Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

2,653 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 10 Jun 2025 The US debt-to-GDP ratio is over 100%. Ray Dalio · Factual · 10 Jun 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 5 Jun 2025 Distillation of frontier models lets lagging companies narrow the gap at a fraction of the cost of developing their own AI independently. Dario Amodei · Factual · 5 Jun 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Dario Amodei Promise 5 Jun 2025 Anthropic is unilaterally committing now to the step of embedding third-party evaluators, which it describes as the key step for verifying any pacing commitments, comparable to regulatory supervisors embedded alongside employees in banking. Dario Amodei · Promise · 5 Jun 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 5 Jun 2025 Dario Amodei has worked on AI for the last twelve years. Dario Amodei · Factual · 5 Jun 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly false Jensen Huang Factual 19 May 2025 NVIDIA's NVLink Fusion work is now flexible and open for anybody to integrate into. Jensen Huang · Factual · 19 May 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 12 May 2025 Winning the Senate in 2026 would require Democrats to win at least two states that are solidly red at the presidential level. Nate Silver · Factual · 12 May 2025 Other
Delivered on time Nate Silver Promise 12 May 2025 The Silver Bulletin will not publish its official 2026 midterms forecast until at least a year after May 2025. Nate Silver · Promise · 12 May 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 12 May 2025 Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to win the Senate majority in 2026. Nate Silver · Factual · 12 May 2025 Other
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 12 May 2025 Susan Collins won re-election in Maine in 2020 even as Donald Trump lost the presidency to Joe Biden. Nate Silver · Factual · 12 May 2025 Other
Mixed Nate Silver Prediction 8 Apr 2025 Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam. Nate Silver · Prediction · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 8 Apr 2025 The average US tariff rate on the rest of the world was at least 23% as of April 2025. Nate Silver · Factual · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nate Silver Factual 8 Apr 2025 The two special elections held in early April 2025 were in extremely Republican-leaning, rural Florida districts. Nate Silver · Factual · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 8 Apr 2025 Congress has the power to pass a law stopping President Trump's tariffs. Nate Silver · Factual · 8 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Nate Silver Factual 8 Apr 2025 About 60% of Americans have investments in the stock market. Nate Silver · Factual · 8 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Resolved true Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, the government becomes extremely interested in AI and discusses nationalizing the AI companies. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Scott Alexander Factual 3 Apr 2025 Through history, people have been reluctant to admit an AI is truly intelligent. Scott Alexander · Factual · 3 Apr 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI capabilities
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Scott Alexander Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale. Scott Alexander · Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 3 Apr 2025 Nvidia originally came from gaming. Scott Alexander · Factual · 3 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Resolved true Scott Alexander Factual 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander said he thinks the AI alignment community did not really expect LLMs. Scott Alexander · Factual · 3 Apr 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 10 Mar 2025 Anthropic was the first AI company to have a responsible scaling policy. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 10 Mar 2025 Within a few months of Anthropic releasing its responsible scaling policy, the other AI companies all adopted similar policies. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Dario Amodei Prediction 10 Mar 2025 US export controls may have the effect of stimulating China's chip development. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 AI policy and governance
Resolved false Dario Amodei Prediction 10 Mar 2025 Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 10 Mar 2025 Amodei said he thinks delaying Claude's release had real commercial consequences for Anthropic. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Dario Amodei Prediction 10 Mar 2025 Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Mixed Dario Amodei Factual 10 Mar 2025 Amodei's group measured AI scaling trends when models cost $1,000 or $10,000 to train. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 AI capabilities
Mostly true Dario Amodei Prediction 10 Mar 2025 Anthropic's models may reach AI Safety Level 3 in 2025. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 10 Mar 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Dario Amodei Factual 10 Mar 2025 Dario Amodei thought one or two years before March 2025 that data limits were a very plausible blocker to AI progress. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 10 Mar 2025 Dario Amodei has supported export controls on chips for several years, before DeepSeek's model came out. Dario Amodei · Factual · 10 Mar 2025 AI policy and governance
Mixed Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2025 AI hallucinations persist but are becoming much less frequent. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 AI capabilities
Mixed Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2025 Kurzweil said that at about 10 billion connections neural networks started to do things. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly false Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2025 Exponential growth applies to every type of technology, not just computers. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 Technology
Mixed Ray Kurzweil Factual Mar 2025 More and more people from more backgrounds, including third world countries in Africa and South America, now participate in technological advances than previously. Ray Kurzweil · Factual · Mar 2025 Economics and markets
Mixed Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Many other companies' reasoning models on the market are trained primarily on math and competition coding. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Mostly true Dario Amodei Prediction 28 Feb 2025 In the short run (about 6 to 12 months), AI will augment and increase coders' productivity rather than replace them. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 AI, the economy and work
Delivered on time Dario Amodei Promise 28 Feb 2025 Anthropic will launch web search for Claude very soon. Dario Amodei · Promise · 28 Feb 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Anthropic ran an experiment training a model to be helpful, honest, harmless and friendly. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Anthropic assessed that Claude 3.7 Sonnet is not yet at a stage giving a real and meaningful end-to-end increase in dangerous threat capability. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Amodei said he thinks AI coding is moving the fastest of all the areas of AI. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Amodei's earlier 10 to 25% figure referred to the chance of civilization getting substantially derailed. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 The model sometimes gives a very short response because, when it knows it gains nothing from thinking further, it does not think for longer; a bound on how long it thinks is still described as valuable. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Anthropic trained Claude 3.7 to focus more on real-world tasks, as distinct from competition coding. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Dario Amodei Prediction 28 Feb 2025 By the end of 2025, AI will do very serious things in coding. Dario Amodei · Prediction · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Dario Amodei Factual 28 Feb 2025 Anthropic's approach to reasoning models in Sonnet 3.7 emphasized different things from competitors' reasoning models. Dario Amodei · Factual · 28 Feb 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 The gap between conservative and liberal votes in the US House and Senate is the greatest since 1900. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 The United States designs chips but cannot produce chips effectively. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly false Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 US life expectancy is five years lower than that of Canadians and of countries with equal income levels. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 About 3 million people (the top innovators) live in a US population of a little over 330 million. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Field building and careers
Mostly false Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 Dalio said that over the past 30 years, US leaders have dealt with the recurring problem he was describing by completely ignoring it. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 Indonesia has the second highest happiness rating. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 60% of Americans read below a sixth-grade level. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Field building and careers
Mixed Ray Dalio Factual 22 Feb 2025 China accounts for about 33% of world manufacturing, more than the United States, Europe and Japan combined. Ray Dalio · Factual · 22 Feb 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 The lack of understanding of how AI systems work is essentially unprecedented in the history of technology. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mixed Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 People outside the AI field are often surprised and alarmed to learn that AI creators do not understand how their AI systems work. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 When Anthropic was founded, its founders made mechanistic interpretability a central part of the company's direction, focused on LLMs. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 Amodei said that "we" were able to provide a strong theoretical basis for having conviction that superposition was the right hypothesis to pursue; the surrounding text does not say who "we" refers to. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 It became clear that superposition would be a central problem for language models, much worse than in vision models. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 Modern generative AI systems are opaque in a way that fundamentally differs from traditional software. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 Anthropic created "Golden Gate Claude", a version of one of its models with the Golden Gate Bridge feature artificially amplified, making it obsessed with the bridge. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Dario Amodei Factual 18 Feb 2025 Circuits, groups of features, allow researchers to trace an AI model's thinking steps. Dario Amodei · Factual · 18 Feb 2025 AI safety and alignment
Resolved true Bill Gates Prediction 4 Feb 2025 Some government policies affecting climate work will become less favorable than before. Bill Gates · Prediction · 4 Feb 2025 AI policy and governance
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Political donations in Silicon Valley go 90 to 99% to one party. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Substack started from scratch and declared up front that it would be a free speech platform. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Marc Andreessen Prediction 26 Jan 2025 Andreessen said energy independence and large net energy exports are a matter of choice, and that he thinks the new Trump administration will choose to pursue them. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Prediction 26 Jan 2025 The incoming Trump administration will do as much as it can through executive orders and then use legislation and regulatory changes for the rest. Marc Andreessen · Prediction · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen is a volunteer for the Trump administration when helpful, does not make its decisions and cannot speak for it. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 The Stanford Internet Observatory was basically funded by the federal government to be a third-party censorship operation. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 The US Constitution requires Congress to authorize money to be spent by the executive branch. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Under the current interpretation of appropriations, a president who does not want to spend appropriated money cannot decline to spend it. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly false Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Getting Amish voters to the polls was one of the reasons Trump won the 2024 election. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Incumbent universities, through accreditation, are in complete control of who gets access to federal student loan money. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Other
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen does not speak for DOGE and is not in charge of DOGE. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 The United States is the main place where the world's best and brightest foreign students get educated. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 The US is adding a trillion dollars to the national debt every 100 days, and it is now passing the size of the Defense Department budget and compounding. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Mixed Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 The system that has been built for these people is paid for virtually 100% by taxpayer money. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen has made the argument in favour of high-skilled immigration and H-1B visas many times. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Marc Andreessen Factual 26 Jan 2025 Marc Andreessen joined the Facebook board in 2007. Marc Andreessen · Factual · 26 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 10 Jan 2025 Zuckerberg controls the majority of the voting power at Meta. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 10 Jan 2025 Requiring more confidence for takedowns will dramatically reduce the number of people whose Meta accounts are removed by mistake. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Prediction 10 Jan 2025 Changing Meta's content filters to require higher confidence and precision will reduce the vast majority of Meta's censorship mistakes. Mark Zuckerberg · Prediction · 10 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 10 Jan 2025 Someone in Pakistan tried to get Zuckerberg sentenced to death, bringing a criminal proceeding over a Facebook picture of the prophet Muhammad. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 10 Jan 2025 Before Meta updated its policies, a statement calling for women to be excluded from certain combat roles could not be posted on its platforms because it called for exclusion of a protected category. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 10 Jan 2025 Apple built a protocol for connecting accessories to the iPhone that is not encrypted (plain text). Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 Technology
Mostly true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 10 Jan 2025 The body has redundant neural pathways to the hand because the ability to use the hand is very important. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 Technology
Resolved true Mark Zuckerberg Factual 10 Jan 2025 Zuckerberg said that there are emails and that the emails have been published. Mark Zuckerberg · Factual · 10 Jan 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Jensen Huang Factual 7 Jan 2025 NVIDIA Cosmos is the world's first world foundation model. Jensen Huang · Factual · 7 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Resolved true Jensen Huang Factual 7 Jan 2025 On 2025-01-07, Jensen Huang announced NVIDIA's next-generation RTX Blackwell family, the GeForce RTX 50 series. Jensen Huang · Factual · 7 Jan 2025 Technology
Mostly false Jensen Huang Factual 7 Jan 2025 NVIDIA DRIVE OS is the first software-defined programmable AI computer certified up to ASIL D, the highest automotive functional safety standard. Jensen Huang · Factual · 7 Jan 2025 Technology
Mostly true Jensen Huang Factual 7 Jan 2025 NVIDIA fine-tuned Llama models and turned them into the Llama Nemotron suite of open models. Jensen Huang · Factual · 7 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Mostly true Jensen Huang Factual 7 Jan 2025 NVIDIA Cosmos is trained on 20 million hours of video. Jensen Huang · Factual · 7 Jan 2025 AI capabilities
Mostly true Jensen Huang Factual 7 Jan 2025 NVIDIA's Blackwell chip is in full production as of January 2025. Jensen Huang · Factual · 7 Jan 2025 AI compute, hardware and data
Mostly false Jensen Huang Promise 7 Jan 2025 NVIDIA's GB10-based Project DIGITS computer will be available around May 2025. Jensen Huang · Promise · 7 Jan 2025 Technology
Mostly true Jensen Huang Factual 7 Jan 2025 NVIDIA invented the programmable GPU in 1999, six years after the UDA work described just before in the speech, and this started more than 20 years of advances in the GPU. Jensen Huang · Factual · 7 Jan 2025 Technology
Resolved true Jensen Huang Factual 7 Jan 2025 Toyota and NVIDIA are going to partner to create their next-generation autonomous vehicles. Jensen Huang · Factual · 7 Jan 2025 Economics and markets
Mostly true Jensen Huang Factual 7 Jan 2025 The RTX 50 series Blackwell GPU has 92 billion transistors, 4,000 TOPS and four petaflops of AI, three times the previous-generation Ada. Jensen Huang · Factual · 7 Jan 2025 Technology
Resolved true Jensen Huang Factual 7 Jan 2025 NVIDIA invented CUDA six years after 1999 (around 2005) to expose GPU programmability to a broad set of algorithms. Jensen Huang · Factual · 7 Jan 2025 Technology
Mostly true Jensen Huang Factual 7 Jan 2025 NVIDIA invented neural texture compression and neural material shading. Jensen Huang · Factual · 7 Jan 2025 Technology
Mostly true Jensen Huang Factual 7 Jan 2025 In the RTX 50 (Blackwell) generation the programmable shader can process neural networks. Jensen Huang · Factual · 7 Jan 2025 Technology
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Factual Their own work or organisation

“I joined the board there in 2007 so I've seen everything in the last almost 20 years every step of the way.”

Marc Andreessen, interviewee 26 January 2025 Transcript for Marc Andreessen: Trump, Power, Tech, AI, Immigration & Future of America (Lex Fridman)

Marc Andreessen joined the Facebook board in 2007.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

What would count as true or false

The test is the year Marc Andreessen became a director of Facebook (now Meta). True: official records show he joined the board in 2007. Mostly true: he joined in 2006 or 2008. That is a one-year slip, and the claim's main point, that he has served for most of the company's history, still holds. Mostly false: he joined the board, but two or more years away from 2007. False: the records show he was never a Facebook director.

Evidence

  1. Marc Andreessen Joins Facebook Board of Directors Facebook, Inc. (about.fb.com newsroom) · 30 June 2008
    “PALO ALTO, Calif. — June 30, 2008 — Facebook today announced that Marc Andreessen has joined its board of directors.”
  2. Marc Andreessen Officially Joins Facebook Board of Directors Adweek · 30 June 2008
    “Facebook announced today that Silicon Valley luminary and current Ning Chairman Marc Andreessen has officially taken the fourth seat on Facebook’s board.”
  3. Facebook | The Info Web The Info Web
    “Andreessen is listed as a director since June 2008 and as a general partner of Andreessen Horowitz since July 2009.”

Reasoning

Facebook's announcement dated June 30, 2008 says Marc Andreessen joined its board of directors that day (E1). Adweek reported the same appointment on the same date (E2), and a third source lists him as a director since June 2008 (E3). He joined in 2008, not 2007. Under the criteria, a one-year slip counts as mostly true.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “Marc Andreessen joined the Facebook board in 2007.” (said 26 January 2025). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_ef7ded86ad70, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ef7ded86ad70

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.