaken US soft and hard power, making China stronger. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 24 Dec 2019 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Prediction 23 Dec 2019 The world seems to have turned a corner on coal, so the high-emissions RCP8.5 climate scenario may be avoided. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 23 Dec 2019 Other global risks
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 22 Dec 2019 Good telemedicine giving 3-5 medical opinions within minutes will allow testing of inter-rater agreement among physicians using Fleiss' kappa or a similar metric. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 22 Dec 2019 Science and research methods
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 14 Nov 2019 Artificial general intelligence will probably not be achieved within five to 10 years of 2019. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Nov 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 14 Nov 2019 Gary Marcus guessed that artificial general intelligence would arrive somewhere between 20 and 100 years from 2019, maybe closer to 50, and said this was a wide confidence interval. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Nov 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 14 Nov 2019 Marcus argues that AI will not proceed until the field allows some "neatness", meaning some innate structure (nativism), in its systems. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Nov 2019 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 14 Nov 2019 The real action in AI will be in finding theoretically sound ways of combining symbolic and deep learning traditions. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 14 Nov 2019 AI capabilities
Mostly true Nate Silver Prediction 25 Sep 2019 Nate Silver guessed that the public would see the contents of the Ukraine call transcript as very inappropriate conduct and would find the White House's quid pro quo spin unresponsive to their concerns. Nate Silver · Prediction · 25 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Nate Silver Prediction 25 Sep 2019 In what he called a first, possibly imprudent reaction, Nate Silver said it was hard to see how President Trump would not be impeached, given that the call transcript showed him pressuring Ukraine on Biden. Nate Silver · Prediction · 25 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Nate Silver Prediction 23 Sep 2019 Nate Silver said he still tended not to think public opinion on impeaching Trump would move much, but that it was hard to know. Nate Silver · Prediction · 23 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 20 Sep 2019 Marcus said he thinks it is just a question of whether "we will get there" gradually or through a lot of social unrest. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Gary Marcus Prediction 20 Sep 2019 Machines will achieve world-class scientific reasoning within the next 500 years (by 2519). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 20 Sep 2019 Smarter AI could solve many medical and scientific problems. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 20 Sep 2019 The ultimate AI systems will have the memory capabilities of machines rather than of people. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 20 Sep 2019 Marcus said he expects machines will eventually be able to do world-class scientific reasoning, though they are nowhere near that now. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Gary Marcus Prediction 20 Sep 2019 Marcus said he did not think machines would reach world-class scientific reasoning within the next five years (by 2024). Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 20 Sep 2019 Marcus said he thinks it is inevitable that society will adopt universal basic income, and that the open question is whether this happens gradually or through social unrest. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 20 Sep 2019 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Ray Dalio Prediction 16 Aug 2019 Greater interest rate cuts will occur as the world economy slows. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 16 Aug 2019 There will not be much change in US fiscal policy in the near term, before the next election. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 16 Aug 2019 Gold probably has upside in price from its level in August 2019. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 16 Aug 2019 Over the next three years from August 2019 there will be more currency wars. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 16 Aug 2019 Economic conditions will take a turn for the worse over the next one to three years from August 2019. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Resolved true Ray Dalio Prediction 16 Aug 2019 Dalio said he thought there was probably a 40 percent chance of a US recession in the next two years, before the next US election. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 16 Aug 2019 The coming environment will feature excess capacity, debt restructurings and political issues. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 16 Aug 2019 The United States might enter an environment of currency intervention to weaken the dollar. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 16 Aug 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Rodney Brooks Prediction 15 Aug 2019 Demonization and government criminal intimidation of immigrants will only make the situation worse. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 15 Aug 2019 Other
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Prediction 18 Jul 2019 In future, with social media further along as well, the net social surplus from those will be much higher than it is now. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 18 Jul 2019 Technology
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Prediction 18 Jul 2019 On net, social media are more likely to limit the risk of war than to increase it. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 18 Jul 2019 Technology
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Prediction 18 Jul 2019 Productivity growth will come back up again. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 18 Jul 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Prediction 18 Jul 2019 Cowen predicted that "we" will get much better at "it" in the future; the quoted surroundings do not say what "it" refers to. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 18 Jul 2019 Technology
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 29 Jun 2019 The UK government's commitment announced by Theresa May to the Global Fund will help save millions of lives from AIDS, TB and malaria. Bill Gates · Prediction · 29 Jun 2019 Other
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 22 Jun 2019 If more countries step up their fight against AIDS, TB and malaria through the Global Fund, 16 million lives can be saved. Bill Gates · Prediction · 22 Jun 2019 Other
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 24 May 2019 Narendra Modi's continued commitment to improving health, nutrition and development will significantly improve the lives of many. Bill Gates · Prediction · 24 May 2019 Other
Mostly true Tyler Cowen Prediction 13 May 2019 The US-China trade war will likely hurt China more than the United States. Tyler Cowen · Prediction · 13 May 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Gates Prediction 11 May 2019 With the right investments in health and education, young people at the bottom of the global population pyramid will drive tremendous growth and innovation. Bill Gates · Prediction · 11 May 2019 Other
Unresolvable Vinod Khosla Prediction 19 Apr 2019 Vinod Khosla said he suspected that the physical exam in medicine will be replaced by something like an upgraded AI-directed ultrasound. Vinod Khosla · Prediction · 19 Apr 2019 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 7 Mar 2019 2020 will be "the year of the ocean." Ray Dalio · Prediction · 7 Mar 2019 Other
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 25 Jan 2019 If Congress members went unpaid during shutdowns like federal workers, the US would no longer have government shutdowns. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 25 Jan 2019 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 24 Jan 2019 With technology, more and more businesses will have true network effects and extreme scalability. Sam Altman · Prediction · 24 Jan 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 15 Jan 2019 William Barr may become the person who most subverts American democracy, more than Donald Trump. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 15 Jan 2019 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Sam Altman Prediction 5 Jan 2019 By 2025, AGI will feel within reach to many people in the AI industry. Sam Altman · Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Sam Altman Prediction 5 Jan 2019 By 2025, net-gain nuclear fusion will be working at prototype scale. Sam Altman · Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 Technology
Unresolvable Sam Altman Prediction 5 Jan 2019 By 2025, gene editing will have cured at least one major disease. Sam Altman · Prediction · 5 Jan 2019 Technology
Unresolvable Gary Marcus Prediction 2019 The deep learning approach to language would never work, as argued in a chapter of Rebooting AI. Gary Marcus · Prediction · 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 The demands on DL-specific hardware will undoubtedly increase. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 Chances are that the bulk of computation in future deep learning systems will still consist primarily of convolutions. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 Programmable resistor technology may become sufficiently compact, reliable, durable and configurable for deep learning applications. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 Augmented/virtual reality and telepresence applications will require extremely low-power ASICs for DL inference. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 The ultimate solution to DL power constraints may be exploiting sparse activations, perhaps with event-based computation. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 What the AI hardware and software communities produce over the next few years will shape AI research for the coming decades. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 Self-supervised latent-variable predictive models will be the centerpiece of intelligent systems based on model-predictive control and model-based reinforcement learning, e.g. for robotic manipulation and autonomous driving. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI capabilities
Mostly true Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 Usage of graph neural networks will increase for a wide variety of applications likely to violate the assumptions of current deep learning hardware. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 New high-performance hardware will be required to enable progress towards deep learning systems trained to acquire vast amounts of background knowledge and a form of common sense. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Yann LeCun Prediction 2019 As DL is used for high-level cognitive tasks, memory modules will become commonplace and very large, requiring hardware support. Yann LeCun · Prediction · 2019 AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable Ray Dalio Prediction 11 Nov 2018 If the next recession brings a decline in earnings, a fair amount of the debt Dalio was discussing will be stress-tested and there will be issues with it. Ray Dalio · Prediction · 11 Nov 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Nouriel Roubini Prediction 15 Oct 2018 Now that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have plummeted from 2017's valuations, the techno-utopian mystique of distributed-ledger technologies should be next. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 15 Oct 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Prediction 9 Oct 2018 The number of religious people worldwide will probably go up. Steven Pinker · Prediction · 9 Oct 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 13 Sep 2018 Unlike in 2008, governments will lack the policy tools to manage the next downturn around 2020. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 13 Sep 2018 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 13 Sep 2018 The global economy's synchronized growth will lose momentum as unsustainable US fiscal policies start to phase out. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 13 Sep 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 13 Sep 2018 By 2020, conditions will be in place for another economic downturn. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 13 Sep 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 7 Sep 2018 If billions of people adopt cognitive enhancement, humanity's outcome will be the sum of billions of people's desires for the future. Elon Musk · Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 7 Sep 2018 Brain-AI interface technology will enable anyone who wants it to have superhuman cognition. Elon Musk · Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 7 Sep 2018 Musk said he thinks that if the human-computer data rate problem is solved, we would hang on to human-machine symbiosis over the long term. Elon Musk · Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 7 Sep 2018 The Sun will boil Earth's oceans in about 500 million years. Elon Musk · Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 Other
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 7 Sep 2018 It will be very tempting to use AI as a weapon. Elon Musk · Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 7 Sep 2018 Humans will not be able to compete with AI. Elon Musk · Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Mixed Elon Musk Prediction 7 Sep 2018 Humans can definitely travel to the Moon and Mars. Elon Musk · Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 7 Sep 2018 At some point the technology will become indistinguishable from reality. Elon Musk · Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 7 Sep 2018 People will in future be essentially snapshotted into a computer at any time. Elon Musk · Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 7 Sep 2018 Humans will not control advanced AI. Elon Musk · Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 7 Sep 2018 On the path to serious AI, the main danger will be humans using AI against each other. Elon Musk · Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Elon Musk Prediction 7 Sep 2018 In future, if a person's biological self dies, they could probably upload into a new unit. Elon Musk · Prediction · 7 Sep 2018 Technology
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 15 Jul 2018 Brooks suspects that human-level AI is much more complex than detecting gravity waves, controlled fusion or chemistry, and that it will take hundreds of years. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 15 Jul 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 15 Jul 2018 Brooks said that, of the practical systems built since 2006, the biggest practical impact for most people recently, and likely over the next couple of decades, is on speech transliteration systems. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 15 Jul 2018 AI capabilities
Not yet due Rodney Brooks Prediction 15 Jul 2018 Brooks said that perhaps, as he tends to believe, getting there is just really hard and will take a hundred years or more of concerted effort. Rodney Brooks · Prediction · 15 Jul 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 Absent a further policy change from Treasury and FHFA, the subject said he expected Freddie Mac to resume dividend payments to the Treasury in the third quarter of 2018. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 Pratt & Whitney's profit margins, currently depressed by losses from the GTF program ramp-up, should expand meaningfully as the GTF engine begins generating aftermarket revenues. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 Pershing Square expected PSH's discount to NAV to narrow given reduced free float, a substantially increased investment by the investment manager and improved investment performance. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 HHC's share of stabilized cash flow from the project is estimated to be over $19 million. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 These factors should enable ADP to achieve at least about $6.25 of EPS in fiscal year 2020, nearly 25% above management's September 2017 guidance. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 Pershing Square said it believed Tim Hortons' recent same-store sales slowdown would ultimately prove temporary, and expected the "Winning Together" plan and recent leadership changes to enable a return to historical growth rates. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 Mondelez's valuation gap should close as it reports differentiated results over the coming quarters. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 Ackman said that, because Congress had not put forth a viable plan since conservatorship began, "we believe" it was increasingly likely that the administration and FHFA would soon take the lead on housing finance reform. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Other
Unresolvable Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 Mondelez should continue to deliver sustained double-digit EPS growth even in the current environment. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Not yet due Bill Ackman Prediction 17 May 2018 With 25% of entitlements utilized, Ward Village will offer substantial continued value creation for Howard Hughes over the next decade. Bill Ackman · Prediction · 17 May 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Balaji Srinivasan Prediction 25 Apr 2018 Consumer choice in financial services will increase dramatically because blockchain makes it easier to start a competing financial outlet. Balaji Srinivasan · Prediction · 25 Apr 2018 Economics and markets
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Jeremy Grantham

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Prediction Economics and markets

“Bankruptcies have already started (Hertz on May 22nd) and by year-end thousands of them will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder 2020 1Q 2020 GMO Quarterly Letter (GMO)

By the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Prediction that by the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies would occur, arriving on top of corporate debt that was already at a peak. Measure: business/corporate bankruptcy filings during 2020 (US, which is the claim's context), such as US Courts business filings or Epiq/ABI commercial Chapter 11 counts. True: thousands (at least 2,000) of corporate bankruptcy filings occurred in 2020, and corporate debt was at or near a record high. Mostly true: thousands of filings occurred, but corporate debt was not quite at its peak, or a similar minor detail was off. Mostly false: filings counted on the claim's terms numbered in the hundreds, not the thousands. False: corporate bankruptcies in 2020 were far below thousands, or the claim's premise of a debt peak was clearly wrong and filings fell short.

Evidence

  1. Commercial Chapter 11s Jump 29% in 2020, Flat in December ABL Advisor · 13 January 2021
    “Commercial Chapter 11 filings increased 29 percent during calendar year 2020 as the total of 7,128 climbed past the 5,519 recorded during calendar year 2019, according to data provided by Epiq.”
  2. Commercial Chapter 11s Jump 29% in 2020, Flat in December ABL Advisor · 13 January 2021
    “The 32,506 business filings in calendar year 2020 represented a 17 percent drop from the 39,050 recorded in calendar year 2019.”

Reasoning

Citing Epiq data, E1 reports 7,128 commercial Chapter 11 filings in calendar 2020, up 29% from 2019. That clears the criteria's threshold of at least 2,000. E2 reports 32,506 business filings in total for 2020. That figure is also in the thousands, although it was 17% lower than in 2019. None of the evidence covers whether corporate debt was at or near a record high, so the debt-peak part of the claim cannot be confirmed. The core part, thousands of corporate bankruptcies, is supported.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “By the end of 2020, thousands of corporate bankruptcies will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt.” (said 2020). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_114e7557028d, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_114e7557028d

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.