2,528 claims · page 11 of 26
| Verdict | Person | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Factual | 11 Sep 2023 | Nate Silver turned on paid subscriptions for the Silver Bulletin newsletter by 11 September 2023. Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Nate Silver | Promise | 11 Sep 2023 | Nate Silver will hold periodic paid-subscriber-only Q&A threads on Silver Bulletin, answering questions from paid subscribers. Nate Silver · Promise · 11 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Promise | 11 Sep 2023 | Most answers in the paid Q&A threads on Silver Bulletin will be behind the paywall. Nate Silver · Promise · 11 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Nate Silver | Promise | 11 Sep 2023 | If Nate Silver stops regularly writing Silver Bulletin, he will provide a low-friction option for a prorated refund for annual subscribers. Nate Silver · Promise · 11 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Nate Silver | Factual | 11 Sep 2023 | The median Silver Bulletin post now gets about the same views as the median post Nate Silver wrote at FiveThirtyEight, with less variance (higher floor, lower ceiling so far). Nate Silver · Factual · 11 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Marc Andreessen | Factual | 2 Sep 2023 | Andreessen Horowitz holds certain meetings where everyone puts their phones face down. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 2 Sep 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Ray Kurzweil | Factual | 22 Aug 2023 | Kurzweil started creating his computation-growth graph about 40 years ago. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · 22 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Dario Amodei | Factual | 8 Aug 2023 | Dario Amodei did not think AI scaling would hit a wall, and a few other people shared that view, when a wall was a more plausible case. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Prediction | 8 Aug 2023 | Anthropic's security measures will defend against most attacks and against a less determined state-level actor. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 8 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Dario Amodei | Factual | 8 Aug 2023 | Anthropic's Long Term Benefit Trust is a much narrower body that makes decisions for Anthropic. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Dario Amodei | Factual | 8 Aug 2023 | Anthropic published a blog post on security stating it has a two-key system for access to model weights. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Dario Amodei | Factual | 8 Aug 2023 | Dario Amodei's "big blob of compute" document has not been made public. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Dario Amodei | Factual | 8 Aug 2023 | Anthropic did not cause the big acceleration in AI that happened in late 2022 and early 2023. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 8 Aug 2023 | Dario Amodei has pushed for better cybersecurity at every organisation where he has worked. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 8 Aug 2023 | Anthropic's current security measures are not sufficient against a super determined state-level actor. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 8 Aug 2023 | Dario Amodei formed his view on scaling gradually between 2014 and 2017. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 8 Aug 2023 | Anthropic is focusing heavily on cybersecurity, including working with its cloud providers. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Dario Amodei | Factual | 8 Aug 2023 | Anthropic works with cloud providers for its data centers. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Dario Amodei | Factual | 8 Aug 2023 | Every traditional investor who invests in Anthropic looks at its unusual governance body. Dario Amodei · Factual · 8 Aug 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 24 Jun 2023 | Rodney Brooks gave a keynote at CVPR 2023 on Tuesday 20 June 2023. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 24 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Yann LeCun | Factual | 23 Jun 2023 | Max Tegmark is a professor at MIT. Yann LeCun · Factual · 23 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Yann LeCun | Factual | 19 Jun 2023 | A joint interview of Yoshua Bengio and Yann LeCun was published in Les Échos Weekend a few days before 2023-06-19. Yann LeCun · Factual · 19 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Yann LeCun | Factual | 18 Jun 2023 | Meta AI / FAIR has a large presence at CVPR 2023. Yann LeCun · Factual · 18 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Yann LeCun | Factual | 18 Jun 2023 | Yann LeCun is an advisor to Enhance Lab. Yann LeCun · Factual · 18 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Yann LeCun | Factual | 15 Jun 2023 | Yann LeCun expressed opinions on the future of AI at the Innovation Press Day held at Meta-Paris on Tuesday 2023-06-13. Yann LeCun · Factual · 15 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | As of June 2023, the balajis.com community chat is free to join. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Ørsted | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted has significantly grown its onshore renewables business and become a leading player in bringing commercial scale to Power-to-X. Ørsted · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | Balaji Srinivasan is consolidating his content into one free newsletter at balajis.com. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Ørsted | Promise | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted has committed to reusing or recycling all wind turbine blades and solar panels from its global portfolio with immediate effect, and to commissioning only projects with a net-positive biodiversity impact from 2030. Ørsted · Promise · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Ørsted | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted has been awarded an additional 10.6 GW and has a renewable project pipeline of about 114 GW. Ørsted · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Ørsted | Prediction | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted's long-standing supplier relationships will ensure it capacity at competitive prices. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | Balaji Srinivasan has created tweets, talks, podcasts, courses, articles and The Network State book. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Ørsted | Prediction | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted is on track to outperform its previous EBITDA and ROCE targets for 2020-2027. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Ørsted | Promise | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted reaffirms its target of about 50 GW of renewable capacity in 2030. Ørsted · Promise · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Ørsted | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted currently operates 15.5 GW of renewable energy assets, with 4.9 GW under construction. Ørsted · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Ørsted | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | Since the 2021 CMD, Ørsted has completed several large projects, including the world's largest offshore wind farm. Ørsted · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Ørsted | Prediction | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted is on track to outperform its previous average ROCE target of 11-12% for 2020-2027, now expecting about 15% over 2020-2027. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Ørsted | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted is the global leader in offshore wind, with the largest portfolio of operating assets and the largest project pipeline across Europe, the US and APAC. Ørsted · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Ørsted | Prediction | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted's gross investment for 2020-2027, previously expected at about DKK 350 billion, is trending higher at DKK 380 billion. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Ørsted | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted is recognised on the CDP Climate Change A List as a global leader on climate action. Ørsted · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Ørsted | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted is the world's first energy company to have issued blue bonds. Ørsted · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | There is a community chat associated with the newsletter at balajis.com/chat. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Balaji Srinivasan | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | Balaji Srinivasan's newsletter audience has more than 100,000 subscribers. Balaji Srinivasan · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Ørsted | Prediction | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted now expects EBITDA from offshore and onshore assets in operation to grow at a 15% CAGR over 2020-2027, versus the previous target of about 12%. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Ørsted | Promise | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted will target an unlevered, fully loaded lifecycle IRR at a 150-300 basis point spread to WACC at the time of bid or FID, whichever comes first, while investing a majority of CAPEX in offshore. Ørsted · Promise · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Balaji Srinivasan | Promise | 7 Jun 2023 | All content on the balajis.com newsletter will be free in perpetuity. Balaji Srinivasan · Promise · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Ørsted | Prediction | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted is on track to reach its science-based targets of 98% carbon emissions reductions (scopes 1 and 2) in 2025 and net-zero for the full value chain in 2040. Ørsted · Prediction · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Ørsted | Factual | 7 Jun 2023 | Ørsted was the first energy company in the world to have its science-based net-zero emissions target validated by the Science Based Targets initiative. Ørsted · Factual · 7 Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Yann LeCun | Factual | Jun 2023 | The lecture notes summarize the main ideas of the autonomous intelligence architecture proposed by Yann LeCun. Yann LeCun · Factual · Jun 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Rodney Brooks | Factual | 17 May 2023 | Rodney Brooks gave an interview to IEEE Spectrum editor Glenn Zorpette about a couple of weeks before 17 May 2023, covering GPT and other topics. Rodney Brooks · Factual · 17 May 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Promise | 20 Apr 2023 | Google DeepMind is creating a new Scientific Board, led by Koray Kavukcuoglu with representatives from across the orgs, to oversee research progress and direction. Demis Hassabis · Promise · 20 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 20 Apr 2023 | Zoubin Ghahramani will join the Google DeepMind research leadership team reporting to Koray Kavukcuoglu. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Demis Hassabis | Promise | 20 Apr 2023 | Jeff, Koray, Zoubin, Shane and Demis Hassabis will finalise the composition of the new Google DeepMind Scientific Board in the coming days. Demis Hassabis · Promise · 20 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 20 Apr 2023 | Google DeepMind brings together DeepMind and Brain AI talent with Google's computing power, infrastructure and resources. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 20 Apr 2023 | On 20 April 2023 Sundar Pichai announced that DeepMind and Google Research's Brain team would join as a single unit called Google DeepMind. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 20 Apr 2023 | When DeepMind launched in 2010, many people thought general AI was farfetched science fiction decades away. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 20 Apr 2023 | Research advances from the Brain and DeepMind teams, from Deep Reinforcement Learning to Transformers, laid much of the foundations of the current AI industry. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Demis Hassabis | Factual | 20 Apr 2023 | Sundar Pichai, Jeff Dean, James Manyika and Demis Hassabis coordinated their efforts over recent months and built a partnership. Demis Hassabis · Factual · 20 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 7 Apr 2023 | Yudkowsky said he did not sign the open letter because he thinks it understates the seriousness of the situation and asks for too little to solve it. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 7 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 6 Apr 2023 | Eliezer Yudkowsky has consistently refused for many years to publish AI timelines with detailed probabilities. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 6 Apr 2023 | Nate Soares has written a post about the common mistakes everyone makes when coming into AI alignment. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 6 Apr 2023 | MIRI did not advertise the Visible Thoughts Project to people as a way to save the world, but as a tiny shred of hope. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 6 Apr 2023 | Yudkowsky wrote something about the circuitry of general intelligence when he was 22. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 6 Apr 2023 | CFAR (named in the surroundings as the "Center For Applied Rationale") did not get as far as buying an fMRI machine, and it had no funding. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 6 Apr 2023 | Yudkowsky previously thought that building intelligence would involve multiple specialized systems. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 6 Apr 2023 | Yudkowsky has not solved the AI alignment problem. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mixed | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 6 Apr 2023 | MIRI ran a Visible Thoughts Project that did not get enough funding or personnel and was progressing too slowly. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 6 Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Gary Marcus | Factual | Apr 2023 | In April 2023 Gary Marcus and Anka Reuel proposed a global, neutral, non-profit International Agency for AI (IAAI). Gary Marcus · Factual · Apr 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 31 Mar 2023 | Yudkowsky's TIME piece did not suggest nuclear strikes against countries refusing to sign a global agreement against large AI training runs. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 31 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | Gary Marcus wrote a long Twitter thread on the morning of 2023-03-30 responding to criticism of the FLI letter. Gary Marcus · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | Yudkowsky said he pioneered "the thing that appears when you hover over it" and so gets some credit for that user experience, while noting that a team of developers also gets credit. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Gary Marcus | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | The FLI open letter did not call for a ban on GPT-4. Gary Marcus · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | Yudkowsky said he believes the name Less Wrong was suggested by Nick Bostrom. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Gary Marcus | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | Most signers of the FLI open letter, including Gary Marcus and Yoshua Bengio, have no connection to the Future of Life Institute. Gary Marcus · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Gary Marcus | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | The letter Marcus was discussing did not call for a ban on most AI research, only for a brief pause on one very specific project involving a technology with known risks and no known solutions. Gary Marcus · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | The FLI open letter called for more AI research. Gary Marcus · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | Yudkowsky's model of AI did not rule out that gradient descent could produce intelligence without understanding of how it works. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Delivered on time | Gary Marcus | Promise | 30 Mar 2023 | Gary Marcus will speak at TED about short-term and long-term AI risk and what to do about it, in about two weeks from 2023-03-30. Gary Marcus · Promise · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | Yudkowsky said he thinks Wikipedia picked up "the hover thing" from a prototype of a different system he had put forward, while allowing that Wikipedia may have developed it independently. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Gary Marcus | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | The FLI open letter did not call for a ban on AI or for a permanent ban. Gary Marcus · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | Yudkowsky put up a prediction market on whether, in 2026, we will have understood anything inside a giant transformer net that was not known in 2006. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Gary Marcus | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | Gary Marcus signed the Future of Life Institute open letter and promoted it publicly. Gary Marcus · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | Yudkowsky was never skeptical that evolutionary computation would work in the limit. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | 30 Mar 2023 | In his writings on rationality, Yudkowsky emphasized probability theory more than reason as such. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 30 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Ray Dalio | Factual | 7 Mar 2023 | Ray Dalio has transitioned Bridgewater to new leadership. Ray Dalio · Factual · 7 Mar 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | 24 Feb 2023 | OpenAI's Charter includes a clause about assisting other organizations to advance safety instead of racing with them in late-stage AGI development. Sam Altman · Factual · 24 Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Sam Altman | Factual | 24 Feb 2023 | OpenAI has a cap on the returns its shareholders can earn. Sam Altman · Factual · 24 Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Sam Altman | Factual | 24 Feb 2023 | OpenAI is governed by a nonprofit that can override for-profit interests. Sam Altman · Factual · 24 Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 20 Feb 2023 | The Ukraine war was the biggest geopolitical story of 2018-2023, and Scott Alexander's 2018 predictions did not anticipate it. Scott Alexander · Factual · 20 Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Scott Alexander | Factual | 20 Feb 2023 | Scott Alexander said his biggest failure was item 10 of his 2018 predictions, where he gave Roe v. Wade only a 1% chance of being overturned. Scott Alexander · Factual · 20 Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Factual | 20 Feb 2023 | In 2023 he graded predictions 3 and 4 of his earlier list as having happened and predictions 1 and 2 as not having happened. Scott Alexander · Factual · 20 Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not yet due | Scott Alexander | Prediction | 20 Feb 2023 | His decision to devote more space to AI than to all non-AI topics combined will look prescient by 2028, even if his explicit predictions are wrong. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Factual | 20 Feb 2023 | In 2018, for the fifth anniversary of his old blog, Scott Alexander made predictions about the next five years. Scott Alexander · Factual · 20 Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Scott Alexander | Factual | 20 Feb 2023 | The tenth anniversary of Scott Alexander's old blog was in the week before 20 February 2023. Scott Alexander · Factual · 20 Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true | Scott Alexander | Factual | 20 Feb 2023 | In 2018 Scott Alexander partly abandoned his usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for rough guesses in his five-year predictions. Scott Alexander · Factual · 20 Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | Feb 2023 | MIRI did not know in advance that its failed lines of research would fail to pan out. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | Feb 2023 | Yudkowsky said alarm bells went off for him in 2015, when it became obvious to him "this is how it was going to go down"; he said this in answer to a question about the large amount of capital going into AI investment. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Eliezer Yudkowsky | Factual | Feb 2023 | MIRI has pursued many lines of research that have not panned out. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · Feb 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched | Elon Musk | Factual | 26 Jan 2023 | Elon Musk's Twitter account had 127 million followers as of 26 January 2023, the date of the statement. Elon Musk · Factual · 26 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only | Elon Musk | Factual | 26 Jan 2023 | Demand for Tesla cars far exceeds production and Tesla is making small price increases as a result. Elon Musk · Factual · 26 Jan 2023 | Their own work or organisation |
“I’ve turned on the option for paid subscriptions.”
Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin 11 September 2023 Soft launch of paid subscriptions (Silver Bulletin)
Nate Silver turned on paid subscriptions for the Silver Bulletin newsletter by 11 September 2023.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.
What would count as true or false
True: the Silver Bulletin on Substack offered paid subscriptions on or before 2023-09-11, shown by an archived subscribe page with paid tiers, a dated post announcing paid subscriptions, or paywalled posts dated on or before that day. Mostly true: paid subscriptions launched within a day or two of the date, with the announcement on 11 September itself. False: evidence shows paid subscriptions became available only after 2023-09-11, e.g. archived pages from that date showing a free-only option.
Evidence
- Nate Silver (@natesilver) Substack · 11 September 2023 Own record
“All right, took the plunge and turned on paid subscriptions! Most posts will be free so keeping expectations modest, but there will be subscriber-only Q&As and other occasional nerdy stuff.”
- Comments - Soft launch of paid subscriptions Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 11 September 2023 Own record
“Nate Silver<br>Sep 11, 2023<br>90<br>19<br>10”
- About - Silver Bulletin Silver Bulletin Own record
“Silver Bulletin launched paid subscriptions in September 2023.”
Reasoning
E2 is a Silver Bulletin post titled 'Soft launch of paid subscriptions' and dated Sep 11, 2023. The criteria name a dated post announcing paid subscriptions as one way to show the claim is true. E1, a Substack note from the same day, says paid subscriptions had been turned on. E3, the About page, says paid subscriptions launched in September 2023. All three sources are the subject's own records, and no independent source confirms them.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Nate Silver turned on paid subscriptions for the Silver Bulletin newsletter by 11 September 2023.” (said 11 September 2023). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_618bdb73a623, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_618bdb73a623
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.