Claims

2,653 claims by 33 public figures and organisations, checked against the public record. Each has its quote, source, verdict and evidence. Read them without a key; browse by person.

18 claims

18 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictPersonKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved false Demis Hassabis Promise 20 May 2026 Google DeepMind will release a Gemini 3.5 Pro model following Gemini 3.5 Flash. Demis Hassabis · Promise · 20 May 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 28 Jan 2026 Tesla hopes to debut the next-generation Roadster in April 2026. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 28 Jan 2026 Tesla will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. Elon Musk · Promise · 28 Jan 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Warren Buffett Promise 5 May 2024 Poor Charlie's Almanack will be the only book at the Berkshire meeting bookstore next year. Warren Buffett · Promise · 5 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 24 Jan 2024 Musk said he thinks Tesla has a good chance of shipping some number of Optimus units in 2025, and he called Optimus a brand-new product. Elon Musk · Promise · 24 Jan 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 24 Jan 2024 Musk said Tesla's current schedule is to start production toward the end of 2025, sometime in the second half, while noting that he is often optimistic regarding time. Elon Musk · Promise · 24 Jan 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2022 Tesla expects growth in 2022 over 2021 comfortably above 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2022 If able to respond to demand, Tesla's energy business might grow by about 200% to 300% in 2022 rather than about 50%. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 3 Mar 2021 SpaceX will attempt a Starship launch on 4 March 2021, with the window opening at 9am. Elon Musk · Promise · 3 Mar 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Prediction 27 Jan 2021 Tesla Semi will likely be the first vehicle to achieve full autonomy. Elon Musk · Prediction · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Guidance 27 Jan 2021 Tesla targets 100 gigawatt-hours of Tesla-produced cells in 2022. Elon Musk · Guidance · 27 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects gross investments in 2018 of DKK 16-18 billion, covering offshore wind projects, the Asnæs Power Station biomass conversion and smart meter installation. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction Feb 2018 Ørsted expects 2018 EBITDA (business performance) excluding new partnership agreements of DKK 12-13 billion, compared with DKK 12.7 billion in 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 16 Jun 2017 SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2 propulsive lander to Mars in about two years, and probably another Dragon mission in 2020. Elon Musk · Promise · 16 Jun 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Promise 2017 DONG Energy will stop using coal altogether at its power plants from 2023. Ørsted · Promise · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Ørsted Prediction 2017 DONG Energy's REnescience waste treatment plant in Northwich is expected to be commissioned in the first half of 2017. Ørsted · Prediction · 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Elon Musk Promise 20 Jul 2016 Tesla plans to create an integrated solar-roof-with-battery product and scale it throughout the world. Elon Musk · Promise · 20 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Jeremy Grantham Prediction Apr 2007 GMO's 7-year forecast implies U.S. equities would return minus 1.4% real per year as P/Es and profit margins revert to long-term averages. Jeremy Grantham · Prediction · Apr 2007 Their own work or organisation
Back to the list

Elon Musk

Open its page

Promise Their own work or organisation

“We plan to send Dragon 2, which is a propulsive lander, to Mars in a couple of years, and then probably do another Dragon mission in 2020.”

Elon Musk, SpaceX founder 16 June 2017 Elon Musk publishes 15-page manifesto outlining how to get humanity to Mars (New Atlas)

SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2 propulsive lander to Mars in about two years, and probably another Dragon mission in 2020.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The claim has two parts: (1) send a Dragon 2 propulsive lander to Mars in about two years (by about the end of 2019 or the 2020 launch window); (2) probably another Dragon Mars mission in 2020. The deadline is 31 Dec 2020. True: a Dragon 2 propulsive lander was launched to Mars by the deadline and a second Dragon Mars mission was launched in 2020. Mostly true: both launched, with a small timing slip. Mixed: only one Dragon Mars mission launched by the end of 2020. Mostly false: a Mars mission launched only after 2020. False: no Dragon spacecraft was launched to Mars by the end of 2020, for example because SpaceX cancelled the Red Dragon programme or moved Mars plans to Starship.

Evidence

  1. SpaceX informed NASA of slowdown in its commercial Mars program Spaceflight Now · 18 August 2017
    “Confirming rumors and suspicions that SpaceX is adjusting its plans to begin dispatching robotic landers to Mars, NASA officials said the commercial space company has informed the agency that it has put its Red Dragon program on the back burner.”
  2. SpaceX informed NASA of slowdown in its commercial Mars program Spaceflight Now · 18 August 2017
    “SpaceX confirmed earlier this year the launch of the experimental lander on a Falcon Heavy rocket had slipped to 2020.”
  3. SpaceX Red Dragon - Wikipedia Wikipedia
    “Without propulsive landing, Dragon could not land on Mars, and the Red Dragon program was shelved.”
  4. SpaceX Red Dragon - Wikipedia Wikipedia
    “In July 2017, Elon Musk announced that development would be halted and resources redirected to Starship”

Reasoning

In August 2017, Spaceflight Now reported that NASA officials said SpaceX had put its Red Dragon programme on the back burner, and that the lander's launch had already slipped to 2020 (E1, E2). Wikipedia says that in July 2017 Musk announced that development would stop and resources would move to Starship, and that the programme was shelved (E3, E4). This is positive evidence that the programme was halted and shelved, with resources redirected to Starship [E3][E4], which matches the kind of outcome the criteria name as false. Nothing in the evidence shows any Dragon spacecraft being launched to Mars by 31 December 2020.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2 propulsive lander to Mars in about two years, and probably another Dragon mission in 2020.” (said 16 June 2017). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_ec48bb41f144, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ec48bb41f144

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made. The same data is on Hugging Face under CC BY 4.0.