Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

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6,750 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Own records only Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 As of April 2007, Grantham personally holds a short position in copper. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Factual Apr 2007 Infrastructure is the most recent investment area to attract rapid increases in capital, partly because other opportunities became overpriced. Jeremy Grantham · Factual · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 Markets are probably in for an extended period of mispricing, usually favoring trendy assets, with sometimes dramatic reactions. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 U.S. blue chips and U.S. bonds will mostly be priced lower relative to fair value than the trendier newer asset classes. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 The decline of violence applies across genocide, war, rioting, homicide and the treatment of children and animals. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 People estimate the probability of an event from how easily they can recall examples. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 Pinker said that in every Western European country analyzed by Manuel Eisner, whose data come from localities that kept records at some point between 1200 and the mid-1990s, murder rates declined steeply, e.g. from 24 per 100,000 Englishmen in the fourteenth century to 0.6 per 100,000 by the early 1960s. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 Had twentieth-century wars killed the proportion typical of tribal warfare, there would have been about two billion deaths rather than 100 million. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Science and research methods
Mostly true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 Violence has declined over long stretches of history, and today is probably the most peaceful time in human history. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 Robert Wright champions a theory that invokes the logic of non-zero-sum games. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 Raids and battles in pre-state societies killed a tiny percentage of the numbers that die in modern warfare. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Steven Pinker Factual 1 Jan 2007 Body-count evidence such as skeletons with axemarks and death rates in foraging tribes suggests pre-state societies were far more violent than modern ones. Steven Pinker · Factual · 1 Jan 2007 Science and research methods
Resolved true Michael Burry Prediction 2007 The S&P 500 could easily finish 2008 with a negative return, dragging down crowded value-oriented investment funds. Michael Burry · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 2007 Buffett said he made a deal with Jack in a few minutes, waiving an audit, due diligence or anything else that would give Jack an opportunity to reconsider. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 2007 The postwar wealth transfer apparatus never worked as advertised, and Western wealth was largely squandered on white elephant projects. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Large future gains in Berkshire's non-insurance earnings will come only if it makes major, sensible acquisitions. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 2007 Buffett said he believed GEICO could save money on insurance for at least half of the Berkshire shareholders who checked their existing insurance with it. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 2007 Berkshire's partners in owning MidAmerican Energy are Walter Scott, Dave Sokol and Greg Abel. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 Humans were created by evolution, an unintelligent process, whereas AI will be created by intelligent human processes. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 AI capabilities
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 2007 Buffett said 35 university classes would come to Omaha for sessions with him in the 2006-2007 school year, and that he takes almost all visiting students, in aggregate more than 2,000, to lunch at Gorat's. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 An AI project will not succeed merely by implementing a five-layer model of intelligence like the human brain's. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Buffett's 2007 federal and state income taxes will be exactly what they would have been had he not made his 2007 charitable contributions. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 The decline in Buffalo News profits will almost certainly continue. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Mixed Peter Thiel Factual 2007 René Girard, like Schmitt and Strauss, believes there is a disturbing truth about the city and humanity, and that the Enlightenment whitewashed away the issue of human violence. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 A deliberately designed AI is likely to begin as a set of subsystems in a primitive, undeveloped state already designed to form a functioning supersystem. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 2007 Buffett said Berkshire believed its $16.9 billion gain in net worth during 2006 was a record one-year gain for any American business, leaving aside boosts from mergers. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Berkshire is likely to continue earning significant overall profits from mispriced derivatives despite occasional losses. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 Yudkowsky, on first visualizing a triangular light bulb, saw a pyramidal bulb with smoothed edges and a bulb on the square base. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2007 The cumulative decisions made in close cases between violence and peace may determine the destiny of the postmodern world. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 2007 After September 11, serious people could publicly raise the issue of unilateralism, and of institutions providing cover for it, for the first time since 1945. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Other global risks
Not yet due Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Americans will live better ten or twenty years after 2007 than they do today, despite the unwise course of U.S. borrowing. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 Yudkowsky conjectured that matching imagery against large concept sets will be one of the most computationally intensive subprocesses in AI, perhaps the most expensive subprocess. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 Yudkowsky estimated that the whole process of forming the mental image in his example took less than one second. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mixed Peter Thiel Factual 2007 In Girard's view, the Judeo-Western revelation may be slow because humans do not wish to hear its message, but it is not reversible. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 Cautiously considering what a more foresightful and less accretive design for intelligence might look like, Yudkowsky suggested that in an AI the center of gravity of intelligence, the process humans observe through their internal narrative, would probably become the central supersystem of the mind, to an even greater degree than in humans. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 2007 For every jihadist killed after September 11, about ten more arose to seek martyrdom. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Other global risks
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 As U.S. trade problems worsen, the dollar is highly likely to weaken over time. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2007 The modern age will not be permanent and will ultimately give way to something very different. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 The process of visualizing a triangular light bulb is not really open to human introspection. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 Yudkowsky cannot introspect on how the salient facet of a concept is selected during concept combination. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 The mental image of the pyramidal light bulb carried semantic content, such as knowledge of its glass composition, imported from the "light bulb" concept. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 2007 Leo Strauss believes there is a truth about human nature that can in principle be known to humanity. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 2007 The overall insurance industry had a terrific year in 2006. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Own records only Warren Buffett Promise 2007 Any shareholder coming from outside the U.S. or Canada will be given a special credential and instructions for attending the reception. Warren Buffett · Promise · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 2007 Berkshire has done many retroactive reinsurance transactions, a multiple of the number and amount of such policies entered into by any other insurer. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Warren Buffett Factual 2007 Buffett said in 2007 that, fifty years earlier, Walter was the only investment manager he recommended to a St. Louis family looking for an honest and able investment manager. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 2007 For Girard, a post-Darwinian account of humanity must somehow combine the gradualism of Darwinian evolution with the essentialism of the pre-Darwinians. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2007 In the long run, power and prosperity may go to those who follow Locke's capitalist rules, leaving religious fanatics without the wealth and technology to threaten the nonreligious West. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 The Copycat program has a limited store of preprogrammed concepts and does not learn further concepts through experience. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 AI capabilities
Mostly false Peter Thiel Factual 2007 No real economic development took place through postwar wealth transfers, and even in the best cases the money returned to the West in Swiss accounts of Third World dictators. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Berkshire's business performance will determine its stock price, and most of the time the stock will sell in a zone of reasonableness. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2007 One day all will be revealed, all injustices exposed, and perpetrators held to account. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 Early-stage AIs will likely be less adept than humans at visualizing concepts only as far as needed, and so may need full visualizations where humans use abstract reasoning. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Mixed Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 Smooth fitness landscapes are a necessary and fundamental outcome of evolution. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 When a person reads the letters spelling "light bulb", the phonemes for it flow through the auditory cortex. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Prediction 2007 The postmodern world could differ from the modern world in a way that is much worse or much better. Peter Thiel · Prediction · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 The distinction between sharp, fragile human-written code and smooth biological computation is unlikely to be erased by programmer effort or new programming languages. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 2007 The United States became more secular and materialist over time, though most citizens continued to call themselves Christians. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Berkshire's results from its bread-and-butter insurance lines will deteriorate in 2007, though Buffett said he thought they would remain satisfactory. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 Under GOFAI and formal logic, the classical view of concepts treats abstraction as information loss. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Peter Thiel Factual 2007 After World War II, hundreds of billions of dollars in cheap loans or grants were channelled to Third World governments via the World Bank, IMF and other organizations to foster growth. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Warren Buffett Guidance 2007 After the Equitas transaction, Berkshire's annual DCRA cost will initially increase to about $450 million a year. Warren Buffett · Guidance · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Factual 2007 In 1967 Buffett had no expectation that Berkshire's float would develop as it has. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Berkshire's insurance operations will periodically have bad years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Buffett said he believed Berkshire's other insurance operations would clear the underwriting-gain hurdle needed for overall float to be cost-free in many, if not most, years. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Executive compensation reform will occur only if the largest institutional shareholders demand a fresh look at the whole system. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 2007 After reviewing the facts in the spring of 2006, Buffett and Ajit concluded that Equitas was likely to survive. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Prediction 2007 Software-level parallelism, poorly handled by present-day languages, will likely be one of the greatest challenges in AI development. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Prediction · 2007 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Buffett's thinking about the disposition of his Berkshire shares is very unlikely to change in a material way. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 The mental image of a triangular light bulb would intuitively appear to result from imposing "triangular" on the "light bulb" concept. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 The idea of 'pure' abstract reasoning has historically given rise to pathologies in AI research. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 AI capabilities
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 2007 Taxes had nothing to do with Buffett's decision to give away his Berkshire shares or its timing. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 2007 Berkshire issues no incentive payoffs to CEOs that are unrelated to the business performance they control. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 The math of the 2-and-20 fee arrangement is certain to make investors poorer over time than they would have been without it. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Prediction 2007 Buffett said he believed that at some point in the future U.S. workers and voters would find the annual "tribute" paid abroad so onerous that there would be a severe political backlash. Warren Buffett · Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Own records only Warren Buffett Factual 2007 Berkshire has three outstanding candidates to replace Buffett as CEO, as he has previously told shareholders. Warren Buffett · Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 2007 In René Girard's theory, knowledge of the founding murder is driven by the historical working of the Judeo-Western revelation. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Warren Buffett Promise 2007 Berkshire will again hold a reception at 4 p.m. on Saturday afternoon of the 2007 annual meeting weekend for shareholders who have come from outside North America. Warren Buffett · Promise · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Peter Thiel Factual 2007 The original expropriation of oil built as many as half of the greatest fortunes of the twentieth century. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Peter Thiel Factual 2007 Thomas Hobbes boasted of having deserted and run away from fighting in a religious war. Peter Thiel · Factual · 2007 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Eliezer Yudkowsky Factual 2007 Three color channels are not enough to discriminate between all natural surface reflectances. Eliezer Yudkowsky · Factual · 2007 Science and research methods
Resolved true Jim Cramer Factual 20 Nov 2006 Companies' third-quarter 2006 earnings reports, just released as of 20 November 2006, were strong. Jim Cramer · Factual · 20 Nov 2006 Economics and markets
Own records only Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 The Scion funds do not participate in the cash residential mortgage-backed securities market. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 Variation in side pocket value comes from the Livedoor position being held in Japanese yen while the fund reports in dollars. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 On a notional basis, 41.6% of Scion's mortgage shorts are on BBB- tranches and 49.8% on BBB tranches. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 The Livedoor, Blue Ocean Re and Symetra side pockets are all carried at cost. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Michael Burry Factual Nov 2006 Servicers may generally advance interest payments to a mortgage pool when a mortgage goes delinquent. Michael Burry · Factual · Nov 2006 Economics and markets
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 5 Oct 2006 During March–September 2005, Burry found most mortgage pools and their subordinate tranches totally unworthy as short candidates. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Oct 2006 Economics and markets
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 5 Oct 2006 Through September 2006 the Scion portfolio was down for the year, and its performance was solely due to its credit default swap positions. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Oct 2006 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Michael Burry Factual 5 Oct 2006 Burry attempts, within reason, to keep the Scion Value Fund and Scion Qualified Value Fund pari passu in portfolio composition. Michael Burry · Factual · 5 Oct 2006 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Tyler Cowen Factual 5 Oct 2006 A news headline on 2006-10-05 reported that the Milky Way is teeming with earth-like planets. Tyler Cowen · Factual · 5 Oct 2006 Other
Own records only Michael Burry Factual Oct 2006 At the end of October 2006, single name corporate CDS were 3.27% of assets under management in the Scion Value Fund and 3.55% in the Scion Qualified Value Fund. Michael Burry · Factual · Oct 2006 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 Existing home sales figures released on 2006-09-25 showed falling home prices. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly true Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The housing bust will trigger an economy-wide US recession in 2007. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 There is going to be a huge glut. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Factual 25 Sep 2006 There is a glut of new condos in Manhattan and it is getting worse. Nouriel Roubini · Factual · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 US real home prices will fall 20 to 30 percent over the next three years or so, from September 2006. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Nouriel Roubini Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US housing market will have its biggest bust in decades. Nouriel Roubini · Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
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Jeremy Grantham

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Prediction Economics and markets

“So we are probably in for an extended period of mispricing, usually in favor of the trendy assets, but with reactions that will sometimes likely be dramatic.”

Jeremy Grantham, GMO letter author April 2007 The First Truly Global Bubble (It's Everywhere, In Everything) (GMO)

Markets are probably in for an extended period of mispricing, usually favoring trendy assets, with sometimes dramatic reactions.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Vague 'extended period of mispricing' with no measurable criteria.

Cite this claim

Jeremy Grantham, “Markets are probably in for an extended period of mispricing, usually favoring trendy assets, with sometimes dramatic reactions.” (said April 2007). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_eed324c08e99, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_eed324c08e99

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.